Illinois

Ohio State making the CFP?

There's still a chance? Are you serious? Find video clips by quote. GetYarn.io now.

Here's the quick and dirty (which will probably really turn out to be slow and painful):

Alabama wins out.  In doing so, they beat Auburn (giving them 3 losses) and Georgia (giving them 2).  Auburn and Georgia are eliminated.

Miami wins out.  In doing so, they beat Clemson (giving them 2 losses).   Now, while Clemson may have better wins and not terribly egregious losses, the committee has revamped the rules to place "special emphasis" on conference championships.  Clemson won't have one.  Bye-bye.

Oklahoma wins out.  It doesn't eliminate anyone but takes away the committee having to decide between a 2 loss Sooner team and us.  We lose any such comparison.

That leaves one spot open.  If Ohio State beats Illinois, beats Michigan, and beats Wisconsin, we will be 11-2 and a conference champion and Wisconsin will be, at best, 12-1 and a non-champion with a head-to-head loss to Ohio State. Unlike last year, with the new guidelines, the 2-loss conference champ gets the advantage.

That leaves only Notre Dame in our way and without a conference championship, ND finishes 10-2, with the committee's last true impression of them as getting skunked by Miami.  ND will be out.

There is an argument for Southern Cal who could win the Pac 12 and finish 11-2, but the fact that the committee had Ohio State leap over USC this week by 2 spots leads me to believe that OSU wins the comparison.  Wins over Michigan and Wisconsin will be more impressive than wins over UCLA and Washington going forward.

On to Illinois - they are . . . not so good.  If this was the Premier League, Illinois would already be relegated to the MAC.  Matthew and I have been to each of the last 2 Illinois visits to the Shoe (2012 - Ohio State 52-22 and 2014 - Ohio State 55-14).  In between those, Illinois lost at home to the Buckeyes 60-35, and in 2015, we beat them 28-3.   Average margin of victory:  30.  Average points scored by OSU: 49. Those Illini teams were arguably better than this year's version.

The Vegas line has crawled up to 41 with an over/under of 55.  I'm not a math major but a score of 48-7 is needed just to create a push on both lines.  That's a pretty tall order no matter how poorly the opposition is. 

it's also Senior Day at the Shoe.  It's tough to look at Senior Day performances when the opponent is Michigan, so I looked at Senior Day performances for our last home game before we go to Ann Arbor.  

2015 - lost to Michigan State (+14)   14-17

2013 - def Indiana (+34.5)                  42-14

2011 - lost to Penn State (+6.5)         14-20

2009 - def Iowa (+ 15.5)                    27-24 (ot)

2007 - lost to Illinois (-15)                  21-28

2005 - def Northwestern (+ 19.5)      48-7

2003 - def Purdue (+3)                       16-13 (ot)

2001 - lost to Illinois (- 1.5)                22-34

1999 - lost to Illinois                          20-46

So that is 4-5 S/U and a nice 1-7-1 ATS.  

I would be emotional playing my last game in Ohio Stadium.  (Note - I was emotional my senior year watching my last game as a student - coincidentally a 7-12 loss to unranked Wisconsin when Ohio State was No. 3.  Thanks, Earle).  Maybe that is what the players feel.  Maybe it's the fact that Michigan is coming up on the schedule.  I don't know what it is but we rarely play well the week prior.   So, while I expect Ohio State to win big, the history books (as well as the inconsistent performance of this year's team) tells me otherwise.  So, if you are wagering, I think you need to take Illinois and the points. Actually, I think I would just stay away from this game altogether.   Don't bet the spread, don't bet the over/under.  Just save your money this week.  But for purposes of pure fun, ignoring history and all else . . . 

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 58, Illinois 14.

P.S.  I will be in Arizona next week so I do not know if I will have a Michigan preview or not.  Apologies if I do not.

Michigan State

I'm trying, you know, but as a friend has pointed out.

Unless there is complete carnage during the remaining weeks (e.g. Georgia loses to Auburn and GT, Bama loses to Miss State and Auburn, Auburn loses rematch with Georgia, ND loses to Miami or Stanford, Miami loses to ND or Clemson, Clemson loses to So Carolina, Wisconsin loses to Iowa and Ohio State, Oklahoma loses to TCU 2x, TCU loses to somebody, USC loses to UCLA, Washington loses to Wash State or USC, just as an example) the CFP is out of reach and all that is left to play for is (1) Beating Michigan, and (2) the B1G championship.  Color me spoiled but I am finding it difficult to get excited about that. . . right now.

The weather does not help. Those of you in Ohio will dip below freezing tonight and stay there for the next 36+ hours.   Three days of clouds and rain in NC make one dreary.  Thank goodness I don't have to play, only watch.

So, Sparty.  Home team has not won in series since 2007.  MSU beats us every odd year since (2009, 2011, and 2015 in Shoe, along with 2013 in B1G Championship) so, not looking so good, so far.  Just FYI, Dantonio is also 20-7 in his last 27 November games.

MSU is 2-1 S/U away this year and 1-2 ATS.  Vegas has the Buckeyes a 15.5 point favorite with 54.5 as the O/U.  Both defenses are comparable, but Ohio State has the better offense.  The question is where will Ohio State's mindset be?  The debacle in Iowa City can either be devastating or a rallying point.  I don't know if it was a blip or the sign of something bigger going on in the program.  

I believe the Buckeyes have the talent to exploit any weakness in Michigan State's defense.  I also believe our defense, if it so chooses, can make the Spartans into an offensive powerhouse.  I think Ohio State will put up points.  I also believe our kickoff coverage will stink and we will commit at least 9 penalties for 90 yards and keep at least 3 MSU drives alive.   Given Sparty's track record in the Shoe, I think the smart play is to take MSU and the 15.5.  I also think you should bet the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 35, Michigan State 28

Iowa

My question:

Got to admit that I'm still feeling the hangover from last week's win. As you may recall, we were at Epcot so Matthew and I were constantly checking our phones to get updates. Using the Fox Sports App we saw the Denzel Ward interception overturned in the 3rd quarter giving PSU a TD and I knew the fix was in.  (The Fox guys were correct - the ref on the field could have called it either way, but there was insufficient evidence to reverse whatever call he made).  Then our kickoff team stopped screwing up and JT silenced 99% of his remaining doubters. What a win.  What. A. Win.

(Side note - I had predicted 42-27, and at one point PSU led 35-27 and had first and goal at our 6.  I was sure I was going to be correct but in reverse.  So glad it didn't turn out that way).

Fortunately for us, Urban Meyer does not tolerate hangovers.  Since he took over in 2012, the Buckeyes have suffered only one letdown (at PSU last year) the week after a "big game."  Moreover, we usually cover the spread too.  (The following are my selections of big games during the season and the result the following week):

Big Game                                            Next Week:  

                                                                S/U & ATS

2012 - at Michigan State  W 17-16       W          W

            at Penn State W 35-23              W          W

            at Wisconsin W 21-14 (OT)        W          W

2013- Wisconsin  W 31-24                    W          W

           at N'western W 40-30                W           L

2014 - at Michigan State W 49-37         W          L

2016 - at Oklahoma  W 45-24               W          W

           at Wisconsin W 30-23 (OT)         L            L

           Nebraska W  62-3                       W          W

Iowa was supposed to be decent this year.  This game was supposed to be an 8:00 p.m. start until (a) Iowa started to suck and (b) Urban complained about too many 8:00 p.m. road starts.  So, the game is at 3:30.   And, it is the last B1G location for Urban to visit.   He has never taken the Buckeyes to Iowa City.  In case you are wondering, Meyer is 12-0 S/U and 8-4 ATS in first visits to B1G stadiums.  

Iowa is 5-3 this year and one wonders how they have done it.   Here are some statistics:  100th in rushing offense, 78th in passing offense, 104th in total offense, and 88th in scoring offense.   So it's gotta be their defense right?   46th in rushing defense, 69th in passing defense, 45th in total defense, 81st in turnover margin, and 81st in tackles for loss.  

The key is scoring defense.  Iowa is 12th allowing only 17.40 points per game.   The Hawkeyes allow opponents to march freely between the 20s, but when they get within the shadow of the Hawkeye end zone, the defense clamps down and forces FGs.   Four of Iowa's last 5 games have had the following scores:  19-21, 10-17, 10-17, and 17-10.  Network executives' feelings.  

Ohio State is a 17.5 favorite with the Over/Under at 52.5.   Please note, this is the lowest O/U Vegas has set for an Ohio State game all season.  Coincidentally, it ties the highest O/U set for an Iowa game all season.   6 of Ohio State's 8 games have gone "Over" while 6 of Iowa's 8 games have gone "Under." Something's gotta give on Saturday.

Ohio State has won 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last 8 in Iowa City.  Iowa, on the other hand, is 3-1 at home against AP Top 5 opponents.  Ohio State is 

3-0 ATS on the road in 2017, while Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog in the last 11 years.  

If this game was in the Shoe, I'm pretty sure I would take Iowa and the 17.5.  But the Buckeyes play so well on the road that it is hard to ignore. Plus, Iowa does nothing that really scares me. Sophomore QB Nathan Stanley (4) does not run.  He stays in the pocket.  I think that allows us to rush 5 or even 6 since we don't have to worry about scrambling.  His completion percentage is in the mid-50s so put some pressure on him and he'll make mistakes. Senior RB Akrum Wadley (25) is a small tank, but he is the only guy who carries the ball. If he's in the game, focus on him.  Iowa does have a good FG kicker, so if our kickoff coverage team allows a few long returns, Iowa may get some FGs.  Otherwise, I can't see our defense giving up more than 10-13 points.

Iowa's defense may be good, but is there any offense equivalent to what we have going now? (Rhetorical).  We score as many points in the 1st quarter as Iowa scores in the 1st half.   We've scored more points in the 1st half than Iowa has scored all season.  I think we get up early, force Ferentz to abandon the run, and the DL wreaks havoc.  The weather will be a little wet early, but no wind and mild temps.  No hangover for the Buckeyes.  Give the points and take the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 49, Iowa 13. 

Bonus link:  In case you wonder about the B1G schools fight songs and other music they play, here's a handy link.

Big Ten Conference College Football Fight Music Songs College Football Fight Music brings you the greatest fight songs of the colleges and universities in the Unite...

Penn State

Don't worry.  I'm not going to leave you hanging.  And speaking of cold, welcome "fall" to Ohio.  And by "fall" I mean winter.  46 and rain at kickoff and otherwise just an ugly day.  Kind of brings back memories of a certain windmill kicker. Yeah, I hate that guy.  But I'll get back to the revenge (and to MSU) later.

You may recall I had a bad feeling about Oklahoma.  I literally said it over and over, like this.  And despite that feeling, I talked myself out of picking Oklahoma to beat us.  Well, I had a bad feeling about Penn State too.  I mean, they are No. 2 in the nation. They have the No. 1 scoring defense. They are No. 2 in turnover margin and No. 6 in fewest penalties committed.  They have a mobile, dangerous QB and a Heisman candidate RB on offense, and an extremely stingy defense.  They are outscoring opponents 90-0 in the 1st quarter so far this year.  Michigan's defense was supposed to be great and Penn State put up 42 on them.  You should also know that this will be the 8th time where both schools are ranked in the Top Ten.  The 3 other times Penn State has been ranked higher than Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have won.  To add insult to injury, two of those 3 wins occurred in Columbus.  Meanwhile, the only team with a heartbeat that we've really played - one that also had a very mobile QB - skewered us to the tune of 31-16.  Mindset (heavy on the sarcasm).

Looking for a silver lining, I noted this game is at 3:30, not 8:00 p.m. because of the World Series.  At first, I thought that was a blessing. Urban Meyer has lost 7 games while at The Ohio State University.  6 of those kicked off at 8:00 p.m.  He is undefeated at Noon.  He's only lost one that kicked off at 3:30.  But then I remembered that the ONE was MSU in 2015.  And, yes, the weather on Saturday will be just like MSU in 2015. (But not for me because I'll be at EPCOT in Orlando on a whirlwind 48 hour trip to WDW to celebrate my son's birthday, but I digress).  Put it all together and I went all Captain Brody on my stuff. Then,

I said to myself, "Self, let's look at Penn State's opponents."  Here's a quick chart:

Opponent                    Record                  Total Offense Rank      Scoring Offense Rank

Akron                            4-4                                117                            102

Pittsburgh                     3-5                                  93                              98

Georgia State                3-3                                 85                             114

Iowa                              4-3                                104                              81

Indiana                          3-4                                  95                              89

Northwestern                4-3                                  74                              83

Michigan                       5-2                                  98                              90

Not exactly "elite" teams.  Not exactly "elite" offenses. Maybe it's easy to be No. 1 in scoring defense when you play a schedule like this. (Note - Indiana that PSU faced was much different than the one the Buckeyes faced in Week 1. Total change at QB).  So, maybe we should not be so critical of Ohio State's improved performance facing less than stellar talent because everyone is raving about how great PSU is while facing a similar schedule.

"But the Nittany Lions have Trace McSorley at QB.  He's so dangerous!" (my internal monologue).   McSorley completes 66.8% of his passes.  He has 8.54 ypa (yards per attempt) and has thrown 14 TDs v. 5 INTs.  J.T. Barrett, on the other hand, completes 66% of his passes, has a 9.7 ypa, and has thrown 20 TDs v. 1 INT.  Let that sink in for a second.  And if you want to compare running ability?   McSorley 3.1 yards/rush v. Barrett 6.5 yards/rush.

"And the media loves Saquon Barkley.  He's the Heisman front runner." (yes, I talk to myself. A lot).  Well, Barkley has 757 yards on 117 rushes.  J.K. Dobbins has 775 yards on 100 rushes.

So, what's my point?  Maybe Penn State isn't all that great.  Or, maybe Ohio State is just as good, if not better, than Penn State.  

Anyway, I promised to get back to revenge and MSU.

Urban Meyer is 45-4 in his career with more than 1 week to prepare for an opponent.  He is 19-1 in October at Ohio State.  As our coach, he has never had 2 losses in a season before December 31.  And he is 3-0 in "revenge" games (games in which he plays an opponent the next season after a loss).  Spoiler alert:  we lost to Penn State in 2016.

As for MSU references?  Well, I am thinking about a game v. Sparty, but it's not the 2015 debacle in the Shoe.  Rather it's the 2014 matchup in East Lansing.  Buckeyes suffered an early season loss at home, and had put together a mild win streak v. weaker opponents.  Michigan State was higher ranked and had beat Urban in the B1G championship the year before, so it was a revenge game.  Michigan State had a tremendous defense with gaudy statistics.  And the weather was a lousy 39 degrees and overcast.  At the time, who could blame me for being negative?

But then the unexpected happened.  Ohio State's offense continued it's dominance over a defense that was supposed to stop it.  Rather than a lower scoring slugfest, we saw more of a track meet.  The teams combined for 86 points while the pre-game O/U was 57.5. The Buckeyes put 49 on the mighty MSU and won by 12. J.T. was dropping dimes and running free.

My message to you for this weekend - expect the unexpected.

Ohio State opened up as a 7.5 favorite.  I was shocked.   The line has come down now to 6.5, meaning people are betting on Penn State and taking the points.  I thought that was the very smart move.  Then, I started seeing little hints here and there that the sharks are going to take the Buckeyes and give the points.  Maybe that's "#fakenews" but maybe not.

Call me crazy, call me delusional, but I feel very confident that this will be a game none of us expected.  Except me, because I'm telling you now what I expect.  No low scoring slugfest.  No Ohio State boondoggle on offense.  No Saquon Barkley Heisman capping performance.  Take the Buckeyes, give the 6.5 and bet the over (54.5).

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 42, Penn State 27.

Bye Week Predictions

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It's bye week people!  I hate bye weeks.  I know they make sense to get the players healthy, add suspense to the season, blah, blah, blah fishcakes.  A week without Ohio State football is 7 days too long. So, I will look at other B1G games and games of interest to help get us through until Penn State on October 28.

Disclaimer - while on occasion I am scary good at predicting Ohio State scores, on these others, ehhhhh, not so much.  That being said, here we go.

Iowa (4-2) at Northwestern (3-3):  Iowa - 1.5
Who you should root for:  Iowa. We play them. I want them to have a good record.
Who you should bet on: Iowa. N'western has been a disappointment and Iowa is 9-2 in their last 11 Big Ten road games.

Purdue (3-3) at Rutgers (2-4):  Purdue - 9
Who you should root for: Rutgers. Purdue is not on our schedule.
Who you should bet on: Rutgers. Can Rutgers make it 2 consecutive wins in B1G after going 0-9 last year? No, but Purdue hasn't beaten a B1G opponent on the road (except Illinois) since 2012.

Maryland (3-3) at Wisconsin (6-0):  Wisconsin - 24
Who you should root for:  Wisconsin.  Having them unbeaten in B1G Championship would be good for us.
Who you should bet on: Wisconsin. They have been inconsistent, but will wear Maryland out.

Indiana (3-3) at Michigan State (5-1):  Michigan State - 6.5
Who you should root for: MSU. Might as well have them highly ranked when they come to the Shoe.
Who you should bet on: MSU. They have a history of handling Indiana in East Lansing and should roll.

Illinois (2-4) at Minnesota (3-3):  Minnesota - 14
Who you should root for:  Don't care.
Who you should bet on:  Illinois.  They stink but Minnesota has had 4 of 6 decided by 14 or less. This one will be within that too.

Michigan (5-1) at Penn State (6-0):  Penn State - 9.5
Who you should root for:  I cannot root for UM. I cannot advise you to root for UM.  And, it is likely in Ohio State's best interest to have Penn State unbeaten next week.
Who you should bet on:  Never bet a Michigan game.  Never, ever, never, ever.  They will always disappoint you. But if you feel so compelled, take the Wolverines and the points because their defense will keep this close and low scoring.  Harbaugh is 8-3 on the road S/U and 5-5-1 ATS.  PSU is 17-1 in their last 18 home games, but 12-6 ATS. Too much uncertainty.  My gut tells me it is a 20-14 bloodbath.

Some others:

USC (6-1) at Notre Dame (5-1):  Notre Dame - 3.5
Who you should root for:  Notre Dame. I don't think a one loss Irish leaps over us, but I fear if USC runs the table, they could.
Who you should bet on:  USC.  They may win outright. If they lose, it will probably be by a FG.

Tennessee (3-3) at Alabama (7-0): Alabama - 36
Who you should root for:  Tennessee.  It would be hilarious if it happened.
Who you should bet on:  Bama.  The Vols are a dumpster fire.

Kansas (1-5) at TCU (6-0):  TCU - 37.5
Who you should root for:  Kansas.  Ain't gonna happen but you can try.
Who you should bet on:  Kansas.  It's a huge spread in a matchup that TCU has had difficulty winning, let alone covering.  TCU's last five wins by an average of 7 points.

Oklahoma State (5-1) at Texas (3-3):  Oklahoma State - 7
Who you should root for:  Texas.  Need the Big 12 to eliminate themselves.
Who you should bet on:  Texas.  Longhorns are 18-1 in the games immediately following the Red River Shootout.  Expect something unexpected.

Syracuse (4-3) at Miami, Fla. (5-0):  Miami - 16.5
Who you should root for:  Syracuse.  Never, ever root for the Canes.
Who you should bet on:  Miami.  Yes, they have barely won the last 2 weeks, but Syracuse will be hung over after their upset of Clemson.  Miami will beat them up.

Nebraska

This is Mike Riley.  Mike is a "Dead Coach Walking." The AD that hired him without really interviewing anyone else has been sacked, the team is mired in mediocrity, and Coach has no real support in the Administration.  Other than that, life is fine.

Do you remember 2011?  Here's a history refresher.  My memory of this night is that I went to bed at the 2:00 mark of this video (halftime).  Believe it or not, 6 years ago I did not yet have a smartphone, I had a Blackberry, so I couldn't check the score when I got up that morning.  I don't think we even had a DVR yet, so I was videotaping all the games. I went downstairs, watched us go up 27-6, happily ate my Crispix, and then . . . 

Strange things happen at night, but I don't think this episode will repeat for three reasons: (1) Urban Meyer won't allow it; (2) This time we are ranked and the Huskers are not; and (3) that 2011 team was not talented enough to overcome the loss of Braxton.

Plus, as noted above, things are looking bleak in Lincoln.  Not as bleak as Bruce Springsteen's account of Charlie Starkweather, but well on their way.  The Huskers barely beat the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Week 1.  That close call was not an aberration as Nebraska then lost at Oregon and at home to Northern Illinois.  From the MAC.  The Huskers did beat Rutgers at home by 10.  You may recall we beat Rutgers by 56 on the road. After a win at Illinois, Nebraska lost by 21 to Wisconsin in Lincoln.  If we win Saturday night, it would be the Huskers 3rd home loss of the season - an event that has not occurred since . . . 2015, Mike Riley's first season as coach.

This is only the 3rd meeting between the schools since that 2011 fiasco.  Urban won both of those games by scores of 63-38 and 62-3.  Given the way both our offense and defense have been looking, and the problems Nebraska is having, the score should be similar.

But here comes Vegas with Ohio State only being favored by 24 with an over/under of 58.  What gives?  Statistically, Nebraska's offense will have difficulty scoring on us, and their defense doesn't show anything that would indicate they could stop the Buckeyes.  Now, the Huskers are 46-6 in home night games and had a 20 game win streak snapped by Wisconsin last week, so maybe the sharks think Nebraska will play above their level.  Don't buy it.  Here's what you need to know:  Nebraska has made great adjustments at halftime, but Ohio State is outscoring its opponents 60-14 in the first quarter, while Nebraska is being outscored 38-66.  The 2nd quarter doesn't get any better for the Huskers.  This game SHOULD be over after 30 minutes and it won't matter what adjustments are made.  The Buckeyes on the road under Meyer have been terrific and I think they will be again this Saturday.  I'm giving the points and taking the over.

And now, I'd like to conclude this blog with a hymn.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 56, Nebraska 17. (Season 5-1 S/U, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 on O/U).

Maryland

Time is flying.  This is game 6 in a 12 game regular season schedule.  

This one is a tough one. In the immortal words of Farrokh Bulsara, I got no feel, I got no rhythm for this one.

Virtually everything tells me that I should take Maryland and the 31 points Vegas is offering this Saturday.

1. The Terrapins are 2-0 S/U and 2-0 ATS on the road in 2017.  Saturday's game is in Columbus.

2. Maryland won 51-41 at Texas in Week 1 and 31-24 at Minnesota last week.

3. In 2016, Maryland was a 31.5 dog at the Shoe and covered in a 49-28 loss (a game that was tied at 21-21 in the 3rd quarter).

4. The Buckeyes under Urban Meyer are 4-10 ATS when favored by 30+.  

5. The Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS in the Shoe in 2017.

6. Maryland's offense is averaging 38.80 points per game.

7. Maryland's rushing offense and rushing defense are statistically equal to Ohio State's.

8. The Terrapins defense has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in eight (8) consecutive games.

All of this just makes me think the 31 points are too rich.  But then there's a small part that thinking:

Maryland is on their 3rd string QB. Spare me the 2014 references to Ohio State - it's not the same. Terrell Pigrome started at Texas but got injured.  He's out for the year. Kasim Hill replaced him but got injured in the 3rd game.  He's out for the year. So, Sophomore Max Bortenschlager (18) takes over.  He's not supposed to run much.  He's probably not going to pass too much.  He's going to manage the game and occasionally throw to Jr. WR DJ Moore (1) who has a very impressive 30 catches for 403 yards and 5 TDs so far.   Most of the time, Maryland is going to run Jr. RB Ty Johnson (6) and Soph. RB Lorenzo Harrison (2).  Their OL is experienced, they don't turn the ball over, they don't give up that many sacks, and I think they can score.

Their defense is a bit of a mess though. Although they haven't given up 100 yards to a single rusher, they let UCF run for 250 yards against them. They allow teams to convert almost 50% of 3rd downs.  And while the offense scores 38.8 ppg, the defense gives up 30/game.

If I were a betting man, I think I would stay away from the spread on this one and probably just bet the over (58.5).  I would do that because either (a) Ohio State will crush Maryland and put up 50 or more themselves or (b) Maryland will put up a fight and score enough to put the point total over.  But this is my preview and I tell you what I think will happen so I have to take a stand.  That stand by the way is 5-0 ATS so far and 3-2 on the over/under.  Now with that "humble brag" out of the way, I've most assuredly doomed this prediction to fail.

I think Maryland's offense is one dimensional and their 3rd string QB may be in for a long day.  Their defense is not that good. We seem to be clicking and we should have a big day. Yet, we are still undisciplined [read: 113th in penalty yards per game. Yikes!] and guys are not playing up to levels we have seen from them before [example: Jerome Baker].

Buckeye Breakdown: LB: Could Less Lead To More? Ohio State LB have found themselves out of position at times during the 2017 season partly due to their speed, a...

So, I fall back on the most illogical thing I can find to make my pick. In Week 1, I told you to give the points. In Week 2, I told you to take them. Then give, then take, and then give last week.  Take is up, so take I will, but with almost no confidence.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 45, Maryland 20.

Rutgers

Before I get to this week's game, just a note about my experience in the Shoe last week:

I'm not saying it was hot, but Matthew and I saw two hobbits walk down the row then throw a ring onto the field. Thankfully, the game was over quickly and by the time we left with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, the crowd of 106,000 was down to 40,000 or less. 

Yeah, me neither.  For some reason, in college football, there are teams that just don't match up well with others.  The converse is also true - that no matter the records or talent, Team B is always a thorn in Team A's side.  For Woody, it was Michigan State.  For Earle, it was Wisconsin.  For Cooper - well, there are lots of choices.  Even the Senator had issues with Purdue.  Rutgers is not Urban's Team B (cough, Indiana).  Ohio State has outscored Rutgers 163-24 in their 3 meetings (56-17, 49-7, and 58-0).  FYI - the Buckeyes did cover the spread in all 3.  No, we will not see anything close to this on Saturday night.

But we are on the road, you say.  Shouldn't we be worried, you say? (Sigh)

Since Urban's arrival in 2012, in true road games, Ohio State is 23-1.  Let that sink in for a moment.  I'll wait.  You are 3x more likely to see Ohio State lose at home or at a neutral site than they are in the opponent's home field.   Not only that, but the Buckeyes are 15-9 ATS in those 24 road games.   And four of those Ls belong to Penn State and the above-insinuated Indiana Hoosiers.  Without them Ohio State is 15-5 ATS in true road games.  Word.

Last week I wrote: "Urban's Buckeye teams have been favored by 30+ 13 times since he arrived and are a not so impressive 4-9 ATS." Well, you can now make that 4-10.  However, if we get that number under 30, then Ohio State is a bit more impressive at 9-6 ATS (And if you want to take the Hoosiers out of the equation, it goes to 9-4 ATS).  Vegas has put the Buckeyes as 28.5 point favorites with an over/under of 53.  See where I might be going with this?

I am sensing some confusion on your part.  You are wondering why Vegas isn't putting up a bigger number.  The explanation is Rutgers defense is improved.  In fact, statistically, Rutgers' D looks better than our D in many categories.  34th best passing defense, 38th best rushing defense, and 24th in total defense are remarkable rankings for a team that lost to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State by a combined score of 0-175 last year.  

But pulling back the curtain, we see Rutgers has achieved those stats v. Eastern Michigan, Morgan State, and a "troubled" Nebraska. True, Rutgers played top 10 Washington tough, but it was the first game and the Huskies had to fly clear across the country.  I, too, am perplexed how Rutgers' defense can be so good when they rank 118th in Sacks and 118th in Tackles for Loss.  They are getting no D-line penetration even against questionable offensive line talent. So color me doubtful on the improved Scarlet Knights defense. 

On offense, new QB Kyle Bolin has less than impressive throwing statistics:  57% completion rate and only 160 yards per game.  Their leading rusher is averaging 65 yards per game.  The Knights will need good field position to put up much against our defense.

So, I think J.T. Barrett will have loads of time to decide what to do with the ball.  If Rutgers drops 8 men into coverage and we cannot pick an open man, I think we will see a healthy dose of JT pulling the ball down and running.  I think our OL has its way with Rutgers DL and I expect lots from JK Dobbins.  I see lots of points on our side.  And unless we turn the ball over, I don't see Rutgers mounting any drives or breaking long plays like UNLV managed to do.  Weather is supposed to be clear and cool in the 50s for the evening kickoff.  I like the Buckeyes to be in the 50s as well, so I'm giving the points and taking the over.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 52, Rutgers 10.   (On the season, 3-1 S/U, 4-0 ATS).

UNLV

This will be mercifully short because I cannot get the meme generator to work, nor can I find any video of a 1987 SNL skit about studying at UNLV.  And so, I present a series of random facts:

1.  This is the first meeting between UNLV and Ohio State.  UNLV is coached by OSU backup QB Tate Martell's old high school coach, Tony Sanchez.  Sanchez was at Bishop Gorman High for Tate's Freshman and Sophomore years.

2.  The Rebels will be playing at 9:00 a.m. local time for them.  In the past decade they have only played a Noon ET kickoff once and that was in 2015 when they lost 7-28 to TTUN in Harbaugh's first year (The Wolverines were a 35 point favorite in that one).

3.  UNLV has the No. 4 Rushing Offense in the nation at 350.5 ypg.  Unlike Army, they do not run the triple option. They have a scrambling Redshirt FR QB named (1) Armani Rogers (who is also 6'5" 225), and a versatile RB (3) Lexington Thomas (5'9" 170).  They do not throw much as Rogers has attempted only 35 passes in 2 games.  When he throws it, it will most likely go to Sr. WR (83) Devante Boyd, who has 6 catches for 208 yards and 2 TDs.

4.  UNLV has no defense.  They are No. 114 in stopping the run, No. 90 in total defense, and No. 91 in scoring defense.  The DL does not pressure the oppositions QB, and they allow 43% conversions on 3rd down.  I should mention that so far UNLV lost to FCS Howard and defeated Idaho.  So you see the level of competition.

5.  UNLV does play ranked teams every year, so they won't be that fazed about coming to the Shoe.  They are, however,1-19 in their last 20 matchups with top 25 teams with those losses coming by an average of 25.5 ppg.

6.  Ohio State is favored by 40.5 with the over/under at 63.5.  Urban's Buckeye teams have been favored by 30+ 13 times since he arrived and are a not so impressive 4-9 ATS.  Twice Ohio State was favored by 40:  2013 v. Florida A&M (our 76-0 victory covered the 49.5 spread) and 2015 v. Hawai'i (we failed to cover the 41 point spread despite winning 38-0).

7.  Matthew and I will be at the game Saturday.  Matthew is 5-0 S/U & 4-1 ATS attending games while I'm 34-6 S/U (I haven't calculated my ATS impact). 

Prediction:  UNLV is not very good, but they have some talent.  Their coach is turning them around.  We played one dimensional Army last week and it's time to get back to someone more conventional.  Our offense is improving but still not firing on all cylinders.  Our defense still has work to do.  I think we run the ball more this week which will keep the clock moving and shorten the game, but we won't score as much as Vegas thinks we will.  UNLV will get a couple of scores and keep it comfortably within the spread.  So, take the 40.5 and bet the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 45, UNLV 13   (2-1 S/U; 3-0 ATS so far this season).