Minnesota

So, I’m not ashamed to admit that this is the first thing I think of when we play Minnesota.  In case you were wondering, this is the second.  Or maybe it is this.

Where was I?

Oh, yes. Minnesota.   I think this game will be decided by each team’s 2015 FEI Rating for Field Position.  Ohio State is No. 1 and Minnesota is No. 109.  Full disclaimer – I have no idea what this statistic means but I am under the impression that being first is good and being 109^th is bad.  So we got that going for us.

For some reason, we rarely play Minnesota.  The first meeting was in 1921.  In 94 years, this will be only the 52^nd meeting between the schools and the first in Columbus since 2009.  Ohio State is a strong 44-7 against the Gophers, with nearly identical records home (22-3) and away (22-4).   Even more impressive is that the Buckeyes have won 37 of the last 39 matchups (losing in 2000 at home and 1981 in Minneapolis).

Minnesota’s offense is not very good statistically.  I was under the impression that Gopher games moved along quickly because they are low scoring affairs with an emphasis on running.  But Minnesota’s offense frequently stalls and they have punted 50 times in 8 games (compared to 34 for Ohio State).  So, their average length of games has been 3:22, meaning this one ain’t getting over until probably 11:30 p.m.

Despite J.T.’s suspension, Vegas has the Buckeyes as a 23 point favorite, with the o/u at 53.5.  The Gophers are 0-1 ATS this year as a Road Dog (v. 2-0 ATS as a Home Dog).  Minnesota is 10-8 ATS in B1G road games in the Jerry Kill era, but a more impressive 7-2 in their last 9.  As noted above, there have been no trips to the Shoe during that span.  Historically, Minnesota has not fared well in Columbus going 1-3 ATS in their last 4 trips.

My initial reaction is that with Cardale back at the helm, our offense will stagnate against a good defense.  However, I think Jones will be playing with a chip on his shoulder and have something to prove.  I think our offensive line will revert to the last 3 games of 2014 and play at a higher level for Cardale.   Also, Minnesota is coming off a very emotional game last week v. Michigan and I think it will be difficult for them to sustain that emotion.  So, I think I’m giving the points and taking the under, both by the narrowest of margins.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Minnesota 13.