Northwestern

As I write this, I really don't have a good feel for how this one will turn out.

On paper, the stats make it look a lot like Indiana and Minnesota. Northwestern cannot pass the ball. They are 104th in passing offense and average one more yard on the ground than through the air. They are also 105th in scoring offense at 16.1/game - and that includes the 38 points they put up on MSU. Defensively, they don't stop the run or the pass (71st and 80th) and they are 75th in points against. Even though they can run, they don't control the clock (84th in TOP) and they turn the ball over (-5 for the year). They are woeful at 3rd down conversions (92nd - 34.4%), and woeful and stopping teams on 3rd down (82nd - 40.3%). They can't punt (100th), and don't make tackles for loss (105th). Our stats in all these categories should be well-known by now.

History makes this game feel like Illinois. The Bucks last 4 visits to Evanston have not gone well. While we are 3-1 s/u, we are 0-4 ATS. In 2004, Nw beat the No. 7 Buckeyes in OT, 33-27 (we were 11 point favorites). In 2002, our freshman RB fumbled 3 times and we won 27-16, despite being ranked No. 5 and favored by 25. In 1998, No. 1 OSU beat the Wildcats 36-10 but did not cover the 28.5. In 1994, the No. 7 Bucks were favored by 15, but squeaked out a 17-15 win. In all of these games, Northwestern was unranked and had a record of .500 or worse.

The spread for this game is 23 with a conservative over/under of 43. This year, the Wildcats are 0-2 as a home dog, getting blasted by Purdue 10-31, and choking one away to MSU 38-41. Weather should not be a factor, as the most recent forecast I saw was 52 degrees with winds only at 13 mph.

I think the difference between Illinois and Northwestern is their respective defenses. The Illini were able to take advantage of Alex Boone's absence and show why Tim Schaefer should not be playing much. They stacked the box and our conservative play calling helped. Also, Beanie Wells' fumbling problems took away one of our weapons and allowed Pittman to get beat up. Northwestern does not have the defense that Illinois had, and I think the coaching staff will make adjustments so that we don't have a repeat. And when you think about the Illinois game, it really was not that bad. We were up 17-0 and driving to another score in the 3rd when Wells fumbled. If he holds on, it probably goes to 24-0 and we have no worries.

All that being said, I would take the 23. If Ohio State gets up, I would not be surprised that several people starting resting to avoid an injury. I hear we have a pretty big game coming up. MTB says:

Ohio State 7 14 7 7 - 35
Northwestern 0 3 3 10 - 16