Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Michigan State

“The only constant in life is change.”  - Heraclitus of Ephesus (535 BC – 475 BC).  Or, maybe not.  I wasn’t around back then so maybe he didn’t say that.  But someone did.  Sometime.  I think.

This is the last game in the Shoe for Seniors LT Taylor Decker, C Jacoby Boren, RT Chase Farris, HB Braxton Miller, TE Nick Vannett, DT Adolphus Washington, DT Tommy Schutt, DT Joel Hale, and LB Joshua Perry.  It’s also likely the last home game for QB Cardale Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Michael Thomas, DE Joey Bosa, LB Darron Lee, S Vonn Bell, and S Tyvis Powell.   That’s enough to make for some strange sounds Saturday.   But we had this changing of the guard in 1970, 1976, 1981, 1995, 2003, and in 2006 (just to mention a few years that huge classes left) and we will have it again.   So, let’s raise a glass or bottle to these 9 seniors (there may be others) and these 7 underclassmen and say “Thank you for being a Buckeye.  We loved having you here.”

Okay, finally, after ten long weeks. Seriously, after Va. Tech, this game has been coming for sooooo long many Buckeye fans are like this guy.  But the Ohio State “preseason” is over.   Our “real” season officially begins Saturday.  Hopefully, it will be 5 games long.

Call me crazy, but I almost wish this game was in East Lansing.  In the last 35 years, the Buckeyes are 11-2 at Spartan Stadium winning by an average of 18 ppg, with some pretty big blowouts (wins by 38, 32, 31 and 24). Contrast that to our 8-3 record at home with the average winning margin being only 10 points.  Since 1979, Sparty has not lost by more than 14 points in Columbus, so I take notice. [You may want to read that again].  Maybe it’s because they are a team “fighting with a vim!” (They should change one of the lines to “Fight, Fight, Go Green White” but I digress).  MSU won in their last visit to Columbus, 10-7, but the Spartans have not won in back-to-back trips to the Shoe since 1951 & 1953. 

As much as people talk about how Ohio State has struggled, MSU has done the same.  2-7 ATS as a favorite with close wins over Purdue, Rutgers, and a miracle finish over TTUN.  Depending on your point of view, you could say lady luck ran out in Lincoln, or they got hosed by a terrible call.  Either way, this is not the Spartans we are used to seeing.  Right now, MSU is 92nd in rushing offense.  Their leading rusher, L.J. Scott, has 519 yards.  What in the name of Lorenzo White is going on up there?  And their normally stout defense?  Sparty is 11th in the B1G in passing yards allowed. Long time DC Pat Narduzzi left the East Lansing sidelines/press box to take over the HC position at Pitt and MSU may be missing him.  Of course, they gave up 49 to us and 41 to Baylor in 2014, so maybe there were cracks in the foundation then that are more apparent now.

Fortunately for them, they have QB Connor Cook whose gaudy 32-4 record as a starter rivals Urban Meyer’s 48-3 record as Buckeye HC.   The key question is “how is Cook’s shoulder?”  He sat out the 2nd half v. Maryland as a precaution (and because, well, it was Maryland) and he says he’ll play.  But how effective will he be?   Will he look like Connor Cook or maybe more like the November 2015 version of Peyton Manning? One well-timed hit from Bosa or Washington could dramatically alter the course of this game.

As for the Buckeye offense, with RT Chase Farris securing long-term employment as a revolving door at the Polaris Mall after his playing career is over, will we be able to mount any passing attack to hit Sparty where they are (statistically) weak?  MSU has a good pass rush, but when we line up with a TE on Farris’ right and one behind him even Dantonio might think a pass is coming.  Maybe our gameplan will be to allow DE Calhoun & Co. to run upfield without opposition and hit them with a screen or draw or flat pass.  Either way, Barrett is going to have to watch his right flank.  Zeke should get his 100 but it will be tougher to come by.

I am flabbergasted that the Vegas line opened up at 13 and has now increased to 13.5.   The Sharps must know that Cook’s shoulder is not close to 100% as that is the only explanation that makes sense.  MSU is a big game team.  With Cook, they are 4-1 v. Top 10 and 7-3 v. Top 25.  Add to that their history in Columbus, I would expect the line to be closer to 5.   Game time weather promises to be a wonderful 43 degrees with rain.   Even if Cook cannot throw or is severely limited, this promises to be a close, lower scoring affair.

I think the Buckeyes win.  I do think you ought to excuse small children from the room and remove all fragile items in the surrounding area.   It’ll be squeaky bum time throughout the 4th quarter and most of us will age more than we need to.  But in the end, OSU will survive and advance.  I’d take MSU with the points and bet the under (53).

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 28, Michigan State 25.


P.S.  You didn’t think for a minute that I would leave out my favorite video, did you?  Here’s your daily moment of zen, courtesy of John L.  Serenity now

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