Illinois

Why bother?  I mean, not this blog/e-mail/chat.  I appreciate those of you who read this and actually look forward to it.  I even appreciate those of you who delete it as soon as it hits your inbox. 

No, I’m talking about Ohio State’s season in general.   I have seen a vision of the remainder of the season and it depresses me.  I see it as plain as the graying man-stache that lays just north of Mike Bonfiglio’s upper lip (inside joke - sorry).  The bleakness of the future is causing me to drink.  Well, not “causing” me if you want to be technical about it, but causing me in so much as adding to the reasons I drink.  I believe the Ohio State season currently checks in as Reason No. 43, but I digress.

Let’s discuss Illinois, briefly, shall we?  With a win on Saturday, The Ohio State University will tie the record for consecutive B1G victories with 20 – held by The Ohio State University.  The teams from 2005-2007 set the mark, only to have the streaked broken by . . . Illinois.  Go here to have the lime juice poured into your paper cut.  That was Illinois’ last win in the series.  Of course, each of their last 5 wins in the series have come in Columbus.   This was not one of them. (Go to the 14:50 mark to see someone lose a shoe.  P.S. You can hear my cheers in the background if you listening closely enough).   But this is not your Mike White Illini.   This is your Tim Beckman version, which is to say it is sort of like the Mike White version, except not as good.  Or, just not good.  At all.  10-22 overall and 2-18 in the conference says a lot.

“But,” you say, “they beat Minnesota last week!”   And Virginia Tech was once 2-0 and ranked No. 17.  Anomalies happen.   Look – Illinois has trailed after 3 quarters in every game this year.  EVERY GAME!  Let me tell you who was on Illinois’ schedule:  Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, Texas State, Washington, Purdue, and several other B1G teams – none of whom have been Ohio State or Michigan State.   Now, granted, in four of these games Illinois was able to come back.  At home, in the cozy, wind-blown confines of Memorial Stadium.  On the road?  Yeah . . .  not so much.

Illinois does have a “big play” offense in that they are 17^th in the nation in plays of 20 yards or greater (I cannot verify this stat anywhere so I will trust the University’s athletic department on this one).  They are No. 1 in the Big Ten in passing offense, and No. 8 in Net Punting.  Here are the other categories in which Illinois is highly ranked.     On defense, they resemble the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Let me put it this way – in the last two games in the series, Urban’s teams have scored 52 and 60 points.   I think it is safe to say that no matter how bad the weather is Saturday night, we will score between 52 and 60 on Illinois.

Unlike Penn State, Ohio State will be able to step on the throat of Illinois so that this does not became another game that elevates my blood pressure and ages me 10 years.   And for those of you scoring at home, I will be in attendance on Saturday.   The Buckeyes are 12-1 in the last 13 I have attended (the only blemish was a 17-20 loss v. Wisconsin in 2001, Tressel’s first year).   My 29-5 overall record at the Shoe includes 2 wins over Illinois.    Vegas has the Buckeyes as a 28-point favorite.  A little math here:  56 – 28 = 28.  Illinois won’t score 28, so take the Buckeyes and give the points.  Unless the over is 72, bet the over.

As for the rest of the season, if you want to know, read on.  If not, see you next week.  Maybe.

MSU’s defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, is the best college assistant coach in the country.  He has two weeks to game plan for us, and he has the Va. Tech and Penn State tapes.   I’m guessing that Vegas will make us a 6 point dog.   MSU will beat us by at least 10, maybe 14.   It will be easy money.

We will take care of Minnesota by 10 on the road, and Indiana by about 20 the next week.  Michigan will come in trying to win for Brady Hoke’s last game, but we should beat them by 14-17.  

We end the season 10-2 and we will be off to a New Year’s Day bowl in Florida – Citrus or Outback most likely.   We will get matched up against the 4^th or 5^th team from the SEC, which will probably be someone like Ole Miss.  Ole Miss’ defense is every bit as good as MSU’s, and better than Va. Tech’s or Penn State’s.   You get where I’m going with this.  So, 10-3 with no quality wins (except the annual pummeling of UM).  It will be a disappointing ending to a hollow year, I’m afraid.  But, I will still cheer like crazy for the “Eleven warriors brave and bold.”  Go Bucks!

Penn State

When I was much, much younger, without my parents’ knowledge, I sent my penny into the Columbia Record House and received 11 vinyl albums in return (and obligated my parents to buy 8 more at “regular club prices” over the next 3 years).   Along with Bachman-Turner-Overdrive, Elton John, and other rock/semi-rock acts, I also purchased “Serenade” by Neil Diamond.   I think I played “Longfellow Serenade” over 1,000 times.  However, I discovered that at school no one else was listening to Neil Diamond – or they would not admit to it.  So, I jumped off the bandwagon but continued to follow his career from afar.   And Neil cranked out the hits for the remainder of the 70s and 80s.   Then, after a dip in his popularity, he saw a resurgence in his popularity in the mid-90s and early 2000s.   Sports teams played “Sweet Caroline” during or after games.  He was on “New Year’s Rockin’ Eve” and “American Idol.”  But for the past few years, I have not seen him and not heard from him - until this morning when I learned that Sirius/XM channel 147 has become (temporarily) the Neil Diamond Channel.  I drove into the parking lot listening to the end of “September Morn” live in concert in 1992.

Penn State reminds me a lot of Neil Diamond.  About the time I was buying “Serenade” Woody Hayes and Joe Paterno met in back-to-back years in a home-and-home series.  Both times the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions were ranked in the AP top 7.  Both times it was a low scoring affair, and Woody emerged victorious twice.   Penn State was the epitome of uncool with their name-less jerseys and black high tops.  Since they weren’t in the B1G, I followed them from afar.  They stayed relevant during the 80s (with two mythical National Championships – including a Luke Skywalker blowing up the Death Star moment in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl – go to 10:35 mark here).  Then they were down, bounced back a little in the mid-2000s, but since then have been an afterthought.  Yes, they beat us three years ago during the Fickell era, but I treat that as an aberration.  I haven’t given Penn State much thought until this morning.

I am ready to say that the Ohio State offense and QB J.T. Barrett are very, very good . . . against bad defenses.   Next week against Illinois, we will again top 50 points and 500 yards.   Unfortunately, Penn State is not a bad defense.  In fact, quite the opposite.  The Nittany Lions are No. 1 in the nation in Rushing Defense, No. 6 in Total defense, and No. 6 in Scoring defense.  On the surface, those statistics seem fairly imposing.   But digging deeper we find that Penn State only allowed Rutgers to score 10 points.  We gave up 17.    They limited Michigan to 18 points, but UM is, well, um, bad, and for most of the 2^nd half had to play their 3^rd string QB, so . . . whatever. 

On the flip side, Penn State’s offense is bad.   Very bad.  As a colleague of mine noted, QB Christian Hackenberg has not just taken a step back this year, he’s taken 5 steps back.   Remember how bad Barrett was against VT in his 2^nd game?  Barrett had a QBR of 26.7.  That’s pretty darn low.  Hackenberg has had 3 QBR ratings equal to or worse so far this year!  Maybe the problem is their No. 118 rushing offense not giving him any support.  Maybe it’s their punting game, which is also 118^th in the nation, never giving him field position.   Or maybe it’s just that Hackenberg has regressed.  He has thrown for 1 TD in the past 4 games.   One.   From my view he seems well-positioned to carry on the tradition of “Pick Six University” (history here and here).

State College is no longer a scary place to play.   Ohio State has won 4 of the last 5 and beaten PSU when ranked and unranked.   The Buckeyes have won the last 3 by an average of 16 ppg.  The line is currently at -13.5 with the Over/under at 51.   The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS and 5-1 on the over, while PSU is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 with the under being the play in 4 of their last 5.   The higher ranked team has won 21 of the last 23 matchups, and the Nittany Lions are 3-11 v. ranked opponents since 2010.  At night, on the road, against a pretty good (ranked) defense, you think I should be conservative and take the points.   But you would be wrong.  Penn State may stop us more than other teams have, but Hackenberg’s inability to move their offense and their poor punting, will give us the field position edge.  Our offense will eventually score and score again.  PSU will have to throw and we will get other pick six.   I like the Buckeyes to cover and I like the over.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 40, Penn State 16

Rutgers

The much anticipated matchup of the No. 2 and 4 teams in offensive passing efficiency has finally arrived!

It may be hard to get fired up for the first ever meeting with the Scarlet Knights, but put away your preconceived notions about Rutgers because this team can play.  In Week One they went out to Pullman, WA and upset the Cougars in a 41-38 shootout.   They went to Navy and allowed 200 fewer yards rushing than the Buckeyes did a few weeks earlier.    They are 5-1 right now, although the schedule sets up to where they might not win another game the rest of the year.

Rutgers will go as Senior QB Gary Nova (10) goes.   He has 7 INTs this year (which makes me wonder how they can be No. 4 in passing efficiency – I guess it is because all of his passes are completed to someone).   He chucked 5 of the 7 in the Penn State game, so the stat appears worse than it really is.   He also threw for 404 yards against Michigan.  Rutgers lost starting RB Paul James to a torn ACL, and initially used Justin Goodwin (32) as a replacement but now rely upon  5-8, 175 lbs Desmon Peoples (6) to get the job done.   While Nova can distribute the ball, most of the time he targets Jr. WR Leonte Carroo (4).  Rutgers doesn’t do anything dramatic on offense, as most of their stats – save passing efficiency – are middle of the pack. 

In looking at their defense, the stats are the same with the exception of sacks and red zone defense.   Rutgers has 24 sacks on the year to rank 3^rd nationally.  Red zone defense is sort of a misleading stat because in tracks scores you have given up once a team crosses your 20.  For example, Ohio State is 106^th in RZD at .917, because the opponent has scored a TD or FG on 11 of 12 possessions.   But OSU has only allowed an opponent into the red zone 12x in 5 games (which obviously ignores all the big plays UC converted for scores).  Contrast that with Purdue, who is 30^th in RZD, but has allowed 33 trips into the red zone and 25 scores.   As for Rutgers, they rank 26^th at .750, allowing 18 scores (14 TDs) in 24 trips.  Perhaps they sack the opponent on 3^rd down and force a longer FG which is then missed.  I’m not sure, but something is going on there.

How about some completely irrelevant but “fun” stats, hmm?  The game is on ABC (or ESPN2).  Rutgers hasn’t won on ABC since 2006.  Coach Kyle Flood is 0-4 v. ranked teams, and Rutgers has not beaten a ranked team on the road since 2008 (per Rutgers A.D.) or 2009 (per Phil Steele).  Rutgers will play before their largest crowd ever on Saturday, breaking the 103,925 mark set when they played at Tennessee in 2002.  Ohio State has won 17 consecutive B1G regular season games.  The record is 20 set by – Ohio State (2005-2007).   If the Buckeyes win against Rutgers, Penn State, and Illinois, they can try and break the record at Michigan State.  Coach Meyer has not lost an October game since 2010.  Ohio State is 13-2 at home after a week off, including 11 consecutive wins.   Urban’s teams are 37-3 with more than one week to prepare.  It’s Homecoming and the Buckeyes are 67-19-5 in HC games.  If you will be traveling to a soccer game (like some of us) you can find the game on Sirius Channel 84.  Blah, blah, blah fishcakes you say.  What about Vegas?

The sharks have Ohio State as a 19.5 point favorite with the over/under at 59.  The line has not moved since it opened.  Rutgers is 4-2 ATS including 2-0 on the road and 2-0 as a road dog.  The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS, with the only blemish being the loss to Va Tech.  The over has been the play in most Buckeye games. The question is whether the Buckeyes, who have been firing on all cylinders since the Hokie massacre, can pick up where they left off.   The bigger unknown is which Gary Nova will show up for Rutgers?   The guy who can throw for 400+ yards, or the guy who likes the other color jerseys?  I was a woeful 4-7 last week ATS so take the next two lines with the proverbial grain of salt.   I think Ohio State does pick up where it left off and puts up big points and numbers.  But there is something about Rutgers that sticks to you like gum on a shoe.  I think they hang around in the background and a late score covers the spread.  

Schaef says:  Ohio State 45, Rutgers 27.

Maryland

It’s pretty intimidating playing Maryland when you realize the Terrapins have NEVER lost a B1G game in their history.  Ohio State will try and end that streak Saturday at noon.

Maryland is 4-1, with road wins over South Florida, Syracuse, and Indiana and a home win v. James Madison.  They lost at home to WVa on a last second FG.   But when I look at the stats I wonder ‘how has Maryland won any games?’  They do nothing exceptionally well.   Comparatively, the Buckeyes are significantly better in almost every key category.  I was able to make some sense of them though and 3 things stood out.

First, Maryland’s defense in 89^th in total yards, and 107^th in first downs allowed.  Not surprisingly, Maryland is 79^th in time of possession.  But, Maryland is 5^th in red zone defense.   They bend, but they don’t break. 

Second, Maryland is very good in the return game. 5^th in punt returns nationally (1^st in B1G) with 2 TDs already, and 20^th nationally in kickoff returns (again 1^st in B1G), although former Buckeye recruiting target, WR Stefon Diggs, is 11^th nationally on his own with 29.4 ypr.  So, if they do force a punt or concede a FG, they are going to give themselves good field position.

Lastly, they have a strong, accurate kicker.  Junior Brad Craddock is 10/10 so far this year and 6/6 from 40+.  If Maryland gets the ball across midfield, odds are they are going to come away with some points.

INTERMISSION:  Did you know that the campus with the most ESPN College Game Day visits is Ohio State?  The Buckeyes have hosted Fowler, Corso, and Herbstreit 13 times and won 10.  The last visit was November 13, 2010 when Penn State came to town.

Maryland opened a 10 point underdog, but the line has decreased to 8.5.  The over/under is 58.  Saturday’s forecast is 65 with only a 20% chance of rain.  Cincinnati scared me, and if the ref had called Eli Apple for defensive holding instead of offensive interference on them when it was 36-28, I wonder how that game would have ended.  Maryland has the experienced QB and the WRs to cause us major headaches and we could see several long pass plays.  Their defense is better than the Bearcats so we won’t have nearly as easy a time on offense.  Coach Randy Edsall is 0-8 v. Top 25 teams, so this could be a signature win for the program.  His team is 3-3 ATS as a home dog. 

I see a similar game as Cincinnati, though without the early turnover in our favor and without the Swiss cheese opposition defense.  I see a slugfest of big plays from Maryland v. a pounding from the OSU rushing game.  I’m really tempted to take Maryland and the points, but I think the Buckeyes will score late to cover.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 37, Maryland 27.