Penn State

Been a little off the last two weeks, but I think I have this game pegged. Pucker-up Buckeye fans, and I don't mean your lips.

Penn State is a Jekyll and Hyde team. Away, they are 1-2 and getting outscored 65-72. At home, though, they are 5-0 and outscoring their opponents by a margin of 200-48. Now before we get too excited, the only team with a pulse that came to Happy Valley was Wisconsin. The other victims were Fla. Int'l (0-7), Notre Dame (1-7), Buffalo (3-5), and Iowa (3-5). The Lions did paste the Badgers by a score of 34-7, which either speaks to how bad the Badgers really are, or how good Penn State is at home.

There is also the annoying stat that OSU is 2-5 at Penn State since the Lions joined the Big Ten (1993). Tressel is 1-2. There are some mitigating factors. A closer look reveals that in 3 of those 5 losses, Penn State was ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in the nation - not so this year. One of Tressel's losses came in his first year at OSU (2001) with a marginal team. The 2005 loss came after a bye week, and we all know how Tressel does with a week off in mid-season (0-3).

When the games are at Happy Valley, the team that is favored is 5-2 straight up, but only 3-4 ATS. If you throw in games played at the 'Shoe, the favored team is

11-1 straight up (the teams have split 2 games in which neither was ranked). This week, Ohio State is favored by 4, and is higher ranked.

Statistically, these teams are mirror-images of each other. Average rushing yards, passing yards, total yards and scoring on offense are nearly identical. On defense, Penn State is No. 2 in the Big Ten in Rush D, Pass D, Total D and Scoring D (we all know who is No. 1). Penn State is No. 1 in the Nation in Sacks, and No. 5 nationally in Tackles for Loss. They are also better than OSU in Punting (2 v. 14). Turnover margin is equal.

Pundits on ESPN are saying that they key to this game is QB Anthony Morelli. I disagree. The Silver Bullets will shut him down. The key is Todd Boeckman. He will likely not be able to take 7 step drops and wait for Robiskie to go deep or for someone to get open over the middle. Slow developing plays will lead to sacks. Sacks (or pressure) lead to turnovers. (Turnovers lead to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering, and suffering leads to the dark side - but I digress). Penn State loves "traditional" offenses. They ate up ND and Wisconsin. They had more trouble with Buffalo (45-24) and Indiana (36-31), both who run spreads. Lining up with 1-2 TE and running Beanie between the tackles plays to PSU's strength. OSU needs to go 4 and 5 wide at times and have Boeckman in the shotgun or taking only 3 step drops. That will cool the heels of the D-line and get the LBs back peddling. Then we can hit them with Beanie up the middle and Saine around the edges. (Michigan and Illinois both rushed for more than 160 yards against the PSU defense, so it can be done). Boeckman cannot throw picks (recall that Troy Smith's INT deep in OSU territory was the difference in the 2005 game). PSU's offense is not a threat as they like to rush 50 times per game keeping it out of Morelli's hands, mainly because he's more than capable of finding wide-open Buckeyes.

I hope I am wrong (again). I hope the Buckeyes offense is clicking and gets a comfortable lead early and wins by 20. But I don't think so. I think you better plan to stay up late. MTB says: Ohio State 16, Penn State 13 (in OT).