“Got no feel, I got no rhythm. I just keep losing the
beat.” – Freddie Mercury.
Well, after two games I am 2-0 S/U, but a woeful 0-2
ATS. And this week we deal with (a) a rare non-conference road trip;
(b) the uncertain status of Braxton Miller; and (c) a completely new system and
coach at Cal. Should be easy.
Way back when we scheduled the home-and-home with Cal, they
were a top 10 team battling with USC for Pac-10 supremacy. Then they
nose-dived into the Pac-12 North basement and head coach Jeff Tedford was asked
to leave. But Tedford was on the sidelines last year when his (eventual)
3-9 Bears took OSU to the wire. (Highlights with awful music can be found here). Cal
outgained Ohio State 512-412 in that game. Thankfully, their FG kicker
was 0-3, including a key miss late in the 4th.
Now Cal has Daniel “Sonny” Dykes as Coach. Sonny is
the son of William “Spike” Dykes, who was the HC at Texas Tech for 14
years. Sonny came to Cal from Louisiana Tech, where he was 22-15 during
his 3 years there. What we can glean from Sonny’s record at La Tech
was that in 2012 they were No. 1 in Total Offense and No. 1 in Scoring Offense.
They were also No. 120 in Total Defense and No. 116 in Scoring
Defense. To illustrate, here’s the box score
of when Texas A&M played La. Tech).
Things appear to be taking similar form at Cal this
year. After two games, Cal is No. 1 in Passing offense and
No. 9 in total offense. They are averaging 33.5 points/game which places
them 55th. On defense, they are 109th against
the run, 104th against the pass, 116th in total defense,
and 104th in scoring defense. “Bear” in mind that their
game last week was against FCS Portland State. Cal was a 30.5 point
favorite and only won 37-30. In week one, Cal fell at home to
Northwestern, 44-30.
Cal starts Freshman Jared Goff (9) at QB and while he’s No.
1 in passing yards per game, he’s 60th in passing efficiency with a
rating of 137.2. He has 3 INTs to go with his 4 TDs. Neither
Miller nor Guiton are officially ranked in passing efficiency yet, but Miller
had a rating of 157.05 v. Buffalo, and Guiton had a 129.89 rating v. SDState,
so that gives you a comparison. From the highlights above, you
should remember RB Brendan Bigelow (5), who busted two long runs v. the
Buckeyes. He’s back and has 33 carries for 136 yards.
Freshman Khalfani Muhammad (29) has 16 rushes for 82 yards. Both are in
the range of 5’9” 180 so they are the small guys who are supposed to bust the
big plays, but that has not happened much yet. Since Goff throws
nearly 70% of the time, Cal has a host of players who have caught passes.
Sophomores Bryce Treggs (1) and Chris Harper (6) get the most attention.
There is no one on the Cal defense to note.
Ohio State is 6-1 v. Cal, but the last visit to Berkeley was
1972 (we won 35-18). The more important stat for me though is how the
Buckeyes do with non-conference away games. The answer? Pretty
good. Since 1982, Ohio State is 12-2-1 on the road v.
non-conference opponents who are not from the Pac-12. But, against that
conference, the Buckeyes are 2-5. Hmm. We have lost to USC and
Washington twice, and once to UCLA, while the two wins were against Arizona and
Washington.
The Buckeyes enter the game as the No. 4 team in the latest
AP poll, and Cal has not fared well in recent matchups against a top 10
team. They have dropped 7 straight and are 3-4 ATS in that time. In
home games, they are 0-4 S/U and 1-3 ATS. Since Cal is under new
management, I looked at Sonny Dykes record against top opponents when he was at
La. Tech. The Bulldogs were 0-3 S/U and 2-1 ATS v. top 25 teams in
his three years there.
The last cause for concern is that this is technically a
night game (because it starts after 5 p.m. ET, even though it will be 4 p.m. PT
at kickoff). The recent versions of the Buckeyes are not at their best on
the road under the lights with losses at Nebraska and Miami, and a narrow win
over Indiana last year.
So, we know Cal with throw a lot and we think that Cal will
score. We know that Cal will allow Ohio State to score. So, at
first blush, the O/U of 66 seems like it should fall. Ohio State
started out as a 15 point favorite and that has increased to 16 with the
information that Braxton Miller may be ready to play. I don’t know
if it will matter too much if Braxton plays or not, because the Cal defense is
just that bad. And if my memory is correct, Guiton has played some
QB on the road and he doesn’t seem like a guy who is going to be
fazed. I think our defense is much better than Portland State’s and
probably better than Northwestern’s. I think Jared Goff will not
see another secondary like ours. I think it will be a close game for 2.5
– 3 quarters with the Buckeyes eventually pulling away and covering.
Schaef says: Ohio State 47, Cal 30.
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