Do you remember Joseph Charles John Piscopo? Overshadowed by Eddie Murphy (rightfully so) and often forgotten during any retrospective of SNL (indeed, 1981-1985 rarely gets mentioned), Piscopo had a talent for impressions (Frank Sinatra, Tom Snyder just to name two), and created some memorable characters such as this guy.
Which leads us to this Saturday when THE Ohio State University will take on THE State University of New Jersey, better known as Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have only been in the B1G five years now, but does anyone remember their first conference win? Good times. Good times.
The match up of Ohio State and Rutgers has produced some similar classic battles, such as: 56-17, 49-7, 58-0, and 56-0. At least we'll always have this memory.
The line opened with Ohio State favored by 34 and it has now climbed to 35. The over/under is 64.5. With a history of Rutgers not scoring for 2 years and never coming within 39 points, AND the game being played one week after Ohio State put up 77 points, seems like an easy OSU win and cover, doesn't it? Give the points, take the over, and this preview is done.
To quote ESPN GameDay co-host Lee Corso, "not so fast my friend." Or better yet, how about the great military leader Admiral Akbar:
Remember folks, it is Week 2 of the season. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, "When will the lesson be learned? You don't take the Buckeyes and give the points in Week 2 when they've covered in Week 1."
Come with me on a stroll down memory lane. Let's go back to 2003 and see what has happened in Week 2 when Ohio State has covered the spread in its first game:
Year Opponent Spread Final S/U ATS
2003 - San Diego State (+30.5) 16-13 W L
2004 - Marshall (+16.5) 24-21 W L
2005 - Texas (+ 1.5) 22-25 L L
2006 - at Texas (- 2) 24-7 W W
2007 - Akron (+29) 20-2 W L
2008 - Ohio University (+33.5) 26-14 W L
2010 - Miami, Fla. (+ 9) 36-24 W W
2011 - Toledo (+18) 27-22 W L
2012 - UCF (+18) 31-16 W L
2014 - Virginia Tech (+11.5) 21-35 L L
2015 - Hawai'i (+41) 38 - 0 W L
2016 - Tulsa (+28) 48- 3 W W
2017 - Oklahoma (+ 7) 16-31 L L
One of those wins came on the road as a dog. We are not a dog on the road this week. When a favorite at home after covering the spread in week one, Ohio State (under Tressel, Fickell, and Meyer) is 9-3 Straight up and 2-10 ATS. Just let that sink in for a moment. Go ahead, look back on that "murderers' row" of opponents we faced too. The average spread in those 12 games was 20.5.
Rutgers coach Chris Ash (former Ohio State Defensive coordinator) is in his 3rd year and improved the Knights from 0-9 to 3-6 in conference play. He's got a fantastic Freshman QB in Artur Sitkowski and 15 returning starters in the other 21 positions. Rutgers also went from 1-4 as an away dog to 4-1 ATS, including covering at Nebraska, at Michigan, and at Penn State last year. They are improving and will give us more of a battle than the past 2 seasons.
As for the Buckeyes, maybe there will be a little overconfidence from Week 1 and a little looking ahead to next week's matchup versus 16th ranked TCU. Perhaps the things that worked really well last week will just not click. Then again, maybe I'm reading too much into this and Ohio State will once again steamroll Rutgers. But then again, it is very difficult to continually cover the big numbers. In the past 5 seasons, Ohio State is 12-12 ATS when favored by 25+, 7-10 ATS when favored by 30+. and 2-3 ATS when favored by 35+. We covered 38 points last week. Can we do another big number again? I am a firm believer in trends and history and for whatever reason, I cannot ignore the Week 2 pattern. So, I advise you take Rutgers and the points and bet the under.
Schaef Says: Ohio State 38, Rutgers 17.
Bonus: My favorite Joe Piscopo clip:
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