Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Michigan

After Saturday, this was my first reaction.

But then, I met this kid and I knew I needed to get my act together and fast.

Sure, our chances at defending our National Championship in the CFP have gone from 90% to 10%, but how often do you win a NC anyway?  We’ve played for 4 in the past 14 years.  That’s not too shabby.  Sure it hurts when you lose the NC game or fall just short, but you get over it.   You don’t get over a loss to the Maize and Blue.   You. Just. Don’t.

And so, while I thought about mailing it in this week and giving you a 2 sentence (“I don’t know. I don’t care.”) preview – like the marines at Guantanamo, that little crying kid wants me on that wall.  He needs me on that wall.

Going to Ann Arbor is not as intimidating as it used to be.  The Buckeyes have won 5 of the last 7 in Michigan Stadium.   Sure, Brady Hoke beat us his first year at UM, but he beat a team that was 6-5 and run by an interim coach.   In 2007, after Ohio State blew an undefeated season losing to Illinois in the Shoe, the Buckeyes went up to Ann Arbor and beat a nationally ranked, Lloyd Carr led Michigan team, 14-3.   Even Earle Bruce was 3-2 in Ann Arbor against Bo.  Home field does not matter much here.

One stat that is troubling is that 6 of the last 7 UM coaches have won the Game their first time out (only Rich Rod in 2008 failed to do so).   But even though this is a rivalry game, the higher ranked team has gone 14-4, with one of those losses being when the teams were ranked #5 and #4.   And if you excuse an 0-5 stretch during the Cooper years, the higher ranked team was 14-6 in the 20 previous matches.  As I type, I don’t know where the CFP Committee will rank the two teams, but using the AP and Coaches as a guide, Ohio State should be around No. 8 and Michigan around No. 12.

Early in the season, Michigan’s defense was the hot thing.  But that squad has given up 126 points in their last 5 (MSU, Minn, Rutgers, Indiana, and PSU).  Meanwhile, the Silver Bullets have given up 132 points in their last 9 games.  (Disclosure – if you add up Michigan’s last 9 games you get 133 points against.  That’s pretty even).  Michigan hasn’t played many QBs who like to run, but when they have, they’ve given up over 100+ yards.  And it isn’t that the QB burns them, it appears to be the threat of the run that can turn into more yards for the RB (witness Indiana RB Jordan Howard going off for 238 yards).

This is not your typical Wolverine team on offense.  Much like Sparty, they lack a big time, give me the ball RB.  De’Veon Smith is a very good player, but overall Michigan is 81st in rushing offense.  They managed only 62 yards rushing v. MSU and 87 v. PSU.  QB Jake Rudock certainly will not beat you with his legs.  Harbaugh will look to pound the ball to get to 3rd and 5, then Rudock will complete a pass to TE Jake Butt, or WR Amara Darboh.   They will get the first down and keep the clock moving.   Michigan is No. 2 nationally in Time of Possession.  They will want to shorten the game and keep our O off the field, much like MSU did.

Obviously, the big question for Buckeye fans is whether this team (including coaching staff) will implode after last week’s fiasco, or bond together and come out better.  There’s still something to play for too.  I just cannot see this team turning against itself and falling apart.  The defense will be fine - it’s whether the offense can gel.   They proved against Penn State and Rutgers that they can, so I have more than hope.  The weather should be better this Saturday, and this team has ALWAYS played better on the road than at home.  Want proof – Ohio State is 48-4 under Meyer; 27-2 in Columbus, 4-2 in neutral site games, 17-0 in true road games.

This is Ohio State – Michigan.   You don’t need extra motivation, but here is some:  Ohio State went from being a virtual lock in the CFP to a 1.5 dog (over/under is 45).  Meyer and the Buckeyes are 6-0 S/U and 6-0 ATS as an underdog.  Redemption will arrive at 3:25 p.m. in Ann Arbor, Michigan.  Then, we will root for Penn State, but don’t expect a miracle.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 28, Michigan 20.

No comments: