Belmont Stakes

*Note - this is as I wrote it back in June, just didn't publish it on this blog but rather sent to a few friends.   Wanted it here for safekeeping

BELMONT STAKES 2019

The 151st running of the Belmont Stakes

Saturday, June 8, 2019 - Post time 6:37 p.m. EDT

Coverage on NBC begins at 5:00 p.m.

            No Triple Crown chance this year, but plenty to watch for with Saturday’s race as War of Will can be the first horse to pull off the Preakness-Belmont double since Afleet Alex in 2005.  Nine other horses will try and stop that from happening.

            What trends can we find in looking at past Belmonts?  Let’s start with the winners’ previous race.  In the last 27 Belmont Stakes, 9 winners came directly to New York from the Preakness, 9 came from the Kentucky Derby, and 9 came from other races.  So, nothing there. 

            What about where the Belmont winner finished in his/her prior race?  Well, 9 Belmont winners were coming off a win, 9 were coming off either a 2nd or 3rd, and 9 had finished 4th or higher. Again, nothing there.

            How about betting?  Surely the odds makers know who will win.  Again, in the last 27 Belmonts, the favorite won 6 times, the second choice won 7 times, and those with higher odds won 14 times.  That’s noting to go on either.

            Ok, let’s look at a specific horse, say the Preakness winner, War of Will.  How do Preakness winners do at Belmont?  20 of the last 27 Preakness winners have run in the third jewel of the Triple Crown and 5 have won, 8 have finished 2nd or 3rd (in the money), but 7 have placed 4th or worse. (Sigh).

Well, how about when the Derby winner is not here, but the Preakness winner is?  It has happened 4 times before, but it should not surprise you that those winners continue the pattern of having no discernable pattern. (1 from Derby, 1 from Preakness, 2 from other races; 2 coming off wins, 1 with a 3rd, and 1 with a 13th; one was the favorite, two were 2nd choice, 1 a longshot).

            I have looked and looked for any trend to hang my hat on and I have found only one - no jockey has won back-to-back Belmonts in 35 years.  So, sorry Mike Smith (who won in 2018 on Justify), I don’t think you are going to take Bourbon War to the winner’s circle this year. 

            The only other thing that might qualify as a trend is that 22 of the last 27 jockeys to win have prior Belmont Stakes experience.  That makes sense because the “Big Sandy” is not your normal racetrack.  For one, it’s, well, big.  A mile and half around it is the largest track in North America.  Put it another way, Churchill Downs would fit inside Belmont’s dirt track.  And “Sandy” because the New York Racing Authority uses more sand (for draining purposes) than most tracks due to the amount of rain the track receives in the summer racing months.  This makes the track deeper and can tire horses out more than other dirt tracks.

            So, if we operate under the theory a jockey needs prior Belmont Stakes experience, we can eliminate Joevia and War of Will, because Jose Lezcano and Tyler Gafflione are making their debuts. While we are at it, let’s scratch Everfast because he has Luis Saez aboard.  You may remember that Saez was the jockey for Maximum Security in the Derby, and got suspended for reckless riding. This is his first big race since the Derby and I believe he will be ultra conservative in this race on a horse that was a longshot anyway.

            That leaves us with six: Master Fencer, Tax, Spinoff, Sir Winston, Intrepid Heart, and Tacitus.  Tacitus will likely be the favorite and finished 4th in the Derby (but was placed 3rd after the disqualification).  Jockey Jose Ortiz won the Belmont in 2017 and was second last year.  The colt has won twice in New York (at Aqueduct) and has the pedigree to go the distance.  My only concern is that he is a closer that comes on late and thus benefits from a fast pace.  There is never a fast pace in the Belmont because everyone knows how long the race is, so the early fractions are quite conservative.

            Tax is very similar to Tacitus with the exception that Tax likes to stalk close to the leaders rather than come from way back. His jockey, Irad Ortiz, won here in 2016 on longshot Creator.  Tax’s training runs at Belmont have not been great, which is a concern, but then again may not have anything to do with how he will run Saturday.

            Bob Baffert does not have any horses running, but Todd Pletcher has both Spinoff and Intrepid Heart.  Pletcher has won the Belmont Stakes three times, so if you believe the trainer can make the difference, then pick one of those.

            As I stated above, since there is no discernable pattern to rely upon, any horse you pick has just as good a chance any other of the others.

            For me, I’m going out on a limb and going with Sir Winston.  While his finishes on the Kentucky Derby trail earlier this year were, in a word, “meh,” he may be coming into his own.  One week after the Derby he finished second in the Peter Pan Stakes on this very track.  Joel Rosario will be aboard and Rosario won the 2014 Belmont with Tonalist, who went off at 18-1.  His trainer is the same as War of Will’s, Mark Casse.   Finally, his grandfather on his mother’s side is 2005 winner Afleet Alex.  Plus, I like the name.

            But, I was wrong for the Derby and wrong again for the Preakness.  So, take my pick with the proverbial grain of salt, or sand, in this case.