When I was much, much younger, without my parents’
knowledge, I sent my penny into the Columbia Record House and received 11 vinyl
albums in return (and obligated my parents to buy 8 more at “regular club
prices” over the next 3 years). Along with
Bachman-Turner-Overdrive, Elton John, and other rock/semi-rock acts, I also
purchased “Serenade”
by Neil Diamond. I think I played “Longfellow Serenade”
over 1,000 times. However, I discovered that at school no one else was
listening to Neil Diamond – or they would not admit to it. So, I jumped
off the bandwagon but continued to follow his career from afar. And
Neil cranked out the hits for the remainder of the 70s and 80s.
Then, after a dip in his popularity, he saw a resurgence in his popularity in the
mid-90s and early 2000s. Sports teams played “Sweet Caroline”
during or after games. He was on “New Year’s Rockin’ Eve” and “American
Idol.” But for the past few years, I have not seen him and not heard from
him - until this morning when I learned that Sirius/XM channel 147 has become
(temporarily) the Neil Diamond Channel. I drove into the parking lot
listening to the end of “September
Morn” live in concert in 1992.
Penn State reminds me a lot of Neil Diamond. About the
time I was buying “Serenade” Woody Hayes and Joe Paterno met in back-to-back
years in a home-and-home series. Both times the Buckeyes and Nittany
Lions were ranked in the AP top 7. Both times it was a low scoring affair,
and Woody emerged victorious twice. Penn State was the epitome of
uncool with their name-less jerseys and black high tops. Since they
weren’t in the B1G, I followed them from afar. They stayed relevant
during the 80s (with two mythical National Championships – including a Luke
Skywalker blowing up the Death Star moment in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl – go to
10:35 mark here).
Then they were down, bounced back a little in the mid-2000s, but since then
have been an afterthought. Yes, they beat us three years ago during the
Fickell era, but I treat that as an aberration. I haven’t given Penn
State much thought until this morning.
I am ready to say that the Ohio State offense and QB J.T.
Barrett are very, very good . . . against bad defenses. Next week
against Illinois, we will again top 50 points and 500 yards.
Unfortunately, Penn State is not a bad defense. In fact, quite the
opposite. The Nittany Lions are No. 1 in the nation in Rushing Defense,
No. 6 in Total defense, and No. 6 in Scoring defense. On the surface,
those statistics seem fairly imposing. But digging deeper we find
that Penn State only allowed Rutgers to score 10 points. We gave up
17. They limited Michigan to 18 points, but UM is, well, um,
bad, and for most of the 2nd half had to play their 3rd
string QB, so . . . whatever.
On the flip side, Penn State’s offense is bad.
Very bad. As a colleague of mine noted, QB Christian Hackenberg has not
just taken a step back this year, he’s taken 5 steps back. Remember
how bad Barrett was against VT in his 2nd game? Barrett had a
QBR of 26.7. That’s pretty darn low. Hackenberg has had 3 QBR
ratings equal to or worse so far this year! Maybe the problem is their
No. 118 rushing offense not giving him any support. Maybe it’s their
punting game, which is also 118th in the nation, never giving him
field position. Or maybe it’s just that Hackenberg has
regressed. He has thrown for 1 TD in the past 4 games.
One. From my view he seems well-positioned to carry on the
tradition of “Pick Six University” (history here and here).
State College is no longer a scary place to
play. Ohio State has won 4 of the last 5 and beaten PSU when ranked
and unranked. The Buckeyes have won the last 3 by an average of 16
ppg. The line is currently at -13.5 with the Over/under at
51. The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS and 5-1 on the over, while PSU is 1-3
ATS in their last 4 with the under being the play in 4 of their last 5.
The higher ranked team has won 21 of the last 23 matchups, and the
Nittany Lions are 3-11 v. ranked opponents since 2010. At night, on the road,
against a pretty good (ranked) defense, you think I should be conservative and
take the points. But you would be wrong. Penn State may stop
us more than other teams have, but Hackenberg’s inability to move their offense
and their poor punting, will give us the field position edge. Our offense
will eventually score and score again. PSU will have to throw and we will
get other pick six. I like the Buckeyes to cover and I like the
over.
Schaef says: Ohio State 40, Penn State 16
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