The much anticipated matchup of the No. 2 and 4 teams in
offensive passing efficiency has finally arrived!
It may be hard to get fired up for the first ever meeting with
the Scarlet Knights, but put away your preconceived notions about Rutgers
because this team can play. In Week One they went out to Pullman, WA and
upset the Cougars in a 41-38 shootout. They went to Navy and
allowed 200 fewer yards rushing than the Buckeyes did a few weeks
earlier. They are 5-1 right now, although the schedule sets
up to where they might not win another game the rest of the year.
Rutgers will go as Senior QB Gary Nova (10)
goes. He has 7 INTs this year (which makes me wonder how they can
be No. 4 in passing efficiency – I guess it is because all of his passes are
completed to someone). He chucked 5 of the 7 in the Penn State
game, so the stat appears worse than it really is. He also threw
for 404 yards against Michigan. Rutgers lost starting RB Paul James to a
torn ACL, and initially used Justin Goodwin (32) as a replacement but now rely
upon 5-8, 175 lbs Desmon Peoples (6) to get the job done.
While Nova can distribute the ball, most of the time he targets Jr. WR Leonte
Carroo (4). Rutgers doesn’t do anything dramatic on offense, as most of
their stats – save passing efficiency – are middle of the pack.
In looking at their defense, the stats are the same with the
exception of sacks and red zone defense. Rutgers has 24 sacks on
the year to rank 3rd nationally. Red zone defense is sort of a
misleading stat because in tracks scores you have given up once a team crosses
your 20. For example, Ohio State is 106th in RZD at .917,
because the opponent has scored a TD or FG on 11 of 12 possessions.
But OSU has only allowed an opponent into the red zone 12x in 5 games (which
obviously ignores all the big plays UC converted for scores). Contrast
that with Purdue, who is 30th in RZD, but has allowed 33 trips into
the red zone and 25 scores. As for Rutgers, they rank 26th
at .750, allowing 18 scores (14 TDs) in 24 trips. Perhaps they sack the
opponent on 3rd down and force a longer FG which is then
missed. I’m not sure, but something is going on there.
How about some completely irrelevant but “fun” stats,
hmm? The game is on ABC (or ESPN2). Rutgers hasn’t won on ABC since
2006. Coach Kyle Flood is 0-4 v. ranked teams, and Rutgers has not beaten
a ranked team on the road since 2008 (per Rutgers A.D.) or 2009 (per Phil Steele).
Rutgers will play before their largest crowd ever on Saturday, breaking the
103,925 mark set when they played at Tennessee in 2002. Ohio State has
won 17 consecutive B1G regular season games. The record is 20 set by –
Ohio State (2005-2007). If the Buckeyes win against Rutgers, Penn
State, and Illinois, they can try and break the record at Michigan State.
Coach Meyer has not lost an October game since 2010. Ohio State is 13-2
at home after a week off, including 11 consecutive wins. Urban’s teams
are 37-3 with more than one week to prepare. It’s Homecoming and the
Buckeyes are 67-19-5 in HC games. If you will be traveling to a soccer
game (like some of us) you can find the game on Sirius Channel 84. Blah,
blah, blah fishcakes you say. What about Vegas?
The sharks have Ohio State as a 19.5 point favorite with the
over/under at 59. The line has not moved since it opened. Rutgers
is 4-2 ATS including 2-0 on the road and 2-0 as a road dog. The Buckeyes
are 4-1 ATS, with the only blemish being the loss to Va Tech. The over
has been the play in most Buckeye games. The question is whether the Buckeyes,
who have been firing on all cylinders since the Hokie massacre, can pick up
where they left off. The bigger unknown is which Gary Nova will show
up for Rutgers? The guy who can throw for 400+ yards, or the guy
who likes the other color jerseys? I was a woeful 4-7 last week ATS so
take the next two lines with the proverbial grain of salt. I think
Ohio State does pick up where it left off and puts up big points and
numbers. But there is something about Rutgers that sticks to you like gum
on a shoe. I think they hang around in the background and a late score
covers the spread.
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