Purdue

A night game in the Big Ten v. a ranked opponent. Should you be scared? Yes, Tressel's Big Ten night game record is only 4-3 which should be cause for concern. However, upon further review he's 0-3 at night coming off a bye, and he's 4-0 at night coming off a win. Last I checked, OSU played last week.

Why is Purdue 5-0 and only ranked No. 23? Take a look at their schedule. If you thought Ohio State's was the softest, then you were sadly mistaken. Purdue has defeated Toledo (currently 1-4), 1-AA Eastern Illinois (3-2), Central Michigan (2-3), Minnesota (1-4) and Notre Dame (0-5). That's a combined 7-18. By comparison, the Buckeyes' opponents are 11-14.

Offensively, the teams are not that far apart. Purdue has the total offense edge 495 to 423, with the Buckeyes having better balance (209 rush, 214 pass) v. Purdue (186 rush, 309 pass). Purdue also scores 10 more points per game (45.4 to 35.8). Looking at the individuals, they also have similar stats. Chris "Beanie" Wells averages 19 - 111 - 1 (rush/yds/TD) and Purdue's Kory Sheets averages 18 - 106 - 1. Brian Robiskie has a per game avg. of 5 - 106 -1 (rec/yds/TD) and Purdue's Dorien Bryant comes in at 8 - 90 - 1. The offensive lines have each given up 4 sacks total all year.

The difference is in the defense. Now, both teams have played similar schedules - 1-2 MAC teams, a 1-AA team, and Minnesota - but the stats are not similar. Ohio State is in the top ten in all defensive categories: No. 4 Rush Defense (55 yds/game); No. 6 Pass Defense (142.6); No. 2 in Total Defense (197.6) and No. 3 in Scoring Defense (7.2 points/game). Meanwhile, Purdue is No. 44 in Rush D (127.4); No. 92 in Pass D (257); No. 68 in Total D (384.4); and No. 38 in Scoring D (20.4). The Buckeyes also have 4 more sacks and 10 more tackles for loss than the Boilermakers. Turnovers are roughly equal.

So Purdue either let their opponents get lots of yardage during garbage time, or their defense is not that strong. I think it's the latter. Toledo, Central and Minnesota weren't running the ball when they were trailing, so Purdue must be soft against the run. Their rush defense actually dropped 20 yards a game after playing ND last week. And ND's QBs (whoever they play now) threw for nearly 400 yards v. the Boilermakers. The same QBs who stand behind a sieve for an offensive line (which is why the Irish cannot run) and who had been sacked 7 times per game going into Purdue were only sacked twice. Purdue does not seem to put much pressure on the QB in addition to not stopping the run.

So, the statistics favor Boeckman having time to throw and Wells being able to run. Which one Tressel will use first to open up the other remains to be seen.

But West Lafayette is no picnic. Purdue is 2-1 v. Ohio State the Buckeyes last two trips to Ross-Ade Stadium. Purdue beat us 24-17 in 2004 (when Troy Smith fumbled at the 10). In 2000, Drew Brees threw a bomb with 2 minutes to go to beat us 31-27. In 2002, Ohio State won comfortably 10-6 (the "Holy Buckeye" game). Then again, Ohio State is 2-1 v. Purdue (Tiller era) when both are ranked. Purdue is 0-1 at home at night under Tiller and 1-3 at night under Tiller all-time. Purdue is also 0-3 as a home dog to a ranked opponent since 2002. And I got these beauties from Purdue's own site: When both Purdue and the opponent are ranked, Purdue is 20-39-3; when Purdue's opponent is ranked No. 4 in the nation, Purdue is 2-14.

I think the Buckeyes are gelling. And rolling. I think this game will be a lot like Iowa was last year - a lot of emotion early, but the Buckeye machine will steadily grind Purdue down. The spread is 7 which seems large, which means Vegas knows something. MTB says: Ohio State 33, Purdue 17