Cincinnati

In last week's episode, the National media said "Ohio State rolls to an easy victory."  Meanwhile, Buckeye fans said otherwise.

My two cents, if the 1st quarter and 2nd quarter were reversed, most Ohio State fans would be fine. Also, if you were a concerned fan club member, we were up 35-6 at the end of 3 on the team favored to win their conference. After they scored, we answered with another TD.  Then they scored on our 2nd team defense and we would have answered again with another TD (and made the score 49-21 which would have been eerily close to my prediction of 59-21, but I digress) but for a holding call that caused us to kick a FG.  Where was I again?  Oh, we did fine.  We will be fine.  

This week, the Binturongs of Cincinnati pay a visit, or as I like to call them, the "drunk uncles" of Ohio (00:29 of video link if you are wondering about the reference).  This game was almost canceled when Luke Fickell left OSU to become UC's head coach.  I guess the fact that Fickell played at OSU in the 90s, coached there for 15 years, and was interim head coach in 2011, plus the fact that Meyer is a graduate of UC and had Fickell on his staff for 5 years made it all too weird.  While they agreed to cancel it, they never did anything about it.  So, here it is.

Like FAU, UC is a favorite to win the American Athletic Conference.  They are good - and if you don't believe me, ask State College, PA's Matt Brown who thinks so.  In case you are not so sure, let me edumacate you some. Last year, the Bearcats were 11-2 including a bowl win over Virginia Tech.  They only lost 16 lettermen and return 14 starters from that squad. That includes Sophomore QB Desmond Ridder (No. 8) who threw 20 TDs and only 5 INTs as a Freshman, oh, and he also ran for 800 yards.  That includes RB Michael Warren (3), who ran for 1,329 yards.  So they have some potent skill position people on offense.   And did I mention they have the best defense in the AAC?  This ain't you mother's Cincinnati Bearcats rolling up I-71 into the Shoe.  This is a team coming to win.

Now, since this is the 2nd game at home for Ohio State, I am obligated by contract to reference our 2nd home game woes.  I know, I know, you've heard this every year for as long as I have been invading your Inbox.  But, it is a disturbing trend that needs to be mentioned.

Let's go back and look at 2003-2017 and see what has happened in some of the Week 2 matchups:

Year    Opponent            Spread   Final      S/U    ATS

2003 - San Diego State (-30.5)   16-13       W       L

2004 - Marshall              (-16.5)   24-21       W       L

2005 - Texas                  (- 1.5)     22-25      L         L

2006 - at Texas              (+ 3)        24-7         W       W

2007 - Akron                   (-29)      20-2        W        L

2008 - Ohio University   (-33.5)    26-14      W        L

2009 - Southern Cal      (+ 7)        15-18       L        W

2010 - Miami, Fla.          (- 8)       36-24       W       W

2011 - Toledo                  (-18)      27-22       W       L

2012 - UCF                    (-18)       31-16       W       L

2013 - San Diego State   (- 28)     42-7         W       W

2014 - Virginia Tech       (-11.5)    21-35        L        L

2015 - Hawai'i                 (-41)      38 - 0       W      L

2016 - Tulsa                    (-28)      48- 3        W      W

2017 - Oklahoma            (- 7)        16-31       L        L

One of those wins came on the road as a dog. Ohio State, under Tressel, Fickell, and Meyer was 11-4 Straight up and 5-10 ATS.  Just let that sink in for a moment.  Go ahead, look back on that "murderers' row" of opponents we faced too.  The average spread in those 12 games was 20.5. 

But John, you say, Ryan Day broke that jinx last year against Rutgers.  True, Ohio State was favored by 35.5 and covered by beating the Scarlet Knights 52-3, thanks in large part to Nick Bosa breaking their QB.

So, maybe Ohio State has kicked its "second week of the season blues."  But there is another trend you should know about and it is today's "Word of the Day" - 

You see, even though Ryan Day's 2018 performance covered, it was still under the total Vegas set. And when you add 2018 to the other games in which Ohio State has opened with 2 in a row at the Horseshoe, you find that the Under is 12-6-2.   Then, you look at UC under Fickell when he takes his Bearcats on the road and you discover that the Under is 9-2-1.   So, 21-8-3 combined, makes me believe that this will be a lower scoring affair than even Vegas suggests.

The Vegas line opened at Ohio State -16.5 and is now down to 16.   The over/under is currently 53.5.  That's UM and MSU game type range, not the usual 60+ we have to deal with.  UC has a solid defense and we are working out a new QB and OL.  Our defense is better and should limit the damage their skill players can do.  And, it's the proverbial 2nd game.  I think it's a tense, lower-scoring affair.   And I think it is close (w/in 7-10) until late in the game.  I'd bet the under, and instinct tells me to take UC and the points, but I'm often wrong.  But how can you bet the under AND give so many points?  Well, like this:

Schaef says:

Cincinnati 17

Ohio State 34