I'm not distracted. Maybe it's you. Maybe you're distracted.
(imagine a satellite image of Hurricane Florence here, which for some reason will not post and is why I'm posting this preview 10 days late)
Okay, it is me. Slightly preoccupied with a visit from someone named Florence that I'd just as rather not meet, so this may be mercifully short as, well, why me when Colonel Potter can say it better?
Sorry if you lost money on my prediction last week. I didn't go with my heart; I went with my head and the stats. I wasn't the only one.
So if the statistics can be wrong, should we not use them?
Oh, hell no.
In their last 20 non-conference games (including this year) TCU has faced 1 nationally ranked team. That was 2014 when they lost 37-27 to LSU coincidentally in Arlington. The Horned Frogs are 2-4 ATS as a home dog over the past 10 seasons. "But this isn't a home game," one of you will whine (and you know who you are). Okay then, TCU is 2-10 ATS on neutral fields. Happy now? Further ammo: TCU is 4-7 straight up in their last 11 v. ranked opponents, and 1-4 straight up against Top 5 opponents.
Yes, HC Gary Patterson is a defensive genius and he has the Big 12's top rated DL, LB, and DBs. He will undoubtedly throw looks at QB Dwayne Haskins that will cause him to make some mistakes in his reads, and that may affect how the OL blocks. But while TCU does have a good defense, it is prone to giving up big points in the explosive Big 12. For example, Oklahoma scored 38 and 41 in both of its games v. the Horned Frogs last year. Ohio State's offense is just as explosive - if not more explosive - than the 2017 Sooners.
Even if Patterson and the defense succeed in slowing Ohio State down, TCU has some issues on the offensive side, namely an inexperienced QB and OL. Phil Steele has TCU's experience level ranked as 120 out of 130 FBS schools, and their 5 man OL has only 26 career starts entering the season. Gentelmen, meet Mr. Bosa, Mr. Young, Mr. Jones, and Mr. Landers. They are going to be spending a lot of time in your backfield and discussing current events with your skill players. I do expect the Horned Frogs to score some points, especially early on, but to have some difficulties moving the ball on a sustained basis after the first 1.5 quarters.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is 33-5 straight up in Road/Neutral games since 2012, which is the best percentage (.868) nationally. The Buckeyes are 12-4 straight up v. ranked teams, with 5 of those wins against top 15 teams. The Buckeyes are 2-0 in Arlington and 7-1 ATS on a neutral field.
The line right now is 12.5 with an over/under of 60. I'd stay away from the total but I would encourage you to take the Buckeyes and give the points. The game will be tense for the first 25 minutes, but a late 1st half score will provide some breathing room. In the second half, the Buckeyes will slowly put the game out of reach.
Schaef Says: Ohio State 42, TCU 20.
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