Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Penn State

“I see a red ‘Shoe and I want it painted black.”  I got to admit that I am excited at the prospects of seeing this on TV in a few days.  But while some are excited about the new black uniforms and the “Black Out” for this week, unfortunately there are many whose mood about the Buckeyes can best be described as “black.”  For those of you that still have angst about the manner in which our squad has achieved their 6-0 record, click here.

Yahoo Sports’ Pat Forde can say we are the worst first-half team of any season-long No. 1 team ever.   Jeff Sagarin can rate the Buckeyes as the 13th best team.  Facebook can even have an anti-Ohio State page.   

None of that matters.  Survive and advance.  USC? Oregon?  Arizona State? Georgia? Auburn?  Thanks for playing.   You guys didn’t take care of business and now with six games left, the CFP isn’t even a topic of discussion.   Oh, and our schedule?  Sorry it’s backloaded.  Sorry Virginia Tech isn’t what they were when we scheduled them years ago.  Sorry Penn State could not beat Temple in Week One so that they would be undefeated, or that the random B1G draw put Northwestern on Michigan’s schedule and Illinois on ours.   If things stay close to what they are now, we will play a ranked team the last 5 games (MSU, UM, B1G championship, playoff semi, and playoff final).  You win those 5, haters can just shut up.

“But, John, we don’t look good.”  Yes, and No.   But things are starting to gel on offense now.  J.T. Barrett running the show in the red zone is a good thing.  I think he will eventually be the QB on a full-time basis.  But even if he isn’t, the offense is getting back on track.   No one was worried about our defense until the last two weeks.  But IU’ burned us with misdirection and a running QB.  So did Maryland.   PSU QB Christian Hackenberg, MSU QB Connor Cook, and UM QB Jake Ruddock are redwoods compared to what we’ve been dealing with.  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.   One game at a time.  Let the rest sort itself out.

In Ohio State-Penn State matchups, the higher ranked team has won 22 of the last 24 meetings.  Penn State beat us in 2008 (Terrelle Pryor’s freshman year) and 2011 (Luke Fickell as HC), but their trips to Columbus have usually ended in disaster.  24-6;  38-7;  28-9; 45-6;  13-7;  21-10;  28-6;  38-14;  and 63-14.  Do you notice a trend in the PSU scoring?   No more than 14 points in 9 games.  Even the two years they won they scored 13 and 20.  (Note – both years PSU was higher ranked than us too).  This year, the Nittany Lions bring in an offense that is 103rd in the nation.  86th in rushing, 99th in passing, 92nd in scoring, and 112th in sacks allowed.   Hackenberg cannot and will not run to cause us problems.  Our D-Line will be pinning their ears back and going after him, while our LBs will be focusing on stopping the RBs.  Yes, their D has impressive statistics, but I think our offense is finally figuring stuff out.  Besides, in years past PSU has always had a good defense and yet we continually put 20, 30, 40 points on them.

But what does Vegas say?   Well, here’s where I find the most telling sign.  The oddsmakers listed the Buckeyes as 21 point favorites, but the public has bet that line down to 17.  So far this season the line has been going the other way and OSU ends up not covering.  The Bucks have 5 consecutive losses ATS.  In the first half of the year, everyone expected the Buckeyes to blow out all opponents, but the team “underperformed.”  Expectations are now reduced just when the Buckeyes are turning a corner.  If you imagine a graph, picture the lines for the expectation and performance reversing course.

Coach Franklin is doing well at State College, but he has a very poor record as a “big game” coach.  0-6 v. Top 10 and 1-10 v. Top 25.   Penn State’s program is 8-16 ATS as an away dog since 2002.   I think everyone is expecting a battle Saturday night.  I think this will be more like a Rhonda Rousey fight and come Sunday you are going to be singing this.  Or, maybe this.  Anyway, give the 17 and bet the over (48.5).  

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Penn State 14.  

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