Indiana

Apologies, but this will likely be shorter and less entertaining than usual as I am in the middle of an appellate brief that is using most of my available bandwidth.  Speaking of the law, did you know that I was accepted to, and seriously considered attending, Indiana University School of Law?  That means, in an alternative universe, there is a version of me that is really conflicted this week.

Had I attended, I would have been able to visit Pawnee and Hawkins.  Ok, maybe just Pawnee then.

You've heard the stats - Indiana has not beaten Ohio State since 1988, when they whooped us 41-7 in Bloomington.  (Which was not the "darkest day" in Buckeye football, per Earle Bruce.  That was in 1987 when IU won in Columbus 31-10.  That was darker because Earle was still the coach in '87). Since then, Ohio State is 25-0-1 (there was a 27-27 tie in 1990).

And when I think of Ohio State visiting Bloomington, I think of near misses.  The 52-49 win in Urban's first year, the 34-27 escape in 2015, and 2017's opener that was very scary for the first 30 minutes.  However, over the course of time, not only is OSU 11-0-1 S/U at Indiana, they are 9-3 ATS, winning by an average score of 35-18.  The Over is 2x as likely as the Under in this game as well.

So, the Buckeyes win by an average of 17 points.  The average spread over this time is Ohio State by 16.  The line this week?  Ohio State by 18, with an O/U of 60.

Indiana may play two QBs Saturday, Redshirt Freshman Michael Penix (a lefty who originally committed to Tennessee - bet he's happy he didn't) and Peyton Ramsey, who has started 16 games over the past 2 years.  They will have to be sharp because IU doesn't have much of a running game so far this year (ranked 94th in the nation). They do have 3 receivers and a TE that have more than 100 yards receiving so our secondary will get tested.  However, I like our new defense to not give up any big plays and to slow IU's offense way down.

IU's defense is better this year, but I know what Justin Fields is thinking. 

If I were a betting man, and I am, I think I would stay away from the point spread this weekend. I like the Under this week as I think 60 may be too high.   But since I make no promises or warranties, I willl make a prediction that you should take the Buckeyes and give the 18.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Indiana 14.

Bonus - UNC is 2-0 ("Mack is Back") and, get this, travels to Winston-Salem tonight to take on fellow ACC member Wake Forest - in a NON-CONFERENCE game!  That's right. UNC and Wake are in different divisions and rarely play each other so they decided to use a non-conference spot to play.  Imagine Ohio State meeting Minnesota in a game that doesn't count in the B1G standings.  Anyway, 105-year-old Mack Brown has made magic in UNC's first 2 games with comeback wins over South Carolina (SEC!) and Miami-Florida.  Wake is 2-0 and giving UNC 3 points.  While I love what Brown is doing, UNC is still young, has no depth, and had a short week to prepare against a good team.  I'd take Wake and give the 3 as they will beat the Heels, 27-20.