Ah, the Spartans. Always an entertaining game. In 1993, my buddy and I watched the Buckeyes kick 5 FGs to win 28-21. Something happened in 1998, but at that time I lived in Arizona and did not see that game. In 2004, freshman Ted Ginn, Jr. scored 3 TDs, including a 57 yard slant pass with 2 minutes remaining. And in 2005, Ashton Youboty made a HUGE play that I believe turned the Buckeyes' season around, and led to this:
The Sparties are No. 1 in the Big Ten in Total Offense (467.00/game) and Scoring Offense (36.86/game). They are No. 9 nationally in rushing offense (242.71) giving the ball nearly 20 times a game to Javon Ringer (136 yards/game) and the big ball Caulcrick (73 yards/game). And they are not one dimensional, as Brian Hoyer passes for more yards per game than Boeckman does.
Defensively, the Spartans are No. 2 nationally in Sacks (4.14/game) and No. 3 nationally in Tackles for loss (9.43/game). That's better than us. Now, as you know, in College, sacks (and TFLs) count against a team's rushing yards. Yet, despite their lofty rankings, MSU still gives up over 100 yards per game on the ground. So, you can run on them as both Pitt and Wisconsin rushed for 250+ yards against them. Their pass defense is suspect (68th at 231.14/game) as Northwestern through for 520 yards, Bowling Green for 300, and Wisconsin for 250. And despite throwing on virtually every down, Northwestern was only sacked once in that game. (The Sparties only got to Wisky's QB 2x, so they have loaded up their sack totals against UAB, BG, ND and Indiana).
Fortunately, their strength plays to our strength. If you haven't been paying attention, the Buckeyes are 2nd in Rush D (62.86), 2nd in Pass D (149.00), 1st in Total D (211.86) and 1st in Scoring D (6.57). While MSU can run and pass, they cannot protect their QB as they rank 83rd in Sacks allowed. They can't punt well either, ranking 105th in net punting.
The line is currently OSU by 17.5 (the over/under is 51.5). Maybe it's just me but the spread strikes me as high and my knee-jerk reaction is to take Sparty and the points. After all, in the last 5 games in the Shoe between the two the average score has been OSU 30, MSU 21. But further research reveals that MSU is 2-6 ATS (against the spread) v. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 12-4 ATS v. teams with winning records, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Vegas must know something.
I think MSU's offense will be the best we've seen to date and they will move the ball on occasion. However, we will get some key sacks and their weak punting will give us shorter fields to play on. Mark Dantonio is no John L. Smith, and MSU will be a bear to play in 1-2 years, but they won't get us this year.
MTB says: Ohio State 41-17
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