Ohio State fans are a funny lot. One moment they are relishing Sparty's improbable come from behind victory over That Team Up North. The next moment, they are concerned that TTUN may still win out, including a win over the Buckeyes. So, what happens if Michigan State beats Michigan (DONE), Ohio State beats Michigan State, and Michigan somehow beats Ohio State?
To make this work, we have to make certain assumptions. First, we need to have all three end in a three-way tie at 7-1 in conference, with their only losses to each other. That means Ohio State wins every game but The Big Game, Sparty wins every game except its trip to Columbus, and Michigan wins out. The Big Ten tiebreaking system has seven steps for a three-way tie. If at any point, one team gets eliminated in the comparison, then you resort to head-to-head to determine the winner. So, if Ohio State beats Michigan State, it wants the tiebreaking system to eliminate Michigan as soon as possible.
Step No. 1 - The records in games against each other. This will not resolve the matter because they will all be 1-1 against each other.
Step No. 2 - Records within the division. Still nothing. Each team will have one loss, all coming against an Eastern Division opponent. Moving on to . . .
Step No. 3 - Records v. teams finishing next in standings, in order (team 4, then 5, then 6 and finally 7). Well, under my scenario, OSU, MSU, and UM will all be unbeaten v. these four teams. So, still no resolution.
Step No. 4 - Records versus all common conference opponents. In other words, did y'all play the same teams from the West? Sadly, no. Michigan drew N'western and Minnesota. Ohio State plays Minnesota too (and Illinois), but MSU has Purdue and Nebraska. So this step is inapplicable.
Step No. 5 - Highest team ranked in the CFP poll at the end of the B1G season, UNLESS the teams are one spot away from each other in which case the head-to-head meeting will take precedent.
Finally, we are getting somewhere, but we are going to have to make some more assumptions. First, let's assume that when the CFP comes out, Ohio State will be in the top 4 (likely) and after beating an undefeated MSU, the Buckeyes will be a solid 1 or 2. Let's also assume that at the time of that matchup, MSU is No. 6 in the poll, because: (a) Baylor and TCU don't play each other until Nov. 27 so both should be in the top 4; (b) if Clemson beats FSU at home they will still be unbeaten; and, (c) the winner of LSU-Bama has got to be in the top 5. If Utah is still unbeaten, the Sparty is likely No. 7 or 8. When the Buckeyes beat the Spartans, Michigan State probably drops to 10 or 12 in the poll, which is probably right where Michigan will be after winning 4 straight. So, going into the Ohio State - Michigan game, Ohio State will be No. 2, Michigan State No. 10, and Michigan No. 11.
While the Wolverines' victory over Ohio State would be devastating, the Buckeyes probably drop only to No. 6 because (a) it's a road loss to a highly ranked opponent, and (b) other top teams will be losing that weekend. Either TCU or Baylor has to lose. It's also rivalry week and someone else may fall. Even if they don't, 6 looks like the logical number. But the Committee cannot put a one loss MSU above OSU considering the Buckeyes just beat them the week before. And, it would be difficult for the committee to put a 2-loss Wolverine team above MSU. So, Ohio State will probably be No. 5 or 6, MSU will be 8 or 9, and Michigan will be 9 or 10.
Under this scenario, Ohio State wins the tiebreaker and would represent the East in the B1G Championship against Iowa (likely), who may be undefeated themselves and ranked anywhere from No. 5 - 10. If Ohio State beats a highly ranked Iowa in Indianapolis, it would be difficult for the Committee to keep the defending champs out of the 2nd CFP.
But wait! What if Ohio State is No. 6, Michigan is No. 7, and Michigan State is No. 8 in the CFP poll after the B1G regular season?
Then you go to Step No. 6 - Best overall win percentage. Ohio State and Michigan State will both be 11-1, while Michigan will be 10-2. Michigan will be eliminated from consideration. Head-to-head resolves the difference now and Ohio State's win over Sparty on Nov. 21 sends them to the Championship.
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