Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Illinois

Last week we had to deal with “Ski-U-Mah.”   This week it’s “Os-kee-Wow-Wow.”   Apparently, unlike Ohio, marijuana initiatives did pass in the Big Ten West.

Champaign-Urbana in November sounds like an inhospitable place.  Although I haven’t been there, I’ve been close, and my memory is that it is flat, windy, and about 10 degrees colder than the thermometer says.  Not bad enough that you’ll need one of these, but still mighty chilly.  And yet, despite these drawbacks, the Buckeyes love to play at Memorial Stadium.

Ohio State has won 10 consecutive games at Illinois.   The Illini’s last 6 wins in the series have all come in Columbus (but sometimes losing a shoe is not the same as losing in the Shoe).  Their last win at home was 1991, a true B1G contest that ended 10-7. (Further nostalgia:  OSU featured QB Kent Graham, RBs Carlos Snow & Butler By’not’e, while Illinois had coach John Mackovic, QB John Verduzco, and RB Kameno Bell).  Those of us who are “older” remember the headaches Illinois and HC Mike White caused in the 1980s, but I was surprised to find out that Earle Bruce was 7-2 against them.  It was John Cooper (aka G—D---- Cooper) who was only 8-6 v. Illinois (so it wasn’t only scUM that he could not defeat).  The Senator was 5-2 against the Illini but many of the games were too close for comfort. 

Urban Meyer so far is 3 for 3 with an average score of 56-24.  But that was against Tim Beckman who isn’t coaching anymore simply because he “employed a wide array of motivational tactics that violated sports medicine standards and protocols.”  So, he (allegedly) called kids with concussions too “scared” to play and (allegedly) threatened to remove your scholarship if you went to a trainer for evaluation and treatment. So, he (allegedly) physically and (allegedly) verbally abused players.  Is that too high a price to pay for going 12-25 overall and 4-20 in the Big Ten in return?  Where are your priorities Illinois?   #sarcasm

Anyway, former Western Michigan HC Bill Cubit has taken over and the result is that the Illinois defense has dramatically improved.  The Illini have improved 70 or more places in the rankings for Rushing defense, Total defense, Scoring defense, 3rd down defense, 1st downs allowed, Pass efficiency defense, and interceptions.  Yes, you read that right – over 70 places.   They have gone from giving up 456 yards/game to 342, and giving up 34 ppg to 21.7.    Their offense?   Not so much.   Illinois is 98th in Rushing Offense, 108th in Pass Efficiency Offense, 97th in 3rd down conversions, and 123rd in net punting.   Their defense has to be good because the offense goes nowhere and the punter gives the opposition good field position.  Meanwhile, the Silver Bullets have moved up to 12th against the rush, and 9th in Pass efficiency defense.  So, J.T. and the offense should get the ball often and Jalin Marshall’s returns should put the ball near midfield or better.

If Cardale was at the helm, then it would be Minnesota, part 2.   While I like Cardale, clearly he’s not the same guy as he was last December/January.  J.T. will be back and as good as Illinois’ defense is, you can run on them.  Iowa went off for 278, North Carolina for 254, and Nebraska for 187.   What’s more is Illinois has yet to face a QB that can run like Barrett.  Only UNC was close and their QB rushed only 9 times but for 106 yards.   Every other QB Illinois has faced has been more of a pocket passer.   Barrett carrying 18 or more times on Saturday will be an eye opener for them.

Since a huge upset in November 2007 (I can’t recall who they beat) Illinois is 1-20 v. ranked teams.  They are 1-4 S/U as a dog in 2015 and 2-3 ATS.   The line opened at 17 but is now down to 16.  I don’t know why.  Maybe it is the speculation about whether Barrett will start.  If Jones was starting, I’d take the points.  But I fully expect J.T. to play the entire 60 minutes and he and Zeke will run wild, much like Braxton and Carlos did.   Our defense should shut down the offense similar to what PSU did to Illinois (27 rushes for 37 yards, and 17-44-130 yards passing).  I don’t even care what the weather will be like.  Give the points and bet the over of 55.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 49, Illinois 14.

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