So, the 2015 offense is averaging the same yards per play as
the 2014 offense, but the 2015 version has 5 more turnovers. And
the 2015 offense is only converting 37.5% of their red zone possessions into
TDs (6-16), compared to 2014’s 75% (21-28). So, I asked an expert his thoughts.
Seriously, does anyone have a clue what is going to happen
this weekend? I know this – a few weeks ago we started discussing
how this year’s Buckeyes were reminding us of last year’s
Seminoles. Then the
national media finally caught up with our astute group and made the same
comparisons.
Florida State was 3-11 ATS last year. 1-6 as a home
favorite. One difference between 2014 FSU and 2015 OSU is in the first 5
games FSU played much better teams than OSU. The Seminoles were favored
by MORE than 20 only twice, while the Buckeyes have been favored by LESS than
20 only once (-13.5 at Va. Tech). FSU wasn’t supposed to be destroying
teams and yet they still got dogged by the media for only winning by 6, 6, and
15, when they were favored by 18, 10, and 18. As the season wore on,
FSU’s lines decreased even more (5 of last 7 games the Seminoles were favored
by 10 or less) yet they could only cover twice, so the problem wasn’t really
overinflated lines created by Vegas.
Part of the Buckeyes’ problem is the Vegas lines. We
were supposed to blow out Hawaii, No. Illinois, Western Mich., and
Indiana. Average line: OSU by 33. Average margin of
victory: OSU by 19. Now, 19 point victories aren’t bad at all and
certainly better than what FSU was doing last year. However, you cannot
cover 33 point lines when your offense is scoring 32 points per game.
At this point last season, our offense was cranking out point
totals such as 66, 50, 52, and 56 in weeks 3-6. Which leads us back
to the question we’ve been asking ourselves for three weeks: will this
weekend be the weekend when the offense starts clicking on all cylinders?
Well, Maryland certainly does not appear to be a formidable
opponent. They gave up 48 at home to Bowling Green. They lost
6-45 at West Virginia in their only road game so far. They were shut out
by Xichigan last week. Senior QB Caleb Rowe (7) has thrown 7 picks
in the last 2 weeks, and 12 picks in 4 games. If he plays, that’s a sad
sign for the Terrapins. Maryland has great special teams players in
K Brad Craddock (15) and returner William Likely, Jr. (4). It’s likely
that between Likely and Craddock, Maryland will score on us. But not
much.
Vegas has us as a 33.5 point favorite, with an over/under at
54.5. As I said before, I’m no math major but in order for us to
cover and keep the overall point total at 54, that means Vegas thinks Maryland
won’t score much either. I get the feeling that whichever way I decide to
go, the opposite will happen. I think the defense will keep Maryland to
10 points. And I
read how the offense is on the verge of breaking out. This would
certainly be the week. Call me old-fashioned, but I cannot predict
it until I see. I think you take the Terps and the points. Stay
away from the o/u.
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