NCAA Football Playoff

I wrote this in early December. Since then, I have reconsidered my position based upon the article written by Dan Wetzel at Yahoosports.com.

He makes some very good points and started to win me over. But first, the anti-playoff post:

I happen to be anti-playoff. The majority seems to be under the impression that a playoff will determine the “best” team. A tournament does not. It determines which team is playing well during the tournament, otherwise all No. 1 seeds would make the final four. NCState (83) and Villanova (84) were not the “best” teams, they just got hot at the right time.

Eight is unrealistic because if you take the top eight, you take non-division winners Georgia and Kansas over a conference champ. If you take conference champs, there have been years where the Big East or ACC winner was 7-4, and Tennessee could win the SEC at 9-3. The only method that makes sense is 16 and play in December. Get down to 4 and play January 1 and the championship one week later.

Still, I am anti-playoff because there are too few games played and bias of the voters plays a role. With 12 games you cannot lose twice and be the “best team.” Yet LSU is ranked ahead of one loss Kansas in one poll. In college basketball, you have a better sense of who is good because they play 35 games. We may debate whether an 11 loss team gets into March Madness, but there’s no expectation that they’ll win it all. In an 8 team football tournament, you only have to win 3 games, so who gets in matters more.

Another reason I’m anti-playoff is society’s compulsion to crown a “true” champion. You play the game to win, but you also play for your future, because you love the game, and to make money for your university. Bowl games pay for numerous other sports that are not revenue producers. Bowl games are needed because of Title IX. And what is wrong with going 7-5 and getting to go to Hawaii or Florida for a bowl game? A winning season should be considered a successful season. The standard for success should not be that you have to go 11-1 and make the playoff. Institute a playoff, and the guys at Arizona State who are experiencing their first winning season in years go nowhere.

The polls are imperfect, the conferences and schedules unequal, and all of it makes for great debate and a meaningful regular season. Keep it and live with it.

Illinois

Illinois runs. When they don't run, they run. They are 6th in the nation at 261.30/game, and Rashard Mendenhall is No. 8 in the nation at 135 yds/game. No other RB rushes the ball. The No. 2 guy on the team is the QB Juice Williams at 65 yds/game. The Illini are 113th in the nation in passing offense, so if we get up on them early, they'll still run the ball to get back into it. When they rush 38+ times, they win. When they run less than 35 times/game, they lose. They have the fastest WR in the Big Ten in Frosh Arrelious Benn, but he only gets the ball 5 times a game and has scored 1 offensive TD. Illinois is DEAD LAST in Passing Efficiency in the Big Ten. Not surprising, given the lack of effort to throw, Illinois in No. 9 in the nation in sacks allowed.

The Illini defense is very solid v. the run (22nd) and in scoring (21st). But that being said, teams have called a lot of running plays against Illinois (36.5 times per game). That stat is only marginally inflated by the two teams (Iowa and scUM) that have beaten Illinois - but the other 8 they have played averaged 34 rushes/game. You can pass against them (81st nationally) so expect Boeckman to get his yards. The OSU o-line will have to do another great job at protection because Illinois is 10th in the nation in sacks. They don't have one guy doing it all (ala Penn State) but a bunch of people get into the act.

With the disparity in stats, my guess is that people run on first down and get 2 yards, throw for 7 on second down, and then run for 2 yards on 3rd down v. Illinois. Field position will be in Ohio State's favor because Illinois is 96th in the nation in punting (10th in the Big Ten), and they are not exceptional in the return game. Turnover-wise, Illinois will fumble at least twice (giving at least one away) and will throw one pick per game.

Ohio State is 8-2 S/U but only 4-6 ATS in the last 10 v. Illinois. Looking only at the 5 games in the 'Shoe, OSU is 3-2 S/U and ATS. The trouble with looking at past games with Illinois is that some years they were awful, and the year or two that they were good, OSU was mediocre. Illinois beat OSU 46-20 in Columbus in 1999 which was Cooper's 6-6 campaign, and they won 34-22 in 2001, which was Tressel's first year. In 2005, 12th ranked OSU beat 2-6 Illinois by a 40-2 score. In 1997, No. 4 OSU beat a winless Illinois team 41-6. No. 2 OSU beat a .500 Illinois team in 1995, 41-3.

Illinois is 3-10 in November games since 2003. After they beat OSU in 2001, they went 0-19 v. ranked teams until they beat PSU and Wisc this year (and then lost to scUM). So they are 2-20 v. ranked teams since 2001. They are also 3-15 v. the No. 1 ranked team (BCS & AP) all-time, and the last 6 times they faced No. 1, it was OSU, and the Buckeyes won all 6. The Buckeyes are actually 8-1 v. Illinois when Ohio State is ranked No. 1 (the only Illini win came in 1950 in Champaign). The last time Illinois beat a Top 5 team on the road? 1989 (def. No. 5 USC).

Tressel is 5-1 in his final home game of the year, the only loss being in Year 1, 2001, v. the 12th ranked Illini. That Illinois team was better than our Bellasari-led one. Tressel will not permit this team to blow its 18 game home win streak, its 20 game Big Ten unbeaten streak, and its 10-0 start to this Illini squad. The line is either 14.5 or 15. No Over/Under is set yet, but will probably be about 45. I'd take the Buckeyes and the Over, as OSU's offense is clicking. If OSU wins the toss, expect OSU to take the ball (not defer) and try to score on their opening possession for the 11th straight game. They will, and will eventually get ahead by 17 or more. At some point, time will be against the Illini and they will have to abandon the run. Some 3 and outs, short punts, or better yet, some of the Illini's guaranteed turnovers, and OSU cruises into the showdown with Michigan next week.

MTB says: Ohio State 35, Illinois 17

Wisconsin

Okay, I give up. This season is too unpredictable, as are the Buckeyes. After Penn State, I am now convinced our offense is much better than I had thought. But, I am wondering if our defense is as good as we once thought. Vegas has been wrong - to some extent - on the Buckeyes as well. Example 1 - 19 point favorite v. MSU, 24-17 final. But then again, it was 24-0 and we were driving to what look liked another score when the offense caved in. Example 2 - 4 point favorite v. PSU. But then again, it was 17-7 when Joe Pa chickened out on a 4th and 2 from the OSU 41 in the 3rd quarter. PSU punts, OSU drives 90 yards and then Morelli is forced to pass.

The line this week is Buckeyes by 16. Sixteen? Versus 7-2 Wisconsin? The same Wisky team that has won its last 3 visits (and 4 out of 6) to the 'Shoe?

Wisconsin - like PSU - is a jekyll and hyde team. 6-0 at home. 1-2 on the road. They want to pound the ball up the middle until you cry "uncle." They average 200 on the ground and 200 through the air per game. In all 7 of their wins, they rushed the ball at least 44 times per game. In both of their losses, they rushed under 35. In their 7 wins, they rushed for at least 190 yards, and in their 2 losses, less than 135. Also, in their 2 losses they threw the ball more than 30 times which they do not do when they win. This could be understandable if both of their losses were blowouts, but one was very close , at Illinois 26-31 (three weeks ago Wisky went into Happy Valley and got spanked 38-7).

Their defense is mediocre giving up 141 yards on the ground and 193 through the air. They are - 3 in turnover margin on the year, and they are 76th in net punting. Their D line is nothing to speak of getting some sacks but few tackles for loss. Their big O-line ranks 68th in sacks allowed.

Wisconsin's offense is in trouble this week as workhorse P.J. Hill hurt his ankle last week and is questionable. His backup won't be making the trip due to disciplinary reasons. This means they will probably rely upon QB Tyler Donovan to throw a lot against the Buckeyes' No. 1 pass defense.

Wisconsin is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 road games. The road team in this series is 6-2 ATS in the last 8. But, that was a healthy Wisconsin team. Ohio State is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games. Wisconsin is also 3-14 lifetime v. teams ranked No. 1, including losses to No. 1 Ohio State in 1964, 1969, 1973, 1974 and 1975.

57 and sunny for Noon on Saturday. Injured Badger team. Ohio State team gelling on offense back in the comfortable confines of the Shoe. MTB will try again and predict a push: Ohio State 29, Wisconsin 13

Penn State

Been a little off the last two weeks, but I think I have this game pegged. Pucker-up Buckeye fans, and I don't mean your lips.

Penn State is a Jekyll and Hyde team. Away, they are 1-2 and getting outscored 65-72. At home, though, they are 5-0 and outscoring their opponents by a margin of 200-48. Now before we get too excited, the only team with a pulse that came to Happy Valley was Wisconsin. The other victims were Fla. Int'l (0-7), Notre Dame (1-7), Buffalo (3-5), and Iowa (3-5). The Lions did paste the Badgers by a score of 34-7, which either speaks to how bad the Badgers really are, or how good Penn State is at home.

There is also the annoying stat that OSU is 2-5 at Penn State since the Lions joined the Big Ten (1993). Tressel is 1-2. There are some mitigating factors. A closer look reveals that in 3 of those 5 losses, Penn State was ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in the nation - not so this year. One of Tressel's losses came in his first year at OSU (2001) with a marginal team. The 2005 loss came after a bye week, and we all know how Tressel does with a week off in mid-season (0-3).

When the games are at Happy Valley, the team that is favored is 5-2 straight up, but only 3-4 ATS. If you throw in games played at the 'Shoe, the favored team is

11-1 straight up (the teams have split 2 games in which neither was ranked). This week, Ohio State is favored by 4, and is higher ranked.

Statistically, these teams are mirror-images of each other. Average rushing yards, passing yards, total yards and scoring on offense are nearly identical. On defense, Penn State is No. 2 in the Big Ten in Rush D, Pass D, Total D and Scoring D (we all know who is No. 1). Penn State is No. 1 in the Nation in Sacks, and No. 5 nationally in Tackles for Loss. They are also better than OSU in Punting (2 v. 14). Turnover margin is equal.

Pundits on ESPN are saying that they key to this game is QB Anthony Morelli. I disagree. The Silver Bullets will shut him down. The key is Todd Boeckman. He will likely not be able to take 7 step drops and wait for Robiskie to go deep or for someone to get open over the middle. Slow developing plays will lead to sacks. Sacks (or pressure) lead to turnovers. (Turnovers lead to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering, and suffering leads to the dark side - but I digress). Penn State loves "traditional" offenses. They ate up ND and Wisconsin. They had more trouble with Buffalo (45-24) and Indiana (36-31), both who run spreads. Lining up with 1-2 TE and running Beanie between the tackles plays to PSU's strength. OSU needs to go 4 and 5 wide at times and have Boeckman in the shotgun or taking only 3 step drops. That will cool the heels of the D-line and get the LBs back peddling. Then we can hit them with Beanie up the middle and Saine around the edges. (Michigan and Illinois both rushed for more than 160 yards against the PSU defense, so it can be done). Boeckman cannot throw picks (recall that Troy Smith's INT deep in OSU territory was the difference in the 2005 game). PSU's offense is not a threat as they like to rush 50 times per game keeping it out of Morelli's hands, mainly because he's more than capable of finding wide-open Buckeyes.

I hope I am wrong (again). I hope the Buckeyes offense is clicking and gets a comfortable lead early and wins by 20. But I don't think so. I think you better plan to stay up late. MTB says: Ohio State 16, Penn State 13 (in OT).

Gibberish

Please do not be concerned for my well-being. This is only a test:

watermelon, buddha, severus snape, lactose intolerance.

Michigan State

Ah, the Spartans. Always an entertaining game. In 1993, my buddy and I watched the Buckeyes kick 5 FGs to win 28-21. Something happened in 1998, but at that time I lived in Arizona and did not see that game. In 2004, freshman Ted Ginn, Jr. scored 3 TDs, including a 57 yard slant pass with 2 minutes remaining. And in 2005, Ashton Youboty made a HUGE play that I believe turned the Buckeyes' season around, and led to this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvrRvUYRdD8

The Sparties are No. 1 in the Big Ten in Total Offense (467.00/game) and Scoring Offense (36.86/game). They are No. 9 nationally in rushing offense (242.71) giving the ball nearly 20 times a game to Javon Ringer (136 yards/game) and the big ball Caulcrick (73 yards/game). And they are not one dimensional, as Brian Hoyer passes for more yards per game than Boeckman does.

Defensively, the Spartans are No. 2 nationally in Sacks (4.14/game) and No. 3 nationally in Tackles for loss (9.43/game). That's better than us. Now, as you know, in College, sacks (and TFLs) count against a team's rushing yards. Yet, despite their lofty rankings, MSU still gives up over 100 yards per game on the ground. So, you can run on them as both Pitt and Wisconsin rushed for 250+ yards against them. Their pass defense is suspect (68th at 231.14/game) as Northwestern through for 520 yards, Bowling Green for 300, and Wisconsin for 250. And despite throwing on virtually every down, Northwestern was only sacked once in that game. (The Sparties only got to Wisky's QB 2x, so they have loaded up their sack totals against UAB, BG, ND and Indiana).

Fortunately, their strength plays to our strength. If you haven't been paying attention, the Buckeyes are 2nd in Rush D (62.86), 2nd in Pass D (149.00), 1st in Total D (211.86) and 1st in Scoring D (6.57). While MSU can run and pass, they cannot protect their QB as they rank 83rd in Sacks allowed. They can't punt well either, ranking 105th in net punting.

The line is currently OSU by 17.5 (the over/under is 51.5). Maybe it's just me but the spread strikes me as high and my knee-jerk reaction is to take Sparty and the points. After all, in the last 5 games in the Shoe between the two the average score has been OSU 30, MSU 21. But further research reveals that MSU is 2-6 ATS (against the spread) v. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 12-4 ATS v. teams with winning records, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Vegas must know something.

I think MSU's offense will be the best we've seen to date and they will move the ball on occasion. However, we will get some key sacks and their weak punting will give us shorter fields to play on. Mark Dantonio is no John L. Smith, and MSU will be a bear to play in 1-2 years, but they won't get us this year.

MTB says: Ohio State 41-17

Purdue Retrospective

I heard some commentators say that the Bucks win over Purdue was a statement game. Nearly shutting out one of the highest powered offenses and winning easily on the road at night puts the Buckeyes near the top teams.

I got home from a wedding just in time to see us go up 17-0. The part that I saw ended up having us being outscored 6-7. The defense - obviously - was outstanding. But I have never been so frustrated at the Bucks as I was watching this win.

1. Did Boeckman ever plant his feet on his throws? They always seemed to be moving or he was throwing off his back foot.

2. Why the obsession with the deep ball? I can understand establishing it early, but after you get up 14-0, or 17-0, why limit yourself to only that option? I saw one screen pass to Roy Small, one slant to Brian Hartline and one deep in to Robiskie (that he had to climb the ladder to get). The slant to Hartline went for 30+ yards. Why not try another? Instead we get "telegraphed" (per Herbie), floating, underthrown deep balls. I don't know if it was Tressel or Boeckman, but could we throw different routes?

3. Boeckman's progression reading seems painfully slow. There were 2-3 sacks where Boeckman held the ball - presumably waiting for Robiskie to get open 35 yards downfield - while Purdue came at him with pressure. On one 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1, the TE was wide open on a 3 yard crossing route - and was standing right in front of Boeckman! Where's the comprehension that if the defense is bringing extra guys, go to the TE or RB dump off?

4. I understand Mo Wells is the change of pace back, and most times when he is in there the package of plays for him call for no FB. But when Beanie nicks his ankle, we have the lead, we can't throw (because we only throw deep INTs) how about putting in a FB to block for Wells? Mo can get 6 or 7 yards sometimes without a FB, but the rest of the time it's going to be 1 or 2 yards, especially when Purdue knows we are going to run.

The offense cost the D the shut out and if I was on the D I'd be pissed. I'm still not sold on our offense and I don't think we are a top ten team, let alone No. 3.

Kent State

Kent State. Nothing stirs up the juices like another MAC game. Look, I hope I'm wrong because a buddy is going to the game - but I think this is going to be a snoozer. Kent State is No. 11 in rushing. They can't pass, they can't protect the QB and they can't score. But they can run the ball. On defense, they can stop the pass, mainly because people run against them to the tune of 150 yards per game.

Noon start against a non-conference opponent on the Big Ten Network, after an 8 p.m. start on the road v. an undefeated conference foe. This game has "let-down" written all over it. Add the fact that Beanie is banged up (and wouldn't you rest him here?) so that means we'll get a heavy dose of Mo Wells and Saine - good but not the same. Our defense will shut them down, and our offense will manage some points. But I'd take Kent plus the 30.5 points.

MTB says: Ohio State 31, Kent 7

Purdue

A night game in the Big Ten v. a ranked opponent. Should you be scared? Yes, Tressel's Big Ten night game record is only 4-3 which should be cause for concern. However, upon further review he's 0-3 at night coming off a bye, and he's 4-0 at night coming off a win. Last I checked, OSU played last week.

Why is Purdue 5-0 and only ranked No. 23? Take a look at their schedule. If you thought Ohio State's was the softest, then you were sadly mistaken. Purdue has defeated Toledo (currently 1-4), 1-AA Eastern Illinois (3-2), Central Michigan (2-3), Minnesota (1-4) and Notre Dame (0-5). That's a combined 7-18. By comparison, the Buckeyes' opponents are 11-14.

Offensively, the teams are not that far apart. Purdue has the total offense edge 495 to 423, with the Buckeyes having better balance (209 rush, 214 pass) v. Purdue (186 rush, 309 pass). Purdue also scores 10 more points per game (45.4 to 35.8). Looking at the individuals, they also have similar stats. Chris "Beanie" Wells averages 19 - 111 - 1 (rush/yds/TD) and Purdue's Kory Sheets averages 18 - 106 - 1. Brian Robiskie has a per game avg. of 5 - 106 -1 (rec/yds/TD) and Purdue's Dorien Bryant comes in at 8 - 90 - 1. The offensive lines have each given up 4 sacks total all year.

The difference is in the defense. Now, both teams have played similar schedules - 1-2 MAC teams, a 1-AA team, and Minnesota - but the stats are not similar. Ohio State is in the top ten in all defensive categories: No. 4 Rush Defense (55 yds/game); No. 6 Pass Defense (142.6); No. 2 in Total Defense (197.6) and No. 3 in Scoring Defense (7.2 points/game). Meanwhile, Purdue is No. 44 in Rush D (127.4); No. 92 in Pass D (257); No. 68 in Total D (384.4); and No. 38 in Scoring D (20.4). The Buckeyes also have 4 more sacks and 10 more tackles for loss than the Boilermakers. Turnovers are roughly equal.

So Purdue either let their opponents get lots of yardage during garbage time, or their defense is not that strong. I think it's the latter. Toledo, Central and Minnesota weren't running the ball when they were trailing, so Purdue must be soft against the run. Their rush defense actually dropped 20 yards a game after playing ND last week. And ND's QBs (whoever they play now) threw for nearly 400 yards v. the Boilermakers. The same QBs who stand behind a sieve for an offensive line (which is why the Irish cannot run) and who had been sacked 7 times per game going into Purdue were only sacked twice. Purdue does not seem to put much pressure on the QB in addition to not stopping the run.

So, the statistics favor Boeckman having time to throw and Wells being able to run. Which one Tressel will use first to open up the other remains to be seen.

But West Lafayette is no picnic. Purdue is 2-1 v. Ohio State the Buckeyes last two trips to Ross-Ade Stadium. Purdue beat us 24-17 in 2004 (when Troy Smith fumbled at the 10). In 2000, Drew Brees threw a bomb with 2 minutes to go to beat us 31-27. In 2002, Ohio State won comfortably 10-6 (the "Holy Buckeye" game). Then again, Ohio State is 2-1 v. Purdue (Tiller era) when both are ranked. Purdue is 0-1 at home at night under Tiller and 1-3 at night under Tiller all-time. Purdue is also 0-3 as a home dog to a ranked opponent since 2002. And I got these beauties from Purdue's own site: When both Purdue and the opponent are ranked, Purdue is 20-39-3; when Purdue's opponent is ranked No. 4 in the nation, Purdue is 2-14.

I think the Buckeyes are gelling. And rolling. I think this game will be a lot like Iowa was last year - a lot of emotion early, but the Buckeye machine will steadily grind Purdue down. The spread is 7 which seems large, which means Vegas knows something. MTB says: Ohio State 33, Purdue 17

Northwestern

48-7, 20-0, 38-20, 49-6, 51-3, 31-7 and 48-7. That's the result of the Wildcats last 7 trips to the 'Shoe (1990 - 2005). That's an average score of 40-7. The only thing more certain than an OSU win over N'western in Columbus is an OSU win over Minnesota in Minnesota.

Tyrell Sutton from Akron is the motor that makes the Wildcat offense run. If he's not playing, N'western is capable of losing to the likes of Duke - oh, look who beat them last week! Duke. Sutton is injured and may not play on Saturday. If he doesn't play it won't matter which Ohio State team shows up - the Buckeyes will win, and the should cover the spread (currently - 22.5). If Sutton does play, he'll make it closer, but not by much.

Northwestern's offense has comparable stats to Ohio State's, but that's not the Wildcats' problem. Their defense has been bending against the likes of Duke, Northeastern and Nevada (370 yards/game allowed) but not breaking (only 17 pts/game against). The only reason they've been able to keep the points down is because they were playing Duke, Northeastern and Nevada. The Wildcat D does not put any pressure on the QB (110th in sacks), does not even get in the backfield (76th in tackles for loss) and does not create many turnovers (+1 in three games). If the Buckeyes bear any resemblance to the 2nd half team that played Washington, they better put new lights in the scoreboard.

Northwestern's offense runs the spread, and I think we've already seen that against Akron (but I don't know for sure because I could not see the game!) I think Washington ran a version of the spread, so I'm not worried about our defense handling that system (unlike Michigan's).

The weather should be great. The only thing to fear is that we have a let down after a relatively "big" game last week. I don't think the team is that good to be that cocky, and I'm sure Tres will remind them of that. So, take OSU and give the 22.5 points.

Ohio State 45-10.

Washington

Man, this is a problem. Almost all of the stats seem to favor the Buckeyes, but I have this bad feeling about this game. I had the same bad feeling v. Florida, but used the stats to talk myself out of it. I don't know that I can do that this time.

First, the stats. Ohio State is 13-3 in its last 16 non-conference road games. Our last lost was 2001 at UCLA (6-13) in Tressel's first year, when we were a 6.5 point underdog. Ohio State is No. 1 in Total Defense, (13) in Rushing Defense, (3) in Pass Defense, and (5) in Scoring Defense. Ohio State is also 3rd in the nation in net punting.

Washington is led by a freshman QB and coming off 3 straight losing seasons. While OSU beat Youngstown State and Akron, Washington pummeled an equally weak Syracuse team, before beating nationally ranked Boise State in Seattle last week. Neither Syracuse nor Boise State is as big or physical as the Buckeyes, so this should be something new for the Huskies. I was able to see some of Washington v. Boise State, and while the boys on the Huskies O-Line are very large, they look fat and slow. Their WRs dropped more passes that I could count, and the QB and RB messed up on 2-3 plays in where they were supposed to go.

So, while this game shapes up to be a 20-7 Buckeye win, I can't shake the feeling that this will be a loss. First, I look at turnovers. Ohio State is 110th in the nation at - 5, Washington is 17th and + 3. Next, is the 3-hour time change and the travel to get out to Seattle. Also, I think our offense lacks leadership. I don't think Boeckman, Wells, Robiskie or anyone else takes charge in the huddle and demands perfection. And why can't we seem to run the ball? We are 48th in rushing, but I think that is due to Wells' two huge runs late in the game v. Akron. Washington's run defense is solid, as solid as the Buckeyes (18th v. 13th nationally). You can beat them through the air as their secondary is weak, but you've got to get the pass off first. Their D-line is wicked fast and were in the Boise State backfield often. They have more sacks and tackles for loss than we do. My problem is that I don't have the confidence that Boeckman will be able to read/feel the pressure in time and get the pass off.

I have this fear that Washington may do what it did against the Broncos, which is get outgained, but make one big play on offense and have their defense cause turnovers to make the field shorter and score more points. This QB - Jake Locker - is big and mobile. Kind of like Elway (who beat us in 1982) and Vince Young (who beat us in 2005). I think he's a natural leader who could will his team to victory. I think if they get ahead we will have a very difficult time trying to catch up. So for the first time ever, I predict an OSU loss.

MTB says - take the home team and the 4 points, you won't need them. Washington by 4, 27-23.

Akron

It is not so much a question of what Akron presents, as it is a question of how much Ohio State will improve from last week. Akron beat Army last week 22-13, but had a 74 yard INT return for a TD, and used a 70 yard kick return to set up a FG. They do have a WR who is 6'4" 225 that we should keep an eye on. But I don't think they can do much damage, unless we let them.

No, the issue is whether Ohio State will show improvement which acts as a springboard to a potentially great season, or struggles which foreshadows a long, difficult year. Think back to 2002 - after a nice win v. Texas Tech, OSU came out and crushed Kent State 51-17. We went on to go 14-0. The next year with everyone but Clarett back, we followed up a good win v. Washington with a 16-13 squeaker against San Diego State. While we went 10-2 that year, we were not impressive against anyone and struggled all year with no running game. In 2004, we cruised past Cincinnati in the opener, but then needed Nuge's 54-yard FG as time expired to beat Marshall. That showed that our No. 9 ranking was way too high and 4 weeks later we were out of the polls.

Last I checked the spread was 29 and at first I thought that was too low. But OSU under Tressel is not good when huge favorites over non-conference opponents. OSU is 3-5 ATS v. non-conference opponents when favored by 20+. Tressel is also 3-4 ATS v. the MAC. I thought this could be a 45-16 game which puts the game as a push, but I think I'm giving our new offense too much credit. Also, T-storms are predicted to hit during the first half, so weather will play a factor. I think I'd take the Zips and the points.

MTB says:

Akron 3 0 7 6 - 16
OSU 10 7 7 10 - 34

Youngstown State

There is no line on this game, likely due to YSU's status as a FCS member (formerly D-1AA) instead of a FBS member (formerly D-1A). Same goes for scUM v. Applachian State. If a line was to be set, 35-38 would probably be the ballpark.

YSU has played a D-1A/FBS school in 4 of the past 6 years. The results have not been good:

2001 - lost at Marshall, 24-38

2003 - lost at Kent State, 13-16

2005 - lost at Pittsburgh, 0-41

2006 - lost at Penn State, 3-37

When Tressel was there, YSU was 13-13-1 v. D-1 schools, but all games were against the MAC.

When Penn State pounded YSU last year, the Nittany Lions had 389 yards rushing. YSU gave up more that 200 yards on the ground often, including over 300 yards to Applachian State in the Championship game. They also gave up nearly 200 yards passing per game in 2006. In short, they were a very porous defense. What made them successful is they had a great RB. Marcus Mason averaged 155 yards per game, and the Penguins rushed for 223 yards/game in 2006. Alas, Mason graduated, errr used up his eligibility, as did their no. 2 back. Their top WR is also gone. Lots of new skilled position starters versus the Silver Bullets. That's not good for them. You will see someone familiar though, as their starting TE is Louis Irizarry. You may remember him from a few years ago when he committed to go to Ohio State, then backed out and committed to go to Miami, Fla., only to renege on that and actually enroll at OSU. He played for the Buckeyes as a freshman in 2003, before being kicked off the squad. He'll have Senior QB Tom Zetts throwing to him. Zetts' average game last year was 12-21 for 149 yards. Not exactly someone who lights it up, but then again he has more experience than Todd Boeckman.

I think you will hear (not see) Tressel exploit the sieve-like YSU defense with a steady diet of Wells, Wells and Saine. Boeckman will sound like Craig Krenzel and be asked to manage the game, not win it. Probably will end up with stats similar to Zetts' 2006 average. Don't be surprised if the Buckeyes have 50+ rushes and more than 300 yards on the ground. With all of the running plays, the game will go by faster and Ohio State will not burn out any lights on the scoreboard. Of all the schools that we could play, Tressel does not want to run it up on YSU, but rather wants a "respectable" score. If there was a line, I would say take YSU and the points.

MTB says:

YSU 0 0 0 7 - 7

OSU 7 14 14 3 - 38

The Rise of "Atheism"

On Townhall.com, radio talk show host Dennis Prager wonders why "Atheism" books (as he calls them) top the best sellers list. I am not sure whether these books are truly "atheistic", which seems to be the default description given by religious conservatives to anything that does not meet their criteria for proper belief in Jesus. Nevertheless, I provided him my three reasons why such books are popular:

1. Natural curiosity. The internet has made more information available to more people, causing many to question what they've been taught as children. Before the world wide web, we had little alternative but to accept what we were taught by our parents, our teachers, our churches. Now, we can take what they say and research it, or find a different point of view.

2. The actions of fundamentalists, both Islamic and Christian. By demanding that they both are correct in their view, and if you do not agree with them you are excluded, causes people to wonder if the truth lies somewhere in between. I'm reminded of a quote from Gandhi: "I like your Christ. I do not like your Christians. They seem nothing like your Christ."

3. A natural cycle. As with most everything in life, religious beliefs ebb and flow. 10-15 years from now, he may be writing an article about how Godly America has become.

New Conventional Wisdom for the Derby

I'm back. It took a long time to get back on this horse after the BCS debacle, but I'm back.

And speaking of horses, let's turn to one of my favorite things each year, The Kentucky Derby.

The "old" conventional wisdom said you could pick the winner prior to the race following a number of factors. They were:

1. A top 3 finish the last time out;
2. Not the favorite;
3. Only 3 or 4 races as a 3-year-old (i.e. since January 1);
4. Had to have won a race at age 2;
5. Had to win at age 2 at a race with the length of 1 mile or more;
6. An experienced jockey; and
7. Not a gelding (a castrated horse).

In the 80's and 90's, with the advent of the Breeders' Cup races, another factor was added in that the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race was jinxed and would not win at Churchill Downs in May.

But in this decade, that old conventional wisdom was not only discarded, it was destroyed. In 2003, Funny Cide became the first gelding to win since 1929's Clyde Van Dusen. In 2004, Smarty Jones was the favorite and won easily. He was also ridden by a rookie jockey. In 2005, Giacomo, who had finished 4th his last time out, stunned everyone by winning at the wire. And finally last year, Barbaro won despite a long layoff, i.e. not having raced in more than 4 weeks (sort of an unofficial requirement).

So, scrap that old conventional wisdom, it is time for the new. I have reviewed the last 4 winners and determined what they had in common and have created a list for the new criteria for selecting this year's winner.

1. Posted a bullet in their last workout. Between races, horses workout at the track running varying distances, and those times are posted for everyone to see. The horse who ran the fastest at that specific distance that day is said to have posted a "bullet." Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Giacomo and Barbaro all posted bullets in their final workouts a few days prior to the Derby. This shows that the horse is in prime racing shape.

2. A win or a top 3 finish with a heavy weight. In the Derby, all horses carry 126 pounds (yes, that includes the jockey). Weights are added to the saddlebag to achieve this result. In prep races, however, horses will carry different weights based upon their ability, with the most typically being 123 pounds. This means the Derby will be the heaviest race for them and some horses do not do well with the extra weight. Three of the past four Derby winners won a prep race carrying 122 lbs., while Giacomo had a 3rd place finish.

3. A win at 1 1/16 miles or more. The Derby will be the first time any of these horses have gone 1 1/4 miles. The extra distance often cripples a horse's chances. Again, 3 of the 4 past Derby winners won a race at 1 1/8 miles, while Giacomo won at 1 1/16th miles.

4. Performed well in double digit fields. The Derby can have a maximum of 20 horses in the race and typically has at least 18. In other words, it is a huge field with lots of traffic and lots of distractions. If a horse has performed well in races with 10 or more entries, chances are he will perform better at Churchill Downs. Last year, all of Barbaro's races had between 11-13 horses, so he was used to the traffic. Funny Cide and Smarty Jones also won races with 11 and 12 horses. Giacomo did not have any such wins, but did have a top 4 showing in a large field.

5. Performed well on different tracks. Churchill Downs has a reputation of causing fabulous horses to perform poorly on Derby day. Often, the trainer will say that his horse "just did not like the track." Barbaro and Smarty Jones both had won prep races on dry tracks and sloppy or muddy tracks. Funny Cide and Giacomo had a win and a second. This shows that these horses can perform well no matter what the track surface is like, thus increasing the chances that the Churchill Downs track will not affect them.

6. Have a prep race speed figure of 100 or more. Stephen Beyer, a writer for the Washington Post, developed his own set of speed figures to compare horses in different races on different tracks. His figures have been adopted and used throughout horse racing. Derby winners usually have a prep race in which Beyer has assigned them 100 or better based upon their performance. Again, Barbaro, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones all met this requirement. Giacomo did not, as his best pre-Derby figure was 98 (you can get the speed figures from the Daily Racing Form's "Past Performances" which are free online).

In looking at the 2007, only Dominican, Tiago, Hard Spun, and Liquidity posted a bullet in their last workout prior to the Derby. Of those, Liquidity has performed miserably when given 122 lbs. (4th, 6th and 9th). Tiago has not raced on any surface other than "dry and fast." And Dominican's best speed figure in a prep race is a 95. Hard Spun, on the other hand, meets all the requirements and is your Derby winner. By the way, Hard Spun did not win a race of 1 mile or more at age 2, so he would fit the current trend of bucking the "old" conventional wisdom.

Note - Street Sense met all the new CW requirements until Tuesday, May 1, when his trainer decided to work him out again. Although he was fast, he did not post a bullet. But if he wins, he would continue the string of breaking the old CW as he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race last November, and may well be the favorite at post time.

Second Note - Afleet Alex met all the requirements in 2005 but somehow lost to Giacomo. I also noted that in 2002 (War Emblem), 1999 (Charismatic), 1996 (Grindstone) and 1993 (Sea Hero), horses not expected to place in the top 3 won it all. Therefore, I have concluded that 2008's race will defy any conventional wisdom, but that is not the case this year.

BCS - Florida

Sorry I have been delinquent with this. Truthfully, I have not been that excited about the BCS game. Maybe it is because the Michigan game was SO HUGE. Maybe it is because it Ohio State last played 6 or 7 months ago. Maybe it is because the fairly recent 2003 win over Miami scratched the national championship itch that had lingered so long. Maybe it is because Florida isn't as sexy as some other teams.

Regardless, my head was out of it until Saturday afternoon. That is when I heard Saving Jane's version of "Hang On Sloopy" on the radio. It snapped me out of my fog. Add to that the fact that I'm sitting at work listening to a radio replay of the Michigan game, and I can safely state that: I. Am. Back.

Unlike most OSU games, you have been provided the offensive and defensive stats, so I had to look for new angles to give you. I have four:

1. Troy Smith. This is the most obvious. Troy Smith is this year's Vince Young, only the new and improved version with the Heisman Trophy. He is a leader. He wills his team to victory. Florida has some talented players, but I don't think they have a leader like Troy. His "story" will not end with a defeat. That would cause a rip in the time-space continuum. It would violate all natural laws. It will not happen.

2. Jim Tressel - what more can this guy do to add to his legend? He has had 50 days to scheme and plan. He's got his team in Arizona (again) where they are so used to the scene that it is like Columbus-west. Urban Meyer - very good. Jim Tressel - great.

3. Offense - Ohio State can score, Florida has great difficulty doing so. In 11 of Ohio State's 24 halves this year, the Buckeyes scored 20 or more points. Florida did in only 6 times out of 26 halves. Only 4 times the Bucks scored 10 or less in a half, Florida did so 10 times. Florida's season looks like this - score 14 in the first half, 7 in the second, and win 21-14. The Buckeyes' season looks like this - score 24 in the first, 14 in the second, win 38-10.

Now don't give me this SEC is great and Big Ten is overrated crap either. Both teams played 4 ranked teams, but only OSU played someone in the top 5 (No. 2 twice). Florida played 10 bowl teams, but Ohio State played 7. Florida got to play lowly Central Florida and 1-AA Western Carolina, and Penn State and Wisconsin have both beaten SEC teams in bowls this year.

4. White jerseys - Now, this is the one that gave me the most concern, because I figured we were wearing our home scarlet due to our No. 1 ranking. But during media day all of the Buckeyes were wearing white. A big relief to me.

2003 Fiesta v. Miami - white. 2004 Fiesta v. Kansas State - white. 2006 Fiesta v. ND - white. I think I did a study of this a year or two ago about how we have much more success in bowls wearing white v. scarlet. I can't imagine we wore white to media day and then will switch to scarlet, so this is a great relief to me.

Prediction - Most, if not all of the scoring, will occur in the first half. Both teams will make adjustments and the second half will become a field position battle. Florida will score on their first or second possession, as do most OSU opponents. The Buckeyes will strike repeatedly in the second quarter. Florida may score in the 2nd half, but will not have the fire power to overtake the Bucks. If they get close, Smith will drive the Buckeyes to an insurance score and remove all doubt. Pay no mind to those saying that this is 2003 v. Miami with the roles reversed. Not true. We are not Miami. Chris Leak is not Craig Krenzel. Plus, no one gave us a chance. All this talk about an upset is just to keep you interested.

MTB says:

Florida 7 0 0 7 - 14
Ohio State 3 17 0 7 - 27