Wisconsin

Wisconsin.  This says it all.

You know, back when the season started, everyone was talking about next week’s trip to Northwestern being the “trap” game.  “Buckeyes better watch out for the Wildcats.”  Now, it seems (at least to me) that everyone is talking about the Northwestern matchup (with plans for ESPN College Game Day to be there) that this week’s game against Wisky is now the “trap” game.

The Badgers should be 4-0.   They should be No. 11 in the country.  They got jobbed in the desert and now are almost an afterthought.   But look at these stats - Wisconsin is No. 3 in the Nation in Rushing Offense, No. 12 in Total Offense, No. 6 in Rushing Defense,  No. 6 in Total Defense, and No. 10 in Scoring Defense.  Those rankings certainly get my attention.  They only lost 3 starters on offense – one of them being RB Monte Ball – so let’s look to see if they miss him?

So, Sophomore RB Melvin Gordon (25) is leading the nation in rushing with 624 yards, on only 53 carries!  That’s 12 yards every time he gets the ball!   Their starter, Senior RB James White (20), is No. 11 in the nation with 442 yards.  Both those guys have more yards that Jordan Hall, who comes in at No. 13 with 422.  Verdict:  Ball not missed at all.  They did lose 5 starters on defense, but you can see the rankings above, so apparently they filled those holes.  These Badgers look impressive, and thus, I have a bad feeling about this.

Yet, there is something about Wisconsin when we play them.  Even when we suck, things like this happen (c’mon – you knew I would link to this).  Wisconsin is 1-6 v. The Ohio State University in our last 7 match-ups.  They are 4-8-2 v. Ohio State when both teams are ranked, a not impressive 4-15-2 against top 5 teams, and a horrible 15-60-2 against ranked teams.  Granted, they did beat Ohio State twice – once when the Buckeyes were No. 1 (2010) and again when we were No. 3 (2003).  But both of those wins came in Madison and I think that is important.   Wisconsin is 0-4 in their last four Big Ten away night games and 1-7 in their last 8 Big Ten road openers.

Well, you say, they have a new coach so things are different.   Not so much.  First, Coach Gary Anderson (who was Urban Meyer’s DL coach in Utah) is 0-3 v. Top 10, 1-7 v. ranked teams, and 9-18 on the road as a head coach.  Sounds like the Badgers.   Wisconsin won their first two games at home v. UMass (0-4) and Tennessee Tech (FCS).  Sounds like a Barry Alvarez/Brett Bielema schedule to me.  (Speaking of Bielema, I’m so glad he’s gone, but can someone explain how he ended up married to her?)  Ok, where was I . . . ?

So, digging a little deeper, it looks like the Badgers have padded their stats against suspect competition (an accusation that can be made about the Buckeyes as well).  I mean, Arizona State, Purdue, and UMass are all in the bottom 15 of all FBS schools in rushing offense.  I don’t think one game v. Bucky Badger put them there – I think those teams don’t run the ball.   And it shouldn’t be too much of a shocker to you that UMass, Purdue, and even ASU aren’t that great at stopping the run either.  So throw those national rankings out the window because Wisky has not seen any competition like us yet.

But we haven’t seen anyone as tough as them either.  But for all their returning starters, Phil Steele only had 2 Badgers total on his 1^st and 2^nd team Big Ten defenses (compared to 6 for us – the team that was supposed to be gutted on D).  Wisconsin’s secondary is green and I believe susceptible to attack.   As they creep in to stop Carlos Hyde, Jordan Hall, and Dontre Wilson, either Braxton or Kenny will pop one over their heads to Devin Smith.    Wisconsin Sophomore QB Joel Stave is a good one and will get better, but I don’t think he’s quite to the level of Russell Wilson who led the Badgers to 2 late 4^th quarter TDs in 2011.   As for Braxton, I’m not worried about rust.   I think he will be fine, and I think he plays the entire game.

 Vegas started the Buckeyes as 7.5 favorites, but the line has crept down to 7.    More interesting  is that the Over/Under started at 60 and is now down to 54.5.   Apparently Vegas thinks this will be more of a slugfest.    According to Wisconsin’s athletic department, the Badgers broke the Buckeyes’ 19 game win streak in 2003 when it was the longest in the nation.   The Buckeyes currently have the nation’s longest win streak at 16.  But the UW AD also noted that the Badgers haven’t lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct. 10, 2009 when Ohio State beat them 31-13 (a span of 52 games).   It’s time for one of those streaks to end . . .

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 24.

Florida A&M

This will be short.  I think we are playing Florida A&M because we couldn’t find anyone else.   For a few years we had “TBA” slotted here and I think we ran out of time.  The Rattlers were all that was left.   No one is happy about this.  Players want to play big games, not these glorified scrimmages.   Coaches worry about players getting hurt.  Poll watchers will not elevate OSU no matter how bad the score gets.   It’s a lose-lose weekend for most.

Don’t worry, there won’t be any moments like this.   Florida A&M is a bad FCS team.  They are 109^th in total offense . . . among FCS teams!  98^th in 3^rd down conversions, 87^th is scoring offense, and 109^th in fewest penalties committed.   They are compiling these statistics v. SAMFORD (not Stanford).   Let me put it another way – thru three games the Florida A&M offense has rushed for 287 yards . . . as a team!   Jordan Hall has 402 yards by himself!  Their QB has 31 completions TOTAL!  In three games!  Well, 36 if you count the 5 he’s thrown to the other teams.  Guiton has 41 in 2 games.

Vegas set the opening line at 57.   Fifty-freaking-seven?  It has now fallen to 50 and rightly so.   The Buckeyes’ offense may be prolific but we have scored more than 57 points only three times in the past 16+ seasons (2012 – 63 v. Nebraska; 2010 – 73 v. Eastern Michigan;  2007 – 58 v. Northwestern).    Covering 57 points would take you all the way back to the first two weeks of 1996, when the Buckeyes opened with a 70-7 win over Rice followed by a 72-0 whitewash of Pitt.  I think the wiseguys took notice and starting taking the Rattlers and the points, which lowered the spread.    There is still no Over/Under for this game and I don’t think Vegas will set one.

Urban’s plan for this game is probably the following:  start Braxton and the first teamers and get it to 28-0 at the end of the first, and 45-7 at half.   Then play Guiton and second/third teamers in third, then rest Guiton and play 4^th/5^th teamers in fourth quarter.    Just make sure no one gets hurt – not with Wisky and Northwestern coming up.   Get the rust off of Braxton and Carlos Hyde, and keep everyone healthy – even Kenny Guiton.

Last year, the Rattlers went to Norman, Oklahoma in Week 2, suffered a 13-69 beating, but got a nice paycheck.   This week, they’ll get a bigger paycheck, but I think a similar beating.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 66-14.   Ohio State covers the new line, not the initial line. 

To date:  3-0 S/U.  1-2 ATS.  

California

“Got no feel, I got no rhythm.  I just keep losing the beat.” – Freddie Mercury.

Well, after two games I am 2-0 S/U, but a woeful 0-2 ATS.   And this week we deal with (a) a rare non-conference road trip; (b) the uncertain status of Braxton Miller; and (c) a completely new system and coach at Cal.   Should be easy.

Way back when we scheduled the home-and-home with Cal, they were a top 10 team battling with USC for Pac-10 supremacy.  Then they nose-dived into the Pac-12 North basement and head coach Jeff Tedford was asked to leave.  But Tedford was on the sidelines last year when his (eventual) 3-9 Bears took OSU to the wire.  (Highlights with awful music can be found here).  Cal outgained Ohio State 512-412 in that game.  Thankfully, their FG kicker was 0-3, including a key miss late in the 4^th.

Now Cal has Daniel “Sonny” Dykes as Coach.  Sonny is the son of William “Spike” Dykes, who was the HC at Texas Tech for 14 years.  Sonny came to Cal from Louisiana Tech, where he was 22-15 during his 3 years there.   What we can glean from Sonny’s record at La Tech was that in 2012 they were No. 1 in Total Offense and No. 1 in Scoring Offense.   They were also No. 120 in Total Defense and No. 116 in Scoring Defense.   To illustrate, here’s the box score of when Texas A&M played La. Tech).

Things appear to be taking similar form at Cal this year.    After two games, Cal is No. 1 in Passing offense and No. 9 in total offense.  They are averaging 33.5 points/game which places them 55^th.   On defense, they are 109^th against the run, 104^th against the pass, 116^th in total defense, and 104^th in scoring defense.   “Bear” in mind that their game last week was against FCS Portland State.   Cal was a 30.5 point favorite and only won 37-30.  In week one, Cal fell at home to Northwestern, 44-30.

Cal starts Freshman Jared Goff (9) at QB and while he’s No. 1 in passing yards per game, he’s 60^th in passing efficiency with a rating of 137.2.   He has 3 INTs to go with his 4 TDs.  Neither Miller nor Guiton are officially ranked in passing efficiency yet, but Miller had a rating of 157.05 v. Buffalo, and Guiton had a 129.89 rating v. SDState, so that gives you a comparison.   From the highlights above, you should remember RB Brendan Bigelow (5), who busted two long runs v. the Buckeyes.  He’s back and has 33 carries for 136 yards.   Freshman Khalfani Muhammad (29) has 16 rushes for 82 yards.  Both are in the range of 5’9” 180 so they are the small guys who are supposed to bust the big plays, but that has not happened much yet.   Since Goff throws nearly 70% of the time, Cal has a host of players who have caught passes.  Sophomores Bryce Treggs (1) and Chris Harper (6) get the most attention.

There is no one on the Cal defense to note.

Ohio State is 6-1 v. Cal, but the last visit to Berkeley was 1972 (we won 35-18).  The more important stat for me though is how the Buckeyes do with non-conference away games.  The answer?  Pretty good.   Since 1982, Ohio State is 12-2-1 on the road v. non-conference opponents who are not from the Pac-12.   But, against that conference, the Buckeyes are 2-5.  Hmm.  We have lost to USC and Washington twice, and once to UCLA, while the two wins were against Arizona and Washington. 

The Buckeyes enter the game as the No. 4 team in the latest AP poll, and Cal has not fared well in recent matchups against a top 10 team.  They have dropped 7 straight and are 3-4 ATS in that time.  In home games, they are 0-4 S/U and 1-3 ATS.   Since Cal is under new management, I looked at Sonny Dykes record against top opponents when he was at La. Tech.   The Bulldogs were 0-3 S/U and 2-1 ATS v. top 25 teams in his three years there.

The last cause for concern is that this is technically a night game (because it starts after 5 p.m. ET, even though it will be 4 p.m. PT at kickoff).  The recent versions of the Buckeyes are not at their best on the road under the lights with losses at Nebraska and Miami, and a narrow win over Indiana last year.   

So, we know Cal with throw a lot and we think that Cal will score.  We know that Cal will allow Ohio State to score.  So, at first blush, the O/U of 66 seems like it should fall.   Ohio State started out as a 15 point favorite and that has increased to 16 with the information that Braxton Miller may be ready to play.   I don’t know if it will matter too much if Braxton plays or not, because the Cal defense is just that bad.   And if my memory is correct, Guiton has played some QB on the road and he doesn’t seem like a guy who is going to be fazed.   I think our defense is much better than Portland State’s and probably better than Northwestern’s.   I think Jared Goff will not see another secondary like ours.  I think it will be a close game for 2.5 – 3 quarters with the Buckeyes eventually pulling away and covering. 

Schaef says:  Ohio State 47, Cal 30.

San Diego State

The good thing about posting this on Wednesday is that you have plenty of time to run to Walgreen’s, Rite Aid, or CVS to get your Tums, Rolaids, or Maalox.   You will need them Saturday as Ohio State plays the dreaded “Second Home Game.” 

I’m not exactly sure when the curse began, but my research points to 1987 when an unranked Oregon Ducks team gave the No. 5 ranked Buckeyes fits until we squeezed out a 24-14 win.   Since then, almost every season that Ohio State opens up with two home games played on consecutive weeks, the results are – how shall I put this? – less than impressive and sometimes downright scary.  Sure, there are some outliers – in 1996, Ohio State opened with a 70-7 whooping of Rice followed by an equally impressive 72-0 pounding of Pitt.  The next year we handled BG 44-13 in Week 2.   But that is about it.  (Note 2002’s 51-17 victory over Kent State came two weeks after our game one win over Texas Tech).

Since 2003, there have been 9 seasons in which Ohio State opened with home games in the first 2 weeks.  We are 7-2 straight up (2005 loss to Texas; 2009 loss to USC), but 2-7 ATS (we covered v. USC, and then against Miami, Fl in 2010).   Some of those heartburn games include Marshall in 2004 (24-21), Akron in 2007 (20-2), Ohio in 2008 (26-14), Toledo in 2011 (27-22), and UCF last year (31-16).  And another one of those games was against the very same San Diego State Aztecs that are coming on Saturday.  In 2003, after Krenzel and company disposed of Nationally Ranked Washington in Week One, we were a 30.5 point favorite v. San Diego State.   We won 16-13, and needed a Will Allen 100 yard INT return for a TD to win, as Krenzel was an awful 5-20 for 76 yards, and we committed 12 penalties for 124 yards.

This is actually San Diego State’s fourth trip to Columbus in the past 13 seasons.  In 2001, our game with them was delayed from September 15 to an open date in October due to 9/11.   Even though we were unranked (3-2), we were still a 22.5 point favorite.   San Diego State scored first and led 12-6 at the half, but Ohio State managed 3 second half TDs for the win.  In 2003, San Diego State scored first again, but the Buckeyes led by 3 at the half and each team traded FGs in the very tense second half.  In 2005, San Diego State was a 27.5 point underdog, but scored first (again) on the first play of the game with an 80 yard TD strike.  We shut them down after that, allowing only 3 first downs, and slowly ground our way to the 27-6 win. 

So, we have Ohio State’s horrible history in Second Home Games, combined with San Diego State, who has scored first each of the three times they played the Bucks, and who has covered the spread in each game.  With Vegas rating Ohio State as a 28 point favorite with an over/under of 54, this should be an easy bet.  Take the Aztecs and bet the under.

Yet, San Diego State lost last week.   Not only did they lose, but they lost at home to FCS’ Eastern Illinois, when the Aztecs were favored by 14.   Oh, the score was Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19.   So, maybe they suck?   I don’t think so.   I think last week was a combination of a lot of bad things for the Aztecs.   They have 15 starters returning from a 9-4 team that tied for the MWC title and played in a bowl game.  They have a good running game that they had to abandon when they fell so far behind last week.   Their QB ended up throwing for a career high in attempts, but also tossed 4 INTs which compounded their problems.  San Diego State has arguably the best front 7 in MWC (much like Buffalo & the MAC), but that defense was put in poor positions v. Eastern Illinois.   You can bet that they are going to want to prove that they are not as bad as they looked last week.  They will play better.   Pay attention to Junior RB (4) Adam Muema, who rushed for almost 1,500 yards last year.  Also, you will see a lot of Junior MLB (42) Jake Feeley, who led the Aztecs in sacks, and was 2^nd in both Tackles for Loss and Total Tackles. 

Now, I am sure Meyer will want the Buckeyes to iron out their problems from Week One v. Buffalo, and we get Roby, Barnett, and Rod Smith back.   And Urban is 43-4 in games in August & September, and beat SD State twice while at Utah.  The Aztecs are 0-11 in their last 11 v. Big Ten teams, and Ohio State is 7-1 v. teams from the Mountain West.   But this is not about the S/U win, because I think Ohio State wins this game.   The issue is the spread, and frankly I am shocked that the Vegas line has gone up from 24 to 28. 

Coach Rocky Long took over from Brady Hoke and is doing a great job.  They are 7-3 on the road, 2-4 v. Top 25 teams, and 5-2 after a loss with him on the sidelines.   They will play much better than they did last week, and Ohio State will win, but I don’t think it will be a blowout.   I cannot ignore the history of the Buckeyes’ of the Second Home Game nor the success San Diego State has had.  Take the Aztecs and the points.   The o/u is a push.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 34, San Diego State 20.