Penn State

Been a little off the last two weeks, but I think I have this game pegged. Pucker-up Buckeye fans, and I don't mean your lips.

Penn State is a Jekyll and Hyde team. Away, they are 1-2 and getting outscored 65-72. At home, though, they are 5-0 and outscoring their opponents by a margin of 200-48. Now before we get too excited, the only team with a pulse that came to Happy Valley was Wisconsin. The other victims were Fla. Int'l (0-7), Notre Dame (1-7), Buffalo (3-5), and Iowa (3-5). The Lions did paste the Badgers by a score of 34-7, which either speaks to how bad the Badgers really are, or how good Penn State is at home.

There is also the annoying stat that OSU is 2-5 at Penn State since the Lions joined the Big Ten (1993). Tressel is 1-2. There are some mitigating factors. A closer look reveals that in 3 of those 5 losses, Penn State was ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in the nation - not so this year. One of Tressel's losses came in his first year at OSU (2001) with a marginal team. The 2005 loss came after a bye week, and we all know how Tressel does with a week off in mid-season (0-3).

When the games are at Happy Valley, the team that is favored is 5-2 straight up, but only 3-4 ATS. If you throw in games played at the 'Shoe, the favored team is

11-1 straight up (the teams have split 2 games in which neither was ranked). This week, Ohio State is favored by 4, and is higher ranked.

Statistically, these teams are mirror-images of each other. Average rushing yards, passing yards, total yards and scoring on offense are nearly identical. On defense, Penn State is No. 2 in the Big Ten in Rush D, Pass D, Total D and Scoring D (we all know who is No. 1). Penn State is No. 1 in the Nation in Sacks, and No. 5 nationally in Tackles for Loss. They are also better than OSU in Punting (2 v. 14). Turnover margin is equal.

Pundits on ESPN are saying that they key to this game is QB Anthony Morelli. I disagree. The Silver Bullets will shut him down. The key is Todd Boeckman. He will likely not be able to take 7 step drops and wait for Robiskie to go deep or for someone to get open over the middle. Slow developing plays will lead to sacks. Sacks (or pressure) lead to turnovers. (Turnovers lead to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering, and suffering leads to the dark side - but I digress). Penn State loves "traditional" offenses. They ate up ND and Wisconsin. They had more trouble with Buffalo (45-24) and Indiana (36-31), both who run spreads. Lining up with 1-2 TE and running Beanie between the tackles plays to PSU's strength. OSU needs to go 4 and 5 wide at times and have Boeckman in the shotgun or taking only 3 step drops. That will cool the heels of the D-line and get the LBs back peddling. Then we can hit them with Beanie up the middle and Saine around the edges. (Michigan and Illinois both rushed for more than 160 yards against the PSU defense, so it can be done). Boeckman cannot throw picks (recall that Troy Smith's INT deep in OSU territory was the difference in the 2005 game). PSU's offense is not a threat as they like to rush 50 times per game keeping it out of Morelli's hands, mainly because he's more than capable of finding wide-open Buckeyes.

I hope I am wrong (again). I hope the Buckeyes offense is clicking and gets a comfortable lead early and wins by 20. But I don't think so. I think you better plan to stay up late. MTB says: Ohio State 16, Penn State 13 (in OT).

Gibberish

Please do not be concerned for my well-being. This is only a test:

watermelon, buddha, severus snape, lactose intolerance.

Michigan State

Ah, the Spartans. Always an entertaining game. In 1993, my buddy and I watched the Buckeyes kick 5 FGs to win 28-21. Something happened in 1998, but at that time I lived in Arizona and did not see that game. In 2004, freshman Ted Ginn, Jr. scored 3 TDs, including a 57 yard slant pass with 2 minutes remaining. And in 2005, Ashton Youboty made a HUGE play that I believe turned the Buckeyes' season around, and led to this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvrRvUYRdD8

The Sparties are No. 1 in the Big Ten in Total Offense (467.00/game) and Scoring Offense (36.86/game). They are No. 9 nationally in rushing offense (242.71) giving the ball nearly 20 times a game to Javon Ringer (136 yards/game) and the big ball Caulcrick (73 yards/game). And they are not one dimensional, as Brian Hoyer passes for more yards per game than Boeckman does.

Defensively, the Spartans are No. 2 nationally in Sacks (4.14/game) and No. 3 nationally in Tackles for loss (9.43/game). That's better than us. Now, as you know, in College, sacks (and TFLs) count against a team's rushing yards. Yet, despite their lofty rankings, MSU still gives up over 100 yards per game on the ground. So, you can run on them as both Pitt and Wisconsin rushed for 250+ yards against them. Their pass defense is suspect (68th at 231.14/game) as Northwestern through for 520 yards, Bowling Green for 300, and Wisconsin for 250. And despite throwing on virtually every down, Northwestern was only sacked once in that game. (The Sparties only got to Wisky's QB 2x, so they have loaded up their sack totals against UAB, BG, ND and Indiana).

Fortunately, their strength plays to our strength. If you haven't been paying attention, the Buckeyes are 2nd in Rush D (62.86), 2nd in Pass D (149.00), 1st in Total D (211.86) and 1st in Scoring D (6.57). While MSU can run and pass, they cannot protect their QB as they rank 83rd in Sacks allowed. They can't punt well either, ranking 105th in net punting.

The line is currently OSU by 17.5 (the over/under is 51.5). Maybe it's just me but the spread strikes me as high and my knee-jerk reaction is to take Sparty and the points. After all, in the last 5 games in the Shoe between the two the average score has been OSU 30, MSU 21. But further research reveals that MSU is 2-6 ATS (against the spread) v. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 12-4 ATS v. teams with winning records, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Vegas must know something.

I think MSU's offense will be the best we've seen to date and they will move the ball on occasion. However, we will get some key sacks and their weak punting will give us shorter fields to play on. Mark Dantonio is no John L. Smith, and MSU will be a bear to play in 1-2 years, but they won't get us this year.

MTB says: Ohio State 41-17

Purdue Retrospective

I heard some commentators say that the Bucks win over Purdue was a statement game. Nearly shutting out one of the highest powered offenses and winning easily on the road at night puts the Buckeyes near the top teams.

I got home from a wedding just in time to see us go up 17-0. The part that I saw ended up having us being outscored 6-7. The defense - obviously - was outstanding. But I have never been so frustrated at the Bucks as I was watching this win.

1. Did Boeckman ever plant his feet on his throws? They always seemed to be moving or he was throwing off his back foot.

2. Why the obsession with the deep ball? I can understand establishing it early, but after you get up 14-0, or 17-0, why limit yourself to only that option? I saw one screen pass to Roy Small, one slant to Brian Hartline and one deep in to Robiskie (that he had to climb the ladder to get). The slant to Hartline went for 30+ yards. Why not try another? Instead we get "telegraphed" (per Herbie), floating, underthrown deep balls. I don't know if it was Tressel or Boeckman, but could we throw different routes?

3. Boeckman's progression reading seems painfully slow. There were 2-3 sacks where Boeckman held the ball - presumably waiting for Robiskie to get open 35 yards downfield - while Purdue came at him with pressure. On one 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1, the TE was wide open on a 3 yard crossing route - and was standing right in front of Boeckman! Where's the comprehension that if the defense is bringing extra guys, go to the TE or RB dump off?

4. I understand Mo Wells is the change of pace back, and most times when he is in there the package of plays for him call for no FB. But when Beanie nicks his ankle, we have the lead, we can't throw (because we only throw deep INTs) how about putting in a FB to block for Wells? Mo can get 6 or 7 yards sometimes without a FB, but the rest of the time it's going to be 1 or 2 yards, especially when Purdue knows we are going to run.

The offense cost the D the shut out and if I was on the D I'd be pissed. I'm still not sold on our offense and I don't think we are a top ten team, let alone No. 3.

Kent State

Kent State. Nothing stirs up the juices like another MAC game. Look, I hope I'm wrong because a buddy is going to the game - but I think this is going to be a snoozer. Kent State is No. 11 in rushing. They can't pass, they can't protect the QB and they can't score. But they can run the ball. On defense, they can stop the pass, mainly because people run against them to the tune of 150 yards per game.

Noon start against a non-conference opponent on the Big Ten Network, after an 8 p.m. start on the road v. an undefeated conference foe. This game has "let-down" written all over it. Add the fact that Beanie is banged up (and wouldn't you rest him here?) so that means we'll get a heavy dose of Mo Wells and Saine - good but not the same. Our defense will shut them down, and our offense will manage some points. But I'd take Kent plus the 30.5 points.

MTB says: Ohio State 31, Kent 7

Purdue

A night game in the Big Ten v. a ranked opponent. Should you be scared? Yes, Tressel's Big Ten night game record is only 4-3 which should be cause for concern. However, upon further review he's 0-3 at night coming off a bye, and he's 4-0 at night coming off a win. Last I checked, OSU played last week.

Why is Purdue 5-0 and only ranked No. 23? Take a look at their schedule. If you thought Ohio State's was the softest, then you were sadly mistaken. Purdue has defeated Toledo (currently 1-4), 1-AA Eastern Illinois (3-2), Central Michigan (2-3), Minnesota (1-4) and Notre Dame (0-5). That's a combined 7-18. By comparison, the Buckeyes' opponents are 11-14.

Offensively, the teams are not that far apart. Purdue has the total offense edge 495 to 423, with the Buckeyes having better balance (209 rush, 214 pass) v. Purdue (186 rush, 309 pass). Purdue also scores 10 more points per game (45.4 to 35.8). Looking at the individuals, they also have similar stats. Chris "Beanie" Wells averages 19 - 111 - 1 (rush/yds/TD) and Purdue's Kory Sheets averages 18 - 106 - 1. Brian Robiskie has a per game avg. of 5 - 106 -1 (rec/yds/TD) and Purdue's Dorien Bryant comes in at 8 - 90 - 1. The offensive lines have each given up 4 sacks total all year.

The difference is in the defense. Now, both teams have played similar schedules - 1-2 MAC teams, a 1-AA team, and Minnesota - but the stats are not similar. Ohio State is in the top ten in all defensive categories: No. 4 Rush Defense (55 yds/game); No. 6 Pass Defense (142.6); No. 2 in Total Defense (197.6) and No. 3 in Scoring Defense (7.2 points/game). Meanwhile, Purdue is No. 44 in Rush D (127.4); No. 92 in Pass D (257); No. 68 in Total D (384.4); and No. 38 in Scoring D (20.4). The Buckeyes also have 4 more sacks and 10 more tackles for loss than the Boilermakers. Turnovers are roughly equal.

So Purdue either let their opponents get lots of yardage during garbage time, or their defense is not that strong. I think it's the latter. Toledo, Central and Minnesota weren't running the ball when they were trailing, so Purdue must be soft against the run. Their rush defense actually dropped 20 yards a game after playing ND last week. And ND's QBs (whoever they play now) threw for nearly 400 yards v. the Boilermakers. The same QBs who stand behind a sieve for an offensive line (which is why the Irish cannot run) and who had been sacked 7 times per game going into Purdue were only sacked twice. Purdue does not seem to put much pressure on the QB in addition to not stopping the run.

So, the statistics favor Boeckman having time to throw and Wells being able to run. Which one Tressel will use first to open up the other remains to be seen.

But West Lafayette is no picnic. Purdue is 2-1 v. Ohio State the Buckeyes last two trips to Ross-Ade Stadium. Purdue beat us 24-17 in 2004 (when Troy Smith fumbled at the 10). In 2000, Drew Brees threw a bomb with 2 minutes to go to beat us 31-27. In 2002, Ohio State won comfortably 10-6 (the "Holy Buckeye" game). Then again, Ohio State is 2-1 v. Purdue (Tiller era) when both are ranked. Purdue is 0-1 at home at night under Tiller and 1-3 at night under Tiller all-time. Purdue is also 0-3 as a home dog to a ranked opponent since 2002. And I got these beauties from Purdue's own site: When both Purdue and the opponent are ranked, Purdue is 20-39-3; when Purdue's opponent is ranked No. 4 in the nation, Purdue is 2-14.

I think the Buckeyes are gelling. And rolling. I think this game will be a lot like Iowa was last year - a lot of emotion early, but the Buckeye machine will steadily grind Purdue down. The spread is 7 which seems large, which means Vegas knows something. MTB says: Ohio State 33, Purdue 17