The good thing about posting this on Wednesday is that you
have plenty of time to run to Walgreen’s, Rite Aid, or CVS to get your Tums,
Rolaids, or Maalox. You will need them Saturday as Ohio State plays
the dreaded “Second Home Game.”
I’m not exactly sure when the curse began, but my research
points to 1987 when an unranked Oregon Ducks team gave the No. 5 ranked
Buckeyes fits until we squeezed out a 24-14 win. Since then, almost
every season that Ohio State opens up with two home games played on consecutive
weeks, the results are – how shall I put this? – less than impressive and
sometimes downright scary. Sure, there are some outliers – in 1996, Ohio
State opened with a 70-7 whooping of Rice followed by an equally impressive
72-0 pounding of Pitt. The next year we handled BG 44-13 in Week 2.
But that is about it. (Note 2002’s 51-17 victory over Kent
State came two weeks after our game one win over Texas Tech).
Since 2003, there have been 9 seasons in which Ohio State
opened with home games in the first 2 weeks. We are 7-2 straight up (2005
loss to Texas; 2009 loss to USC), but 2-7 ATS (we covered v. USC, and then
against Miami, Fl in 2010). Some of those heartburn games include
Marshall in 2004 (24-21), Akron in 2007 (20-2), Ohio in 2008 (26-14), Toledo in
2011 (27-22), and UCF last year (31-16). And another one of those games
was against the very same San Diego State Aztecs that are coming on
Saturday. In 2003, after Krenzel and company disposed of Nationally
Ranked Washington in Week One, we were a 30.5 point favorite v. San Diego
State. We won 16-13, and needed a Will Allen 100 yard INT return
for a TD to win, as Krenzel was an awful 5-20 for 76 yards, and we committed 12
penalties for 124 yards.
This is actually San Diego State’s fourth trip to Columbus
in the past 13 seasons. In 2001, our game with them was delayed from
September 15 to an open date in October due to 9/11. Even though we
were unranked (3-2), we were still a 22.5 point favorite. San Diego
State scored first and led 12-6 at the half, but Ohio State managed 3 second
half TDs for the win. In 2003, San Diego State scored first again, but
the Buckeyes led by 3 at the half and each team traded FGs in the very tense
second half. In 2005, San Diego State was a 27.5 point underdog, but
scored first (again) on the first play of the game with an 80 yard TD
strike. We shut them down after that, allowing only 3 first downs, and
slowly ground our way to the 27-6 win.
So, we have Ohio State’s horrible history in Second Home
Games, combined with San Diego State, who has scored first each of the three
times they played the Bucks, and who has covered the spread in each game.
With Vegas rating Ohio State as a 28 point favorite with an over/under of 54,
this should be an easy bet. Take the Aztecs and bet the under.
Yet, San Diego State lost last week. Not only
did they lose, but they lost at home to FCS’ Eastern Illinois, when the Aztecs
were favored by 14. Oh, the score was Eastern Illinois 40, San
Diego State 19. So, maybe they suck? I don’t think
so. I think last week was a combination of a lot of bad things for
the Aztecs. They have 15 starters returning from a 9-4 team that
tied for the MWC title and played in a bowl game. They have a good
running game that they had to abandon when they fell so far behind last
week. Their QB ended up throwing for a career high in attempts, but
also tossed 4 INTs which compounded their problems. San Diego State has
arguably the best front 7 in MWC (much like Buffalo & the MAC), but that
defense was put in poor positions v. Eastern Illinois. You can bet
that they are going to want to prove that they are not as bad as they looked
last week. They will play better. Pay attention to Junior RB
(4) Adam Muema, who rushed for almost 1,500 yards last year. Also, you
will see a lot of Junior MLB (42) Jake Feeley, who led the Aztecs in sacks, and
was 2nd in both Tackles for Loss and Total Tackles.
Now, I am sure Meyer will want the Buckeyes to iron out
their problems from Week One v. Buffalo, and we get Roby, Barnett, and Rod
Smith back. And Urban is 43-4 in games in August & September,
and beat SD State twice while at Utah. The Aztecs are 0-11 in their last
11 v. Big Ten teams, and Ohio State is 7-1 v. teams from the Mountain
West. But this is not about the S/U win, because I think Ohio State
wins this game. The issue is the spread, and frankly I am shocked
that the Vegas line has gone up from 24 to 28.
Coach Rocky Long took over from Brady Hoke and is doing a
great job. They are 7-3 on the road, 2-4 v. Top 25 teams, and 5-2 after a
loss with him on the sidelines. They will play much better than
they did last week, and Ohio State will win, but I don’t think it will be a
blowout. I cannot ignore the history of the Buckeyes’ of the Second
Home Game nor the success San Diego State has had. Take the Aztecs and
the points. The o/u is a push.
Schaef says: Ohio State 34, San Diego State 20.
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