Penn State

Me this week:

Seriously.  I mean, I've flip-flopped so many times leading up to this that you might as well call me:

On the one hand, after the Nittany Lions joined the B1G and Cooper went 5-4 v. JoePa, The Ohio State University is 12-4 v. PSU, including a 5-2 mark in Happy Valley.  The higher ranked team has won 19 of the last 23 matchups (for those of you playing at home it may help to know that Ohio State is No. 4 while PSU is No. 9).  ESPN GameDay will be there and Ohio State is 5-1 when the show comes to an OSU-PSU matchup.  The Buckeyes are 11-4 in road GameDay games.  And when Ohio State and Penn State have been both ranked in the Top Ten, Ohio State has won 7 of the 8 matchups.  (*Interesting - to me at least, this will be the 9th such Top Ten meeting, but only the 3rd in Happy Valley. The first was in 1976, then 21 years later in 1997, and now another 21 years later in 2018. Get your calendar out and pencil in a similar meeting for 2039).   And this is only the 3rd time the teams have met in September in the last 25 years and Ohio State won both of those early matchups (2000 & 2006). 

Urban Meyer is 47-3 in regular season Big Ten Conference play (49-4 if you include the B1G Championship), and 26-2 in true road games.  That is phenomenal.  The only coaches with fewer conference losses are the interim coach at Maryland and the first year coach at Nebraska.  The Buckeyes have already gone on the road and faced a ranked team, fallen behind, and come back to win.  They are tested, they are tough, and they are rolling.  OSU has arguably the best offense in the country and the best DL in the nation.

So, clearly I must chose Ohio State. But, . . . 

Since losing at Michigan 10-49 on September 24, 2016, Penn State has gone 25-3 in all games.  Those 3 losses were v. USC (by 3), at Ohio State (by 1), and at Michigan State (by 3).  That's. Pretty. Darn. Good.  (Conversely, the Buckeyes are 23-4 over that span with 2 of the losses each coming by 31 points).  Penn State has the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation (yes, Ohio State is No. 2), despite losing their Offensive Coordinator to Mississippi State and the nation's "best" RB to the NFL.  They have won 16 straight home games, and boast the 3rd longest current win streak at 8 (granted, OSU is 2nd at 9, both well behind UCF who is on 16).  Oh, and that point above about how the higher ranked team is 19-4 in this series?  In the last 2 matchups, the lower ranked team has won this game, which, coincidentally, PSU is this year. 

So, clearly I must chose Penn State.

You may say, "You're just stalling now."  True, at times I feel like Vizzini.  Where was I? Oh, yes.

Vegas has the Buckeyes favored by 3.5 with the over/under 71.  

So, with all that in mind, here is what I think will happen:  Penn State have lost 8 starters on defense and they are 82nd in the nation in Rushing D giving up an average of 175 ypg to the likes of App State, Akron, Pitt and Illinois.  We have J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber.  No offense to those other teams but our 2 guys are better.  Much.  We will hit them with some 10 yard gains, then Haskins will throw for a TD.  PSU's scoring offense, though No. 1 nationally, has started very slowly in games.  Molasses-like.  They will punt and we will repeat.  It will be 14-0 Buckeyes before you know it.  Then, Penn State will score, we will score some more and at the half, Ohio State will lead 24-14.  You will be feeling pretty good.  

And then you won't.

There is a reason 3 of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 or less, and that the average margin of victory for the games in Happy Valley is only 8, compared to the blowouts that occur in Cbus.

The Nittany Lions will come out in the 2nd half like a different team.  QB Trace McSorley will be making play after play, keeping drives alive and making you wonder what happened to the Buckeye LBs.  

Meanwhile, OSU's offense will slow waaaaaayyyy down and the next thing you know, the 3rd quarter will end with Penn State leading 28-24.  At this point, if you haven't done so, please remove all loved ones from your immediate area.

Early 4th quarter, J.K. Dobbins scores. Yay!  PSU blocks the XP.  Boo!    PSU drives into OSU territory, but go for it on 4th down and fail. Buckeyes lead 30-28, with 5 minutes left, but cannot move the ball, let alone score.  A punt ensues.  Tate McSorley drives the Nittany Lions to the Ohio State 35 with 2 minutes to go.  During a timeout you are frantically searching the internet to find out about Penn State's kicker (I'll save you the trouble, his name is Jake Pinegar, he's a freshman from Ankeny, Iowa and he is 1-3 in FGA this year: made from 32 yards and missed both chances over 40).  Ok, so you feel a little better knowing that he'll have to make a 52 yarder, that is until Trace McSorley runs 13 yards for a first down.  PSU ball at the OSU 22.  1:20 on the clock.  All fragile items in your immediate vicinity are in grave danger. Grave danger.

Then you recall that Urban Meyer is 11-1 in games where the point spread is less than 7 and James Franklin is 2-5 in those very same games.  You say to yourself, "Self, there must be a reason for this." And the reason comes to you.  It arrives in the form of an ill-advised pass play when the Nittany Lions try to get the ball a little closer for their kicker instead of simply running the clock down.  A ball that should never be thrown ends up in the arms of Buckeye DB Damon Arnette. You will be greatly relieved.  You and your loved ones will be happy.  James Franklin will be sad. (Photo removed because it would not load) 

And there will be some out of tune singing.

Your final score:

Ohio State   14  10   0   6  - 30

Penn State     7   7  14  0  - 28

Schaef so far this year:

S/U:  4-0

ATS: 2-2

Over/Under: 3-1