Michigan

After Saturday, this was my first reaction.

But then, I met this kid and I knew I needed to get my act together and fast.

Sure, our chances at defending our National Championship in the CFP have gone from 90% to 10%, but how often do you win a NC anyway?  We’ve played for 4 in the past 14 years.  That’s not too shabby.  Sure it hurts when you lose the NC game or fall just short, but you get over it.   You don’t get over a loss to the Maize and Blue.   You. Just. Don’t.

And so, while I thought about mailing it in this week and giving you a 2 sentence (“I don’t know. I don’t care.”) preview – like the marines at Guantanamo, that little crying kid wants me on that wall.  He needs me on that wall.

Going to Ann Arbor is not as intimidating as it used to be.  The Buckeyes have won 5 of the last 7 in Michigan Stadium.   Sure, Brady Hoke beat us his first year at UM, but he beat a team that was 6-5 and run by an interim coach.   In 2007, after Ohio State blew an undefeated season losing to Illinois in the Shoe, the Buckeyes went up to Ann Arbor and beat a nationally ranked, Lloyd Carr led Michigan team, 14-3.   Even Earle Bruce was 3-2 in Ann Arbor against Bo.  Home field does not matter much here.

One stat that is troubling is that 6 of the last 7 UM coaches have won the Game their first time out (only Rich Rod in 2008 failed to do so).   But even though this is a rivalry game, the higher ranked team has gone 14-4, with one of those losses being when the teams were ranked #5 and #4.   And if you excuse an 0-5 stretch during the Cooper years, the higher ranked team was 14-6 in the 20 previous matches.  As I type, I don’t know where the CFP Committee will rank the two teams, but using the AP and Coaches as a guide, Ohio State should be around No. 8 and Michigan around No. 12.

Early in the season, Michigan’s defense was the hot thing.  But that squad has given up 126 points in their last 5 (MSU, Minn, Rutgers, Indiana, and PSU).  Meanwhile, the Silver Bullets have given up 132 points in their last 9 games.  (Disclosure – if you add up Michigan’s last 9 games you get 133 points against.  That’s pretty even).  Michigan hasn’t played many QBs who like to run, but when they have, they’ve given up over 100+ yards.  And it isn’t that the QB burns them, it appears to be the threat of the run that can turn into more yards for the RB (witness Indiana RB Jordan Howard going off for 238 yards).

This is not your typical Wolverine team on offense.  Much like Sparty, they lack a big time, give me the ball RB.  De’Veon Smith is a very good player, but overall Michigan is 81^st in rushing offense.  They managed only 62 yards rushing v. MSU and 87 v. PSU.  QB Jake Rudock certainly will not beat you with his legs.  Harbaugh will look to pound the ball to get to 3^rd and 5, then Rudock will complete a pass to TE Jake Butt, or WR Amara Darboh.   They will get the first down and keep the clock moving.   Michigan is No. 2 nationally in Time of Possession.  They will want to shorten the game and keep our O off the field, much like MSU did.

Obviously, the big question for Buckeye fans is whether this team (including coaching staff) will implode after last week’s fiasco, or bond together and come out better.  There’s still something to play for too.  I just cannot see this team turning against itself and falling apart.  The defense will be fine - it’s whether the offense can gel.   They proved against Penn State and Rutgers that they can, so I have more than hope.  The weather should be better this Saturday, and this team has ALWAYS played better on the road than at home.  Want proof – Ohio State is 48-4 under Meyer; 27-2 in Columbus, 4-2 in neutral site games, 17-0 in true road games.

This is Ohio State – Michigan.   You don’t need extra motivation, but here is some:  Ohio State went from being a virtual lock in the CFP to a 1.5 dog (over/under is 45).  Meyer and the Buckeyes are 6-0 S/U and 6-0 ATS as an underdog.  Redemption will arrive at 3:25 p.m. in Ann Arbor, Michigan.  Then, we will root for Penn State, but don’t expect a miracle.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 28, Michigan 20.

Michigan State

“The only constant in life is change.”  - Heraclitus of Ephesus (535 BC – 475 BC).  Or, maybe not.  I wasn’t around back then so maybe he didn’t say that.  But someone did.  Sometime.  I think.

This is the last game in the Shoe for Seniors LT Taylor Decker, C Jacoby Boren, RT Chase Farris, HB Braxton Miller, TE Nick Vannett, DT Adolphus Washington, DT Tommy Schutt, DT Joel Hale, and LB Joshua Perry.  It’s also likely the last home game for QB Cardale Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Michael Thomas, DE Joey Bosa, LB Darron Lee, S Vonn Bell, and S Tyvis Powell.   That’s enough to make for some strange sounds Saturday.   But we had this changing of the guard in 1970, 1976, 1981, 1995, 2003, and in 2006 (just to mention a few years that huge classes left) and we will have it again.   So, let’s raise a glass or bottle to these 9 seniors (there may be others) and these 7 underclassmen and say “Thank you for being a Buckeye.  We loved having you here.”

Okay, finally, after ten long weeks. Seriously, after Va. Tech, this game has been coming for sooooo long many Buckeye fans are like this guy.  But the Ohio State “preseason” is over.   Our “real” season officially begins Saturday.  Hopefully, it will be 5 games long.

Call me crazy, but I almost wish this game was in East Lansing.  In the last 35 years, the Buckeyes are 11-2 at Spartan Stadium winning by an average of 18 ppg, with some pretty big blowouts (wins by 38, 32, 31 and 24). Contrast that to our 8-3 record at home with the average winning margin being only 10 points.  Since 1979, Sparty has not lost by more than 14 points in Columbus, so I take notice. [You may want to read that again].  Maybe it’s because they are a team “fighting with a vim!” (They should change one of the lines to “Fight, Fight, Go Green White” but I digress).  MSU won in their last visit to Columbus, 10-7, but the Spartans have not won in back-to-back trips to the Shoe since 1951 & 1953. 

As much as people talk about how Ohio State has struggled, MSU has done the same.  2-7 ATS as a favorite with close wins over Purdue, Rutgers, and a miracle finish over TTUN.  Depending on your point of view, you could say lady luck ran out in Lincoln, or they got hosed by a terrible call.  Either way, this is not the Spartans we are used to seeing.  Right now, MSU is 92^nd in rushing offense.  Their leading rusher, L.J. Scott, has 519 yards.  What in the name of Lorenzo White is going on up there?  And their normally stout defense?  Sparty is 11^th in the B1G in passing yards allowed. Long time DC Pat Narduzzi left the East Lansing sidelines/press box to take over the HC position at Pitt and MSU may be missing him.  Of course, they gave up 49 to us and 41 to Baylor in 2014, so maybe there were cracks in the foundation then that are more apparent now.

Fortunately for them, they have QB Connor Cook whose gaudy 32-4 record as a starter rivals Urban Meyer’s 48-3 record as Buckeye HC.   The key question is “how is Cook’s shoulder?”  He sat out the 2^nd half v. Maryland as a precaution (and because, well, it was Maryland) and he says he’ll play.  But how effective will he be?   Will he look like Connor Cook or maybe more like the November 2015 version of Peyton Manning? One well-timed hit from Bosa or Washington could dramatically alter the course of this game.

As for the Buckeye offense, with RT Chase Farris securing long-term employment as a revolving door at the Polaris Mall after his playing career is over, will we be able to mount any passing attack to hit Sparty where they are (statistically) weak?  MSU has a good pass rush, but when we line up with a TE on Farris’ right and one behind him even Dantonio might think a pass is coming.  Maybe our gameplan will be to allow DE Calhoun & Co. to run upfield without opposition and hit them with a screen or draw or flat pass.  Either way, Barrett is going to have to watch his right flank.  Zeke should get his 100 but it will be tougher to come by.

I am flabbergasted that the Vegas line opened up at 13 and has now increased to 13.5.   The Sharps must know that Cook’s shoulder is not close to 100% as that is the only explanation that makes sense.  MSU is a big game team.  With Cook, they are 4-1 v. Top 10 and 7-3 v. Top 25.  Add to that their history in Columbus, I would expect the line to be closer to 5.   Game time weather promises to be a wonderful 43 degrees with rain.   Even if Cook cannot throw or is severely limited, this promises to be a close, lower scoring affair.

I think the Buckeyes win.  I do think you ought to excuse small children from the room and remove all fragile items in the surrounding area.   It’ll be squeaky bum time throughout the 4^th quarter and most of us will age more than we need to.  But in the end, OSU will survive and advance.  I’d take MSU with the points and bet the under (53).

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 28, Michigan State 25.

P.S.  You didn’t think for a minute that I would leave out my favorite video, did you?  Here’s your daily moment of zen, courtesy of John L.  Serenity now! 

Illinois

Last week we had to deal with “Ski-U-Mah.”   This week it’s “Os-kee-Wow-Wow.”   Apparently, unlike Ohio, marijuana initiatives did pass in the Big Ten West.

Champaign-Urbana in November sounds like an inhospitable place.  Although I haven’t been there, I’ve been close, and my memory is that it is flat, windy, and about 10 degrees colder than the thermometer says.  Not bad enough that you’ll need one of these, but still mighty chilly.  And yet, despite these drawbacks, the Buckeyes love to play at Memorial Stadium.

Ohio State has won 10 consecutive games at Illinois.   The Illini’s last 6 wins in the series have all come in Columbus (but sometimes losing a shoe is not the same as losing in the Shoe).  Their last win at home was 1991, a true B1G contest that ended 10-7. (Further nostalgia:  OSU featured QB Kent Graham, RBs Carlos Snow & Butler By’not’e, while Illinois had coach John Mackovic, QB John Verduzco, and RB Kameno Bell).  Those of us who are “older” remember the headaches Illinois and HC Mike White caused in the 1980s, but I was surprised to find out that Earle Bruce was 7-2 against them.  It was John Cooper (aka G—D---- Cooper) who was only 8-6 v. Illinois (so it wasn’t only scUM that he could not defeat).  The Senator was 5-2 against the Illini but many of the games were too close for comfort. 

Urban Meyer so far is 3 for 3 with an average score of 56-24.  But that was against Tim Beckman who isn’t coaching anymore simply because he “employed a wide array of motivational tactics that violated sports medicine standards and protocols.”  So, he (allegedly) called kids with concussions too “scared” to play and (allegedly) threatened to remove your scholarship if you went to a trainer for evaluation and treatment. So, he (allegedly) physically and (allegedly) verbally abused players.  Is that too high a price to pay for going 12-25 overall and 4-20 in the Big Ten in return?  Where are your priorities Illinois?   #sarcasm

Anyway, former Western Michigan HC Bill Cubit has taken over and the result is that the Illinois defense has dramatically improved.  The Illini have improved 70 or more places in the rankings for Rushing defense, Total defense, Scoring defense, 3^rd down defense, 1^st downs allowed, Pass efficiency defense, and interceptions.  Yes, you read that right – over 70 places.   They have gone from giving up 456 yards/game to 342, and giving up 34 ppg to 21.7.    Their offense?   Not so much.   Illinois is 98^th in Rushing Offense, 108^th in Pass Efficiency Offense, 97^th in 3^rd down conversions, and 123^rd in net punting.   Their defense has to be good because the offense goes nowhere and the punter gives the opposition good field position.  Meanwhile, the Silver Bullets have moved up to 12^th against the rush, and 9^th in Pass efficiency defense.  So, J.T. and the offense should get the ball often and Jalin Marshall’s returns should put the ball near midfield or better.

If Cardale was at the helm, then it would be Minnesota, part 2.   While I like Cardale, clearly he’s not the same guy as he was last December/January.  J.T. will be back and as good as Illinois’ defense is, you can run on them.  Iowa went off for 278, North Carolina for 254, and Nebraska for 187.   What’s more is Illinois has yet to face a QB that can run like Barrett.  Only UNC was close and their QB rushed only 9 times but for 106 yards.   Every other QB Illinois has faced has been more of a pocket passer.   Barrett carrying 18 or more times on Saturday will be an eye opener for them.

Since a huge upset in November 2007 (I can’t recall who they beat) Illinois is 1-20 v. ranked teams.  They are 1-4 S/U as a dog in 2015 and 2-3 ATS.   The line opened at 17 but is now down to 16.  I don’t know why.  Maybe it is the speculation about whether Barrett will start.  If Jones was starting, I’d take the points.  But I fully expect J.T. to play the entire 60 minutes and he and Zeke will run wild, much like Braxton and Carlos did.   Our defense should shut down the offense similar to what PSU did to Illinois (27 rushes for 37 yards, and 17-44-130 yards passing).  I don’t even care what the weather will be like.  Give the points and bet the over of 55.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 49, Illinois 14.

Minnesota

So, I’m not ashamed to admit that this is the first thing I think of when we play Minnesota.  In case you were wondering, this is the second.  Or maybe it is this.

Where was I?

Oh, yes. Minnesota.   I think this game will be decided by each team’s 2015 FEI Rating for Field Position.  Ohio State is No. 1 and Minnesota is No. 109.  Full disclaimer – I have no idea what this statistic means but I am under the impression that being first is good and being 109^th is bad.  So we got that going for us.

For some reason, we rarely play Minnesota.  The first meeting was in 1921.  In 94 years, this will be only the 52^nd meeting between the schools and the first in Columbus since 2009.  Ohio State is a strong 44-7 against the Gophers, with nearly identical records home (22-3) and away (22-4).   Even more impressive is that the Buckeyes have won 37 of the last 39 matchups (losing in 2000 at home and 1981 in Minneapolis).

Minnesota’s offense is not very good statistically.  I was under the impression that Gopher games moved along quickly because they are low scoring affairs with an emphasis on running.  But Minnesota’s offense frequently stalls and they have punted 50 times in 8 games (compared to 34 for Ohio State).  So, their average length of games has been 3:22, meaning this one ain’t getting over until probably 11:30 p.m.

Despite J.T.’s suspension, Vegas has the Buckeyes as a 23 point favorite, with the o/u at 53.5.  The Gophers are 0-1 ATS this year as a Road Dog (v. 2-0 ATS as a Home Dog).  Minnesota is 10-8 ATS in B1G road games in the Jerry Kill era, but a more impressive 7-2 in their last 9.  As noted above, there have been no trips to the Shoe during that span.  Historically, Minnesota has not fared well in Columbus going 1-3 ATS in their last 4 trips.

My initial reaction is that with Cardale back at the helm, our offense will stagnate against a good defense.  However, I think Jones will be playing with a chip on his shoulder and have something to prove.  I think our offensive line will revert to the last 3 games of 2014 and play at a higher level for Cardale.   Also, Minnesota is coming off a very emotional game last week v. Michigan and I think it will be difficult for them to sustain that emotion.  So, I think I’m giving the points and taking the under, both by the narrowest of margins.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Minnesota 13.