Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Florida Atlantic


With all due respect to Brent Mustangburger I am soooo happy that Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt are covering the first game.  I believe that Klatt is the No. 1 analyst in the game and I am pretty sure that the Buckeyes are undefeated when Gus Johnson calls the play-by-play.  And his enthusiasm to me makes the game more special. (In all honesty, there are about a dozen calls I could have picked for that link - I'm just lazy that this TD pass was the first one I found).

Speaking of entertaining personalities, how about FAU coach Lane Kiffin?  Sure, he was a train wreck of a coach with the Oakland Raiders, then went to Tennessee and publicly accused Urban Meyer of cheating, jilted Tennessee after one year (right in the heart of recruiting season) to jump to USC, where he bombed again and got pulled off the team bus to be fired, AND who tries to pick up women in bars under the alias of "Joey Freshwater."  I mean, who among us hasn't done one or all of these things?  Good times. Good times.

Anyway, turns out the dude, in addition to making us all chuckle, maybe can coach.  He arrived at FAU in 2017 inheriting a team that had finished 3-9 in three consecutive seasons, and finished the season 11-3.  Last season was a bit of a disappointment, finishing 5-7, but 3 of those losses were by 3 points or less.  Could have easily been 8-4.  And the "calvary" is coming in the form of former Florida State QB Deondre Francois and former Alabama RB B.J. Emmons transferring to Boca Raton. So he's getting some good talent to come play for him.

Kiffin was the Offensive Coordinator at Alabama for a few seasons (including 2014 when the Buckeyes beat them in the Sugar Bowl), and his 2 years at FAU have demonstrated that his teams can score. In addition to the two transfers noted above, the Owls have the best OL in Conference USA and a talented group of receivers.  Watch out for TE Harrison Bryant (40) on Saturday.

Unfortunately, on the defensive side of the ball, FAU is a whole lot of "meh." In 2017, they gave up 390 yards per game and nearly 23 points per game.  In 2018, those numbers got worse - 425 yards and 32 points per game.  The returning "talent" doesn't give reason to hope for much improvement.

While they are predicted to win Conference USA this year, their recent contests outside the conference have not been met with rave reviews.  Last year, the Owls went to Norman and lost to Oklahoma 63-14.  In Kiffin's first year, Navy beat them 42-19 and Wisconsin delivered a 31-14 defeat.  In fact, FAU has lost their last 8 road openers and their last 23 games against "Power 5" foes by an average of 42-10.  Oof!

When the Buckeyes open the season against a non-conference opponent at home, good things happen.  And when I say "good things, I mean lots of points and covering the spread.  For example, 2018-Ohio State 77, Oregon State 31 (line: Ohio St by 39.5); 2016-Ohio State 77, Bowling Green 10 (line: Ohio St by 27.5); and 2012-Ohio State 56, Miami 10 (Ohio St by 25.5). Much there to like.

But, what about the new QB?  The new OL?  The new Defensive coaches and last year's sketchy defense?  "Bah humbug," I say.  Fields is going to be fine.  He's talented and he doesn't have to win the game - just manage it.  J.K. Dobbins may get 25-30 carries and 200 yards in this one.  FAU is not going to stop him and the OL is good enough to open holes.  The running game is going to allow Fields to be sure on his throws, and our WR group is wickedly-talented and FAU's secondary is no match.   As for our defense, I think the coaching and the scheming will make last year's players better.  Way better.

Vegas is not so sure, labeling the Buckeyes as 27.5 favorites with an over/under of 64.  As my good friend George Santayana used to tell me, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."  Vegas seems to forget the "first home game of the season v. non-conference opponent" history for the Buckeyes.  I hope Gus and Joel have plenty of fill material for the second half because they gonna need it. 

Schaef Says give the points and bet the Over: 

Florida Atlantic     7      7     0     7   - 21
Ohio State            7    21   21   10   - 59


Double bonus - the first one I remember.

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