Idle week

Some sobering news:  Braxton Miller, Zeke Elliott (Jr.), Michael Thomas (Jr.), Vonn Bell (Jr.), Joey Bosa (Jr.), Joshua Perry, Tyvis Powell (Jr.), Darron Lee (R.So.), Adolphus Washington, Taylor Decker, and Jacoby Boren all have only 2 games left in the Shoe. 

Some bonus picks this week since the Buckeyes are idle:

B1G –

Rutgers at Wisconsin (-20.5):  Wisconsin won 37-0 last year in Piscataway.  This one is in Camp Randall.  Badger defense pretty good.  Give the points.  PREDICTION:  Wisconsin 34, Rutgers 7.

Nebraska (-10.5) at Purdue: No one has suffered more heartbreaking losses than the Huskers.  This won’t be one.  Decent Purdue team now turning into who we thought they were. PREDICTION:  Nebraska 38, Purdue 17.

Maryland (+10) at Iowa:  Hawkeyes undefeated but not dominating. Iowa only 3-9 ATS when favored by double digits. Maryland O will keep this tight. PREDICTION:  Iowa 30, Maryland 21.

Illinois (+5.5) at Penn State:  Illinois 1-2 in Happy Valley, but losses were by 3 and in OT.  This will be close – take the points.  PREDICTION:  Penn State 24, Illinois 21.

Michigan (-14) at Minnesota:  Gophers won last year and have won 3x in AA since 1978.  Haven’t won in Minneapolis during that time and haven’t held the Little Brown Jug in consecutive years since 62-63.  Michigan 6-0 in rematch after loss, with average margin 21.  Wolverines been waiting two weeks to hit something.  PREDICTION: Michigan 35, Minnesota 7.

Other –

West Virginia (+14) at TCU:  Last three times played games decided by 1, 3, and 1, with a single OT and a double OT.  2^nd consecutive road game for Mountaineers and they are 3-1 ATS in those.  Upset special alert.  PREDICTION:  TCU 40, West Va. 37.

Clemson at NC State (+10):  Tigers coming off big win at Miami and have Florida State next week.  This is classic trap game. NCST beat No. 7 Clemson in 2011 in Raleigh.  Upset special alert number 2.  PREDICTION:  Clemson 30, NC State 27.

Random thoughts on TWD

Almost 48 hours have passed, so anyone who doesn't know that Glen may have died in last Sunday night's episode of AMC's "The Walking Dead," I'm sorry to play the spoiler.  I don't know how you could have missed it as the internet is full of stories speculating whether Glen actually died or not.

For those of you not familiar with the setup (or as a simple refresher), Glen and another survivor, Nicholas, were trapped in an alley while a herd (500+) of zombies came at them.  They struggled to the top of a dumpster for safety.  Nicholas, who had been suffering from PTSD (or some other condition) concluded their situation was hopeless and used his last bullet in his gun on himself.  The result of the shot was that Nicholas fell into Glen, and the two of them fell off the dumpster into the hoarde.  Glen is seen lying on his back while the zombies rip into a body.  But was that body Glen's?

This is where most of the stories center themselves.  They go frame by frame to look at how the bodies fell, the positioning of the body the zombies are tearing up, etc.

While this is fascinating, it misses a very important point.  Glen has been around since episode number one.  He was the second post-apocalyptic human that Rick met, and Glen has been with us ever since.  If he is going to die on the show, the show is going to give him a proper sending off.  The scene described above occurs 3/4 of the way through the show and we never return to the alley.

Instead, this scene was more about Nicholas' redemption.  He was a punk who didn't know what he was doing - but thought he did - when we met him.  He even tried to kill Glen.  But Glen showed him compassion and helped turn Nicholas around into a valuable, contributing member of the group.  His journey was complete just before he and Glen were stuck in the alley.  Having been "saved" by Glen, Nicholas could take himself out knowing that at least he had done some good in the last weeks.

Glen is too important a figure to simply be a side note in Nicholas' death scene.  So, Glenn is likely alive.  However, I think TWD's ploy may backfire because the situation looks very grim as Glen is on his back, pinned down by his dead friend, while 500 zombies surround them.  TWD better serve up a believable story of how Glen could possibly survive this situation or it risks alienating viewers with what could turn out to be a cheap gimmick.

Rutgers

First of all there’s this (just because).

Ok, on to Rutgers.  I wish I could get excited for this game, but alas, no.   With J.T. Barrett back at the helm, I’m just too optimistic.  Plus, there’s no history with Rutgers other than last year’s game.   In case you don’t have time, here’s a summary of what J.T. and the offense did with its first few possessions:   TD, TD, TD, Punt, (defensive TD), TD, halftime, TD, TD, and TD.    It was 49-7 midway through the 3^rd quarter, backup QB Cardale Jones was playing, and after having watched the OSUMB’s awesome “Classic Rock” halftime performance, you had seen enough.

So, why would you expect anything different this year now that Urban has finally made the choice that so many of us thought should’ve been made on Labor Day?  Especially since with JT running the show, Ohio State covered the spread for the first time since Va. Tech?  And when factoring in that Rutgers is 1-9 v. ranked opponents and Meyer is 13-0 in B1G road games? 

Well, did you know that in 7 of those 13 B1G road wins, the Buckeyes have won by a TD or less (including Indiana this year)?  So, we have a tendency to keep teams in the game.  And Rutgers gave Michigan State all Sparty could handle in High Point Solutions Stadium (yes, that’s its name) only two weeks ago.  And Rutgers has a decent offense?   Okay – that’s all I got.

Look, with JT running the offense, the Buckeyes will be back scoring 50+ per game.   Zeke and JT will both rush for 100+ yards, and with all that running, eventually some pass plays are going to open up.  Rutgers is pretty decent against the rush but they will need to commit their safeties to try and stop both 15 and 16, and that will open up Miller, Marshall, and Thomas for big plays.  Rutgers will have some big plays against our defense because that’s what we do.   But unlike Schutt’s wrist, we won’t break.  And, if Rutgers is without its star WR Leonte Carroo, well then, it will be a slaughter worse than 2014.  Oh, and in case you were wondering, Sophomore QB Chris Laviano is more like PSU’s Christian Hackenberg than IU’s Zach Diamont or Maryland’s Perry Hills.

The Buckeyes are once again the 8:00 p.m. ET ABC national game with Chris, Kirk, and Heather.  Why?  Because this week’s slate of CFB games is pretty poor for tantalizing matchups.  Plus, Piscataway is a de facto suburb of NYC, so ABC wants to draw in that crowd, and Ohio State always draws viewers.  Basically, more money will flow here than from Iowa State-Baylor, West Va.- TCU, or Clemson-Miami.

Vegas has the Buckeyes a 21 point favorite and the line hasn’t moved much since it opened.  The sharks probably figured Urban was going with JT, but failed to factor in his effect over a full 60 minutes.  After 5 consecutive ATS losses, that’s understandable.  (There is no over/under posted yet which is odd).  If Carroo were healthy, then I might consider taking the points.  However, he’s not and I think his effectiveness will be limited.  Laviano won’t kill us with his feet, and our Nationally ranked No. 4 pass efficiency D should be solid.  I think the offense continues its roll from the end of last week and posts a big number.   Take the Buckeyes and give the points (and go the over if 60 or less):

Schaef says:  Ohio State 52, Rutgers 21. 

Way Too Early B1G East Tiebreaker

Ohio State fans are a funny lot.   One moment they are relishing Sparty's improbable come from behind victory over That Team Up North.   The next moment, they are concerned that TTUN may still win out, including a win over the Buckeyes.  So, what happens if Michigan State beats Michigan (DONE), Ohio State beats Michigan State, and Michigan somehow beats Ohio State?

To make this work, we have to make certain assumptions.   First, we need to have all three end in a three-way tie at 7-1 in conference, with their only losses to each other.  That means Ohio State wins every game but The Big Game, Sparty wins every game except its trip to Columbus, and Michigan wins out.  The Big Ten tiebreaking system has seven steps for a three-way tie.  If at any point, one team gets eliminated in the comparison, then you resort to head-to-head to determine the winner.  So, if Ohio State beats Michigan State, it wants the tiebreaking system to eliminate Michigan as soon as possible.

Step No. 1 - The records in games against each other.  This will not resolve the matter because they will all be 1-1 against each other.

Step No. 2 - Records within the division.  Still nothing.  Each team will have one loss, all coming against an Eastern Division opponent.   Moving on to . . .

Step No. 3 - Records v. teams finishing next in standings, in order (team 4, then 5, then 6 and finally 7).   Well, under my scenario, OSU, MSU, and UM will all be unbeaten v. these four teams.  So, still no resolution.

Step No. 4 - Records versus all common conference opponents.  In other words, did y'all play the same teams from the West?  Sadly, no.  Michigan drew N'western and Minnesota.  Ohio State plays Minnesota too (and Illinois), but MSU has Purdue and Nebraska.  So this step is inapplicable.

Step No. 5 - Highest team ranked in the CFP poll at the end of the B1G season, UNLESS the teams are one spot away from each other in which case the head-to-head meeting will take precedent.

Finally, we are getting somewhere, but we are going to have to make some more assumptions.  First, let's assume that when the CFP comes out, Ohio State will be in the top 4 (likely) and after beating an undefeated MSU, the Buckeyes will be a solid 1 or 2.   Let's also assume that at the time of that matchup, MSU is No. 6 in the poll, because: (a) Baylor and TCU don't play each other until Nov. 27 so both should be in the top 4; (b) if Clemson beats FSU at home they will still be unbeaten; and, (c)  the winner of LSU-Bama has got to be in the top 5.  If Utah is still unbeaten, the Sparty is likely No. 7 or 8.  When the Buckeyes beat the Spartans, Michigan State probably drops to 10 or 12 in the poll, which is probably right where Michigan will be after winning 4 straight.  So, going into the Ohio State - Michigan game, Ohio State will be No. 2, Michigan State No. 10, and Michigan No. 11.

While the Wolverines' victory over Ohio State would be devastating, the Buckeyes probably drop only to No. 6 because (a) it's a road loss to a highly ranked opponent, and (b) other top teams will be losing that weekend.  Either TCU or Baylor has to lose. It's also rivalry week and someone else may fall.  Even if they don't, 6 looks like the logical number.  But the Committee cannot put a one loss MSU above OSU considering the Buckeyes just beat them the week before.  And, it would be difficult for the committee to put a 2-loss Wolverine team above MSU.  So, Ohio State will probably be No. 5 or 6, MSU will be 8 or 9, and Michigan will be 9 or 10.

Under this scenario, Ohio State wins the tiebreaker and would represent the East in the B1G Championship against Iowa (likely), who may be undefeated themselves and ranked anywhere from No. 5 - 10.  If Ohio State beats a highly ranked Iowa in Indianapolis, it would be difficult for the Committee to keep the defending champs out of the 2nd CFP.

But wait!  What if Ohio State is No. 6, Michigan is No. 7, and Michigan State is No. 8 in the CFP poll after the B1G regular season?

Then you go to Step No. 6 - Best overall win percentage.   Ohio State and Michigan State will both be 11-1, while Michigan will be 10-2.   Michigan will be eliminated from consideration.  Head-to-head resolves the difference now and Ohio State's win over Sparty on Nov. 21 sends them to the Championship.

Penn State

“I see a red ‘Shoe and I want it painted black.”  I got to admit that I am excited at the prospects of seeing this on TV in a few days.  But while some are excited about the new black uniforms and the “Black Out” for this week, unfortunately there are many whose mood about the Buckeyes can best be described as “black.”  For those of you that still have angst about the manner in which our squad has achieved their 6-0 record, click here.

Yahoo Sports’ Pat Forde can say we are the worst first-half team of any season-long No. 1 team ever.   Jeff Sagarin can rate the Buckeyes as the 13^th best team.  Facebook can even have an anti-Ohio State page.   

None of that matters.  Survive and advance.  USC? Oregon?  Arizona State? Georgia? Auburn?  Thanks for playing.   You guys didn’t take care of business and now with six games left, the CFP isn’t even a topic of discussion.   Oh, and our schedule?  Sorry it’s backloaded.  Sorry Virginia Tech isn’t what they were when we scheduled them years ago.  Sorry Penn State could not beat Temple in Week One so that they would be undefeated, or that the random B1G draw put Northwestern on Michigan’s schedule and Illinois on ours.   If things stay close to what they are now, we will play a ranked team the last 5 games (MSU, UM, B1G championship, playoff semi, and playoff final).  You win those 5, haters can just shut up.

“But, John, we don’t look good.”  Yes, and No.   But things are starting to gel on offense now.  J.T. Barrett running the show in the red zone is a good thing.  I think he will eventually be the QB on a full-time basis.  But even if he isn’t, the offense is getting back on track.   No one was worried about our defense until the last two weeks.  But IU’ burned us with misdirection and a running QB.  So did Maryland.   PSU QB Christian Hackenberg, MSU QB Connor Cook, and UM QB Jake Ruddock are redwoods compared to what we’ve been dealing with.  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.   One game at a time.  Let the rest sort itself out.

In Ohio State-Penn State matchups, the higher ranked team has won 22 of the last 24 meetings.  Penn State beat us in 2008 (Terrelle Pryor’s freshman year) and 2011 (Luke Fickell as HC), but their trips to Columbus have usually ended in disaster.  24-6;  38-7;  28-9; 45-6;  13-7;  21-10;  28-6;  38-14;  and 63-14.  Do you notice a trend in the PSU scoring?   No more than 14 points in 9 games.  Even the two years they won they scored 13 and 20.  (Note – both years PSU was higher ranked than us too).  This year, the Nittany Lions bring in an offense that is 103^rd in the nation.  86^th in rushing, 99^th in passing, 92^nd in scoring, and 112^th in sacks allowed.   Hackenberg cannot and will not run to cause us problems.  Our D-Line will be pinning their ears back and going after him, while our LBs will be focusing on stopping the RBs.  Yes, their D has impressive statistics, but I think our offense is finally figuring stuff out.  Besides, in years past PSU has always had a good defense and yet we continually put 20, 30, 40 points on them.

But what does Vegas say?   Well, here’s where I find the most telling sign.  The oddsmakers listed the Buckeyes as 21 point favorites, but the public has bet that line down to 17.  So far this season the line has been going the other way and OSU ends up not covering.  The Bucks have 5 consecutive losses ATS.  In the first half of the year, everyone expected the Buckeyes to blow out all opponents, but the team “underperformed.”  Expectations are now reduced just when the Buckeyes are turning a corner.  If you imagine a graph, picture the lines for the expectation and performance reversing course.

Coach Franklin is doing well at State College, but he has a very poor record as a “big game” coach.  0-6 v. Top 10 and 1-10 v. Top 25.   Penn State’s program is 8-16 ATS as an away dog since 2002.   I think everyone is expecting a battle Saturday night.  I think this will be more like a Rhonda Rousey fight and come Sunday you are going to be singing this.  Or, maybe this.  Anyway, give the 17 and bet the over (48.5).  

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Penn State 14.  

Maryland

So, the 2015 offense is averaging the same yards per play as the 2014 offense, but the 2015 version has 5 more turnovers.   And the 2015 offense is only converting 37.5% of their red zone possessions into TDs (6-16), compared to 2014’s 75% (21-28).   So, I asked an expert his thoughts. 

Seriously, does anyone have a clue what is going to happen this weekend?   I know this – a few weeks ago we started discussing how this year’s Buckeyes were reminding us of last year’s Seminoles.   Then the national media finally caught up with our astute group and made the same comparisons.

Florida State was 3-11 ATS last year.  1-6 as a home favorite.  One difference between 2014 FSU and 2015 OSU is in the first 5 games FSU played much better teams than OSU.  The Seminoles were favored by MORE than 20 only twice, while the Buckeyes have been favored by LESS than 20 only once (-13.5 at Va. Tech).  FSU wasn’t supposed to be destroying teams and yet they still got dogged by the media for only winning by 6, 6, and 15, when they were favored by 18, 10, and 18.  As the season wore on, FSU’s lines decreased even more (5 of last 7 games the Seminoles were favored by 10 or less) yet they could only cover twice, so the problem wasn’t really overinflated lines created by Vegas.

Part of the Buckeyes’ problem is the Vegas lines.  We were supposed to blow out Hawaii, No. Illinois, Western Mich., and Indiana.   Average line:  OSU by 33.  Average margin of victory: OSU by 19.  Now, 19 point victories aren’t bad at all and certainly better than what FSU was doing last year.  However, you cannot cover 33 point lines when your offense is scoring 32 points per game.   At this point last season, our offense was cranking out point totals such as 66, 50, 52, and 56 in weeks 3-6.   Which leads us back to the question we’ve been asking ourselves for three weeks:  will this weekend be the weekend when the offense starts clicking on all cylinders?

Well, Maryland certainly does not appear to be a formidable opponent.   They gave up 48 at home to Bowling Green.  They lost 6-45 at West Virginia in their only road game so far.  They were shut out by Xichigan last week.   Senior QB Caleb Rowe (7) has thrown 7 picks in the last 2 weeks, and 12 picks in 4 games.  If he plays, that’s a sad sign for the Terrapins.   Maryland has great special teams players in K Brad Craddock (15) and returner William Likely, Jr. (4).  It’s likely that between Likely and Craddock, Maryland will score on us.  But not much.

Vegas has us as a 33.5 point favorite, with an over/under at 54.5.   As I said before, I’m no math major but in order for us to cover and keep the overall point total at 54, that means Vegas thinks Maryland won’t score much either.  I get the feeling that whichever way I decide to go, the opposite will happen.  I think the defense will keep Maryland to 10 points.  And I read how the offense is on the verge of breaking out.  This would certainly be the week.   Call me old-fashioned, but I cannot predict it until I see.  I think you take the Terps and the points.  Stay away from the o/u.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 35, Maryland 10

Indiana

I wonder if the Buckeye players feel this way.

4-0.  No. 1 in the nation.  And yet I polled some Ohio State fans on how they feel about the season so far.  Here are the results.

But nothing gets the blood boiling and the nerve ends tingling like . . . Indiana?  The Hoosiers are 12-70-5 against the Buckeyes.  That’s a .167 winning percentage.  The Buckeyes have won 20 straight with IU’s last win being 1988.  Sure, there have been some closer games, like last year’s 42-27 or 2012’s 52-49.   But a closer look reveals that last year we turned a 14-20 deficit into a 42-20 lead in about a quarter.  The game in Bloomington we actually led 52-34 with two minutes left.  So, even the close games aren’t that close.

Could this Indiana be different?  They are a top the B1G in Total Offense and Scoring Offense.  And they are on a 5-game win streak.  This is the first time since 1942 that both Ohio State and Indiana have been undefeated entering the game.

But, Indiana is also dead last in Total Defense and 12^th in the conference in Scoring Defense.  You can really slice through them via the air, so it is imperative that Cardale have a decent game.  BTW, the Hoosiers are 0-15 against No. 1 teams including 0-5 v. the Bucks when we are top ranked.

One important fact to note from the IU Athletic office:  • IU’s staff and players will “go pink” in support of breast cancer awareness. 

Vegas has us as a 21 point favorite with the over/under at 67.  The Buckeyes are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 on the over, usually not coming close.  Indiana is the opposite 3-1 ATS and 4-0 on the over.  A lovely day in the mid-50s with occasional rain is in the forecast.  IU was 2-10 ATS off a S/U win, but after 3 straight they are now 5-10.  Coach Kevin Wilson is 6-6 ATS as a home dog, which doesn’t help me at all.  The only stat that really jumps out at me is that IU has covered in the last 4 meetings with the Buckeyes.   That stat, along with IU being 3-0 after a S/U, and 3-1 ATS this year, and the Buckeyes poor performances seems to be pointing toward taking the Hoosiers and the points.

Well, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QHHGHve_N0

I think getting out of Columbus gets the Buckeyes more focused and they will be sharper.  I think our defense controls IU and they will allow us to make big plays.  Weather won’t be a big deal.   Zeke will.  Give the points, take the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 44, Indiana 17.

Year to date:  3-1 ATS; 1-3 on over/under