B1G Championship Game v. Michigan State

We are in unfamiliar waters here.  As fans, we haven’t had to deal with Championship Week.  Fortunately, we have a coach that has gone through this a few times in the SEC and knows the deal.

This is what I know about MSU – their defense is a beast.  No one can run on them.  No one can pass on them.  No one can score on them.  Their offense doesn’t need to do much when the opposition is not scoring (indeed, MSU’s offense is 10^th in B1G in total yards and 11^th in passing).    And we all know that defense wins championships.   You can win a championship with an ok offense, but you usually don’t win a championship with just an ok defense.   Even Urban’s Florida teams that are remembered for their offense had much better defenses.   And given how our defense can make average offenses look great, prospects for this Saturday look bleak.  But they don’t play the game on paper.

MSU has not faced anyone like us this year.  Indiana had some offensive firepower, but by the time Sparty faced off against Nebraska and Northwestern, those programs were injured and in shambles.   The non-conference schedule of Western Michigan, South Florida, Youngstown State, and Notre Dame did not prepare MSU for a team that can spread the field, pound the run, and have a QB that can scramble.  Conversely, Ohio State has faced someone similar to State.   When the Buckeyes played Wisconsin in September, the Badgers were 6^th in rushing and total defense and 10^th in scoring defense.    The Buckeyes ran for nearly 200 yards, passed for 200 more, and scored 31 points.

My concern going into this game was that MSU would stuff the run, and when Braxton went back to pass he would be sacked.  We would see OSU in 2^nd and long or 3^rd and long.   But I learned that the Spartans are not really a defense that gets a lot of sacks or TFL.  Actually, the Buckeyes have better numbers.   I glean from this that Michigan State simply stones you at the line of scrimmage.  I imagine they rush only four and their DBs must do an admirable job of covering the opposition’s receivers.  Blitzing would/should result in more sacks and TFL.   I would expect a mobile QB to have a lot of runs against MSU since his receivers are covered.

But I don’t see that.   Indiana’s Tre Robinson rushed 5 times v. MSU.  Illinois’ Nathan Scheelhaase ran 6x.  Northwestern played passer Siemian much more than runner Colter against MSU and had 6 total rushes.  Nebraska’s Armstrong ran 6 times too.  Why aren’t the QBs running against Sparty?  I think this is where the difference will come on Saturday night.   Braxton will run the ball 20x, as will Carlos Hyde.   MSU hasn’t seen this before and it will be a challenge.

Many of you may scoff at the historical numbers, but I find them fascinating.  In the last 35 games between these two teams (dating back to the 1967 game), Michigan State has score less than 20 points 25 times.  That’s 71% of the games!   Sure Ohio State had some really good defenses in some of those years, but in other years (2004, 2011, e.g.) we stunk.  The maximum points the Buckeyes have given up to State is 28 (1998).  Let me repeat for emphasis – in the last 35 matchups, MSU has never scored 30 points on any Ohio State team.  Meanwhile, MSU, which has long been known for its strong defense (George Perles, Nick Saban, Mark Dantonio), has surrendered 30+ points to the Buckeyes in 6 of the last 12.   Coach Dantonio is 8-18 v. the Top 25 (1-1 this year) and 1-4 v. Top 5 teams.  Ohio State has a 9-2 advantage when both teams are ranked, including two wins in East Lansing in the last 5 seasons.   

I think the Buckeyes will get their defensive issues ironed out so that MSU will once again score less than 30.  I think the Buckeye offense will present significant problems to the Spartans, and I look for Braxton Miller to run a lot.   We are indoors so there is no issue with weather.  And looking at this globally, I think an Ohio State win will upset many of the talking heads on certain networks, so I think it happens.   I am giving the points (5.5) and I’m taking the over (51.5).

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Michigan State 22. 

Michigan

First of all, since The Game has been moved to Thanksgiving weekend, let me give thanks to each of you who take the time to read these missives.  I am also thankful that I attended The Ohio State University, that Urban Meyer accepted the offer to coach in Columbus, that the players – especially Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, Ryan Shazier, and our OL & DL signed to play for the Buckeyes, and I am thankful that the University of Michigan exists so that we could have the best rivalry in all of sports.

Now to the game at hand. . .

Several years ago, ABC’s Keith Jackson opened up the broadcast of an Ohio State-Michigan game by stating that in big rivalry games the difference was “turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.”   At first blush, he could be correct.   Vegas has Ohio State as a 14-point favorite and Michigan is struggling.   It is logical to conclude that the only way the Buckeyes can lose (and the Wolverines can win) is if Ohio State gifts the ball over to Michigan.   Maybe that would work in most years, but I don’t think it will for the 2013 version of Michigan football.  You see, Brady Hoke’s team was +2  in turnovers v. Nebraska and still lost 13-17, and +3 v. Iowa and still lost 21-24.   That’s astounding.  (As an aside, Ohio State was -3 v. Indiana and still won by 28).

Michigan’s offense is struggling.  Or rather, Michigan’s offensive line is struggling, which in turn has cause their running game and QB Devin Gardner to struggle.  Granted, the weather last week in Iowa was bad, but UM’s offense had 10 drives which were 5 plays or less then punt.  8/10 were 3 and out.  One TD was a 7-yd INT return, and the other TDs came on short drives of 28 yards and 47 yards.   Again, last week’s weather was atypical.  But looking back at the Nebraska game at home two weeks earlier, you see similar stats.  9 of 11 drives were 5 plays or less and resulted in punts or turnover on downs.   One drive went 3 yards in 4 plays and resulted in a FG.  Michigan’s offense currently lacks the ability to put together two first downs together, let alone a long drive and march down the field.  Thus, field position will matter a great deal.

And the reasons for the Wolverines’ offense’s problems show up in the team’s stats.  Michigan is dead last in Tackles for Loss Allowed at 9.36/game.   They are 110^th in Sacks allowed at 2.91.   The math is fairly easy to understand – Michigan has run 701 offensive plays in 11 games, for 63.7/game.   12.27 of those plays are going backwards, or 1 in every 5.  Hard to do anything on offense with that ratio.  Compare that to Ohio State who have run 807 plays (73.4/game), and only 4.91 go backward (1 of every 15).

I have not seen much of Michigan play, but I am scared of Jeremy Gallon.  I could see him having an “Abberderis-type” day against Bradley Roby.   Michigan’s defense is also nothing to sneeze at.   Our running game will face its toughest test since Wisconsin.   And of course, the weather should be poor, but not awful.   The forecast right now calls for partly sunny skies, high of 36, with winds only at 11 mph.  I would not think that would impact throwing the ball much.

I am not worried about Ohio State overlooking this game and looking ahead to MSU.  This.  Is. Michigan.  And Urban gets that.  No one wants to lose to them no matter what the records are.  I think the team will be very focused.   I think Michigan will be fired up early.  My hope is that by halftime, Ohio State has opened up a 10+ point lead and deflates the Wolverines’ hope of an upset.  Then, we give them a steady diet of Carlos Hyde, and when they have the ball we tee-off on Gardner.    14 seems like a big number to me, especially in a rivalry game.  But I cannot see Michigan scoring more than 18 points given their offensive struggles.  Can Ohio State put up 33?  It’s close, very close, but I’m going conservative:

Schaef says:  Ohio State 31, Michigan 18.   Give the points, take the under (58).  Go Bucks!

Michgian Week - Photos

In preparation for Michigan week, I thought I would share some of my favorite photos from "The Game":

Go Bucks!

Indiana

It’s getting difficult to get fired up for these when for the 3^rd straight game we face a defense that is almost rock bottom in every meaningful statistic category.    So, rather than dissect the 2013 Hoosiers, let me take a different tact.

This is the final home game for a group of Buckeyes that had three head coaches and one losing season.  Yet, they have gone (so far) 40-8.   Again, with one losing season.  They also have 23 consecutive weeks being nationally ranked in the AP Top 10, a 22 game win streak and a 14 game Big Ten win streak.  Not too shabby.

Oh, and most importantly, they are 2-1 v. that team up North with one to play.

So, thank you to our DBs:   C.J. Barnett, Corey “Pitt” Brown, Christian Bryant, and Bradley Roby (as well as Adam Griffin and Jamie Wood);  WRs Corey “Philly” Brown and Chris Fields;  our OL of Marcus Hall, Corey Linsley, Jack Mewhort, and Andrew Norwell (as well as Ivon Blackmon);  the Special teams combo of LS George Makridis and K Drew Basil;  RB Jordan Hall, the “Gunslinger” QB Kenny Guiton, and of course "El Guapo" Carlos Hyde.    Let’s send these guys out with a win.

A win Saturday will break OSU’s record for longest consecutive wins, currently at 22.   We will also clinch the B1G Leaders division and guarantee a spot in the B1G Championship Game on December 7, 2013 at 8:00 p.m. in Indianapolis.

As for the Hoosiers, yes, they have a pretty good offense going in Bloomington.   But they are a different team on the road.  In 2013, Indiana is 0-3 S/U and ATS when away from Memorial Stadium.  In the last 10 years, Indiana is 11-42 on the road.   They have lost their last 20 v. ranked teams, no matter the venue, and haven’t beaten a ranked team on the road since September 11, 2004 (at Oregon – before Oregon was Oregon).

After last week’s uncomfortable win v. Illinois, there is no way the Buckeyes come out flat in this one.   I think Urban will send a message to the defense to do better than Wisconsin, which held Indiana to 3 points last week.   Carlos Hyde needs 50+ yards to get 1,000 and he should have that early in the 2^nd quarter.   I would expect the benches to empty in the 2^nd half to (a) get some lesser known seniors some playing time and (b) stay healthy for UM and MSU in the next 2 weeks. 

The line has moved up to 34.5 which is insane given Indiana’s offensive production this year.  And the O/U is an unbelievable 81.    If this was a warm day in late September or early October, I could see a shootout.   But I think the Buckeyes’ defense wants to atone for last week and I bet Meyer has given them plenty of incentive this week.   I see a lot of running and the time clock moving much faster than last week’s game.   I think OSU wins big, but not big enough to go with the over.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 54, Indiana 13.

Illinois

Honestly, I thought of just reprinting my Purdue preview and redline it substituting “Illini” for “Boilermakers.”    This is not Earle Bruce v. Mike White.   The Buckeyes have won 8 straight in Champaign-Urbana, and Illinois’ defense gives them no shot this year.   The Illini are 115^th in Rushing Defense, 89^th in Passing Defense, 114^th in Total Defense, and 104^th in Scoring Defense.    They are 109^th in 3^rd Down conversions against, allowing opponents to convert third downs 47% of the time.   When you put that defense up against Ohio State’s offense – who by the way is No. 3 nationally converting 3^rd downs at 54% - you have all the ingredients for a great day for the Buckeye offense.

Senior QB Nathan Scheelhaase (2) will make plays.   He will do his best “Johnny Football” impersonation and he’ll have to because his offensive line won’t be able to open any holes for the RBs to go through.  Illinois is 96^th in rushing offense, so Scheelhaase will throw 35 times this game.   Many of his passes will connect because they will be dump offs to RB Josh Ferguson (6), the Illini’s leading receiver.   Scheelhaase’s ability to scramble, throw on the run, or just take it himself, will guarantee that Illinois will score on the Buckeyes.  But it won’t be enough to outscore OSU.

So, if on paper this should be no contest, is there something else to be wary of?   And the answer (if you are one who subscribes to mysterious forces) is “yes.”

Since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing on the road in the regular season from Game No. 10 on out are 99-34-1 S/U but just 57-67-2 ATS.   This means that undefeated teams suffer their first defeat on the road late in the year 33% of the time.   Ok, not a surprising stat.   Now, pair up the undefeated team against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season, and watch the undefeated immediately play down to the level of the opposition, going 6-21 ATS.   Maybe some concern.   Finally, bring the undefeated team into the game coming off a win of 20 or more points (say 56-0) and they have real struggles, going just 3-19 ATS.  Warning!  Warning! (BTW, thanks to Vegasinsider.com for the stats).

Now, if the spread in this game was 7 or 8, maybe I’d be really concerned.   Instead, the line is at 33.5.   The over/under is currently 67.0.   I remain firmly convinced that unless the Buckeyes turn it over deep in their own end 5x, they are going to score 40+ on Illinois.  Without those turnovers, I don’t see Illinois scoring 40 on Ohio State.   20?  Maybe.   Covering the spread?   Probably.   Repeating 2007?  Nope.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 45, Illinois 21.

Purdue

Purdue may be worse than Florida A&M.  There are 123 schools ranked in the FBS categories.  Purdue is 104^th or worse in 6 key categories:  Rushing Offense (119), Total Offense (120), Scoring Offense (119), Scoring Defense (104), 3^rd Down Conversion – offense (112), and 3^rd Down Conversion – defense (111).    They are also 90^th in Passing Offense and 92^nd in Rushing Defense.  They have scored 10 points or less on offense in 4 of their 7 games, and have given up 40+ points on defense in 4 of 7.  The Boilermakers are a bad team.

The line is Ohio State by 32 with an over/under of 56.5.   With Ohio State being 5^th in Scoring Offense at 47.3 ppg, and Purdue at 13.1 ppg, do the spread and O/U seem low to you?

I think so, but then again there is a history with Purdue.   Ross-Ade Stadium is where Buckeye Big Ten dreams usually go to die as we have lost 4 of the last 6 games played there, and we needed “HolyBuckeye” to win one of the two.   Purdue also plays us tough in Columbus as they took us to OT last year as well as in 2003.   No matter where or the record, we don’t seem to match up well with Purdue.

There is also a psychological aspect in play – we got through tough games v. Wisconsin and Northwestern, Iowa was a slugfest, and Penn State was a high energy prime time game.  Now we get a noon start against a team that stinks.  Letdown?

I think not.   I don’t think this team knows how to lay off.   We got too many guys itching to play and play well.  Coach Meyer knows we need convincing victories.  Purdue is very, very young.   If they were a senior-laden team, I would take the points.  But since they are not give the points and take the over.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 52, Purdue 13.  

"Gravity" and "Captain Phillips"

An extremely rare event occurred Saturday where I was able to see two movies in one day.  I would advise anyone reading this to see both as soon as possible.

First was "Captain Phillips" with Tom Hanks.  If you have seen the previews you know the story (or maybe you remember the actual event).  Cargo ship captain gets taken hostage by Somalia pirates.   You probably also know the ending, but much like the true events of "Apollo 13," knowing the ending does not lessen the experience or the tension that builds throughout.  I will admit that I had an emotional moment at the end similar to what Tom Hanks' character goes through, mainly because the director gets you really invested in the characters and the situation, and you have to let all of that go after holding it together for 2 hours and 15 minutes.   To me it was not a "feel good" movie I would see again, because the chief emotion I felt was relief to have survived the stressful ride.  But I am glad I saw it.  I would consider Tom Hanks a serious contender for Best Actor.   While you never forget you are watching Tom, there are parts where he truly blew me away - especially the last scene.

After an hour break it was back to the theater for "Gravity" with Sandra Bullock and George Clooney.  Go. See. This. Movie.  And when you do, see it in 3-D.  It is a visual spectacle worthy of the extra $4 for the glasses.  It doesn't develop the characters like "Captain Phillips" but it doesn't need to - you really only have to focus on Bullock's Mission Specialist and she gives you enough clues to figure out who and what she is. What is truly amazing that "Gravity" is only 91 minutes long but you lose track of time because it never really stops.   It is essentially 3 hours of action compressed into those 90 minutes, and there is no place to stop and catch your breath. However, unlike "Captain Phillips" I would go see "Gravity" again because the stunning visuals add so much to the human drama.

Is Bullock worthy of another Best Actress award?  She should definitely be nominated. (Cate Blanchett's performance in Woody Allen's "Blue Jasmine" is my leader and it will be difficult to top that).   But Bullock literally carries the entire movie.  Indeed, I cannot think of a single scene without her as everything happens to her in almost real time and there really is only one other character who is with her most of the time.

While the day after left me loving both movies equally, "Gravity" is now resonating more with me.  However, I cannot tell if that is because I liked it better, or because I read a NY Post article regarding the actual crew's criticisms of the real Captain Phillips as well as the movie itself.  None of that affects my affinity for Tom Hanks' performance.

Northwestern

I’m not so worried about this one, which should scare me to death.

If we play “our game” we could score 50 points on the Wildcats.  They will score but they won’t be able to score that many.  So, this should be similar to the Cal game but not a nail biter.

Historically, Northwestern just does not match up well with Ohio State.  The Wildcats were 9-4 and a top 25 team in 2008 when we last played them.   The Buckeyes won that matchup 45-10.  Our team that year had a Freshman QB, got blown out at USC, lost at home to Penn State, and squeaked by Ohio, Troy, Purdue and even Minnesota.  We were not dominant by any means, yet we handled the Wildcats with ease.  The years immediately prior (no pun intended) had scores of 58-7, 54-10, and 48-7.   That was playing Tresselball!

That being said, Northwestern did beat us in Evanston at night in 2004.  But that was Randy Walker’s team, not Pat Fitzgerald’s.  And honestly, the 2004 Buckeyes stunk that year.  In 2002 we also played at Northwestern at night, and despite giving them 3 turnovers, we still won 27-15. 

They have a very good offense.  18^th in rushing at 249.5 yds/game.  30^th in total offense at 483.3, and 21^st in scoring at 41.3.   They use a 2 QB system – (2) Kain Colter and (13) Trevor Sieman.  Colter is the read option threat to run, he is averaging 10 carries for 60 yards per game.   He throws short, high percentage passes:  27-35 for 264 yards.   Sieman rarely runs and is completing 67.1% of his passes.   RB (22) Treyvon Green has posted two 100-yard games in four, and is averaging 6.85 yards per carry.  WRs (6) Tony Jones and (14) Christian Jones catch the majority of the passes.   Northwestern is also a team that can move the sticks as they rank 15^th in 3^rd down conversions with a 51.7% rate.

But then, there is the flip side.   The pass defense is their weakest link – ranking 117^th in the nation.  Total defense is 87^th, and scoring defense is 52^nd.   The Wildcat defense is also 95^th in 3^rd down conversion, allowing their opponents to convert 44.1% of their chances.    They do have 4 defensive scores though.

Now if the Northwestern defense had these stats against quality competition that would be one thing.  But the Wildcats have these rankings after games with Cal, Syracuse (who lost to Penn State), Western Michigan, and Maine.    If FCS Maine and Western Michigan’s 115^th ranked offense can post good numbers against Northwestern, what will Braxton Miller and the Buckeyes do?

Some misc. stats to complete the preview – the Buckeyes are 28-1 in the last 29 matchups in the series.   Coach Pat Fitzgerald is 1-8 coming off a bye, and Northwestern is 1-6 S/U in the last 3 seasons as a conference home dog.  This is the third time the Buckeyes have had consecutive prime time games and we won both in 2007 (at Min, at Pur) and 2012 (Neb, at Ind).   Northwestern’s last victory over a top 5 team was a 14-10 defeat of No. 5 Iowa, back on October 3 1959.  Finally, Coach Fitzgerald has yet to beat either Ohio State or Penn State, and while he is 41-18 in August, September and November, he has a losing record in October (12-17).

Northwestern will be fired up.   Their offense will probably score 14 first quarter points, especially with the absence of Christian Bryant.   But I think Ohio State will also score 14 or more.   And as the game goes on, the Buckeye defense (4^th in the nation in 3^rd down conversions) will find a way to stop Northwestern.  Northwestern’s  110^th ranked punter will give the Buckeyes the field position edge.  Meanwhile, after runs by Hyde, Hall, Wilson, and Miller, the green Wildcat DBs (3 new starters) will get torched by Devin Smith and Philly Brown.  Unless the Buckeyes turn the ball over 3-4 times (and Northwestern converts them to scores) I think the Buckeyes win somewhat comfortably.

The line started at 4 on Monday but is up to 7 on Wednesday.  Money flowing to the Buckeyes.  The over/under is currently 59, which is shockingly low.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 47, Northwestern 31.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin.  This says it all.

You know, back when the season started, everyone was talking about next week’s trip to Northwestern being the “trap” game.  “Buckeyes better watch out for the Wildcats.”  Now, it seems (at least to me) that everyone is talking about the Northwestern matchup (with plans for ESPN College Game Day to be there) that this week’s game against Wisky is now the “trap” game.

The Badgers should be 4-0.   They should be No. 11 in the country.  They got jobbed in the desert and now are almost an afterthought.   But look at these stats - Wisconsin is No. 3 in the Nation in Rushing Offense, No. 12 in Total Offense, No. 6 in Rushing Defense,  No. 6 in Total Defense, and No. 10 in Scoring Defense.  Those rankings certainly get my attention.  They only lost 3 starters on offense – one of them being RB Monte Ball – so let’s look to see if they miss him?

So, Sophomore RB Melvin Gordon (25) is leading the nation in rushing with 624 yards, on only 53 carries!  That’s 12 yards every time he gets the ball!   Their starter, Senior RB James White (20), is No. 11 in the nation with 442 yards.  Both those guys have more yards that Jordan Hall, who comes in at No. 13 with 422.  Verdict:  Ball not missed at all.  They did lose 5 starters on defense, but you can see the rankings above, so apparently they filled those holes.  These Badgers look impressive, and thus, I have a bad feeling about this.

Yet, there is something about Wisconsin when we play them.  Even when we suck, things like this happen (c’mon – you knew I would link to this).  Wisconsin is 1-6 v. The Ohio State University in our last 7 match-ups.  They are 4-8-2 v. Ohio State when both teams are ranked, a not impressive 4-15-2 against top 5 teams, and a horrible 15-60-2 against ranked teams.  Granted, they did beat Ohio State twice – once when the Buckeyes were No. 1 (2010) and again when we were No. 3 (2003).  But both of those wins came in Madison and I think that is important.   Wisconsin is 0-4 in their last four Big Ten away night games and 1-7 in their last 8 Big Ten road openers.

Well, you say, they have a new coach so things are different.   Not so much.  First, Coach Gary Anderson (who was Urban Meyer’s DL coach in Utah) is 0-3 v. Top 10, 1-7 v. ranked teams, and 9-18 on the road as a head coach.  Sounds like the Badgers.   Wisconsin won their first two games at home v. UMass (0-4) and Tennessee Tech (FCS).  Sounds like a Barry Alvarez/Brett Bielema schedule to me.  (Speaking of Bielema, I’m so glad he’s gone, but can someone explain how he ended up married to her?)  Ok, where was I . . . ?

So, digging a little deeper, it looks like the Badgers have padded their stats against suspect competition (an accusation that can be made about the Buckeyes as well).  I mean, Arizona State, Purdue, and UMass are all in the bottom 15 of all FBS schools in rushing offense.  I don’t think one game v. Bucky Badger put them there – I think those teams don’t run the ball.   And it shouldn’t be too much of a shocker to you that UMass, Purdue, and even ASU aren’t that great at stopping the run either.  So throw those national rankings out the window because Wisky has not seen any competition like us yet.

But we haven’t seen anyone as tough as them either.  But for all their returning starters, Phil Steele only had 2 Badgers total on his 1^st and 2^nd team Big Ten defenses (compared to 6 for us – the team that was supposed to be gutted on D).  Wisconsin’s secondary is green and I believe susceptible to attack.   As they creep in to stop Carlos Hyde, Jordan Hall, and Dontre Wilson, either Braxton or Kenny will pop one over their heads to Devin Smith.    Wisconsin Sophomore QB Joel Stave is a good one and will get better, but I don’t think he’s quite to the level of Russell Wilson who led the Badgers to 2 late 4^th quarter TDs in 2011.   As for Braxton, I’m not worried about rust.   I think he will be fine, and I think he plays the entire game.

 Vegas started the Buckeyes as 7.5 favorites, but the line has crept down to 7.    More interesting  is that the Over/Under started at 60 and is now down to 54.5.   Apparently Vegas thinks this will be more of a slugfest.    According to Wisconsin’s athletic department, the Badgers broke the Buckeyes’ 19 game win streak in 2003 when it was the longest in the nation.   The Buckeyes currently have the nation’s longest win streak at 16.  But the UW AD also noted that the Badgers haven’t lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct. 10, 2009 when Ohio State beat them 31-13 (a span of 52 games).   It’s time for one of those streaks to end . . .

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 24.

Florida A&M

This will be short.  I think we are playing Florida A&M because we couldn’t find anyone else.   For a few years we had “TBA” slotted here and I think we ran out of time.  The Rattlers were all that was left.   No one is happy about this.  Players want to play big games, not these glorified scrimmages.   Coaches worry about players getting hurt.  Poll watchers will not elevate OSU no matter how bad the score gets.   It’s a lose-lose weekend for most.

Don’t worry, there won’t be any moments like this.   Florida A&M is a bad FCS team.  They are 109^th in total offense . . . among FCS teams!  98^th in 3^rd down conversions, 87^th is scoring offense, and 109^th in fewest penalties committed.   They are compiling these statistics v. SAMFORD (not Stanford).   Let me put it another way – thru three games the Florida A&M offense has rushed for 287 yards . . . as a team!   Jordan Hall has 402 yards by himself!  Their QB has 31 completions TOTAL!  In three games!  Well, 36 if you count the 5 he’s thrown to the other teams.  Guiton has 41 in 2 games.

Vegas set the opening line at 57.   Fifty-freaking-seven?  It has now fallen to 50 and rightly so.   The Buckeyes’ offense may be prolific but we have scored more than 57 points only three times in the past 16+ seasons (2012 – 63 v. Nebraska; 2010 – 73 v. Eastern Michigan;  2007 – 58 v. Northwestern).    Covering 57 points would take you all the way back to the first two weeks of 1996, when the Buckeyes opened with a 70-7 win over Rice followed by a 72-0 whitewash of Pitt.  I think the wiseguys took notice and starting taking the Rattlers and the points, which lowered the spread.    There is still no Over/Under for this game and I don’t think Vegas will set one.

Urban’s plan for this game is probably the following:  start Braxton and the first teamers and get it to 28-0 at the end of the first, and 45-7 at half.   Then play Guiton and second/third teamers in third, then rest Guiton and play 4^th/5^th teamers in fourth quarter.    Just make sure no one gets hurt – not with Wisky and Northwestern coming up.   Get the rust off of Braxton and Carlos Hyde, and keep everyone healthy – even Kenny Guiton.

Last year, the Rattlers went to Norman, Oklahoma in Week 2, suffered a 13-69 beating, but got a nice paycheck.   This week, they’ll get a bigger paycheck, but I think a similar beating.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 66-14.   Ohio State covers the new line, not the initial line. 

To date:  3-0 S/U.  1-2 ATS.  

California

“Got no feel, I got no rhythm.  I just keep losing the beat.” – Freddie Mercury.

Well, after two games I am 2-0 S/U, but a woeful 0-2 ATS.   And this week we deal with (a) a rare non-conference road trip; (b) the uncertain status of Braxton Miller; and (c) a completely new system and coach at Cal.   Should be easy.

Way back when we scheduled the home-and-home with Cal, they were a top 10 team battling with USC for Pac-10 supremacy.  Then they nose-dived into the Pac-12 North basement and head coach Jeff Tedford was asked to leave.  But Tedford was on the sidelines last year when his (eventual) 3-9 Bears took OSU to the wire.  (Highlights with awful music can be found here).  Cal outgained Ohio State 512-412 in that game.  Thankfully, their FG kicker was 0-3, including a key miss late in the 4^th.

Now Cal has Daniel “Sonny” Dykes as Coach.  Sonny is the son of William “Spike” Dykes, who was the HC at Texas Tech for 14 years.  Sonny came to Cal from Louisiana Tech, where he was 22-15 during his 3 years there.   What we can glean from Sonny’s record at La Tech was that in 2012 they were No. 1 in Total Offense and No. 1 in Scoring Offense.   They were also No. 120 in Total Defense and No. 116 in Scoring Defense.   To illustrate, here’s the box score of when Texas A&M played La. Tech).

Things appear to be taking similar form at Cal this year.    After two games, Cal is No. 1 in Passing offense and No. 9 in total offense.  They are averaging 33.5 points/game which places them 55^th.   On defense, they are 109^th against the run, 104^th against the pass, 116^th in total defense, and 104^th in scoring defense.   “Bear” in mind that their game last week was against FCS Portland State.   Cal was a 30.5 point favorite and only won 37-30.  In week one, Cal fell at home to Northwestern, 44-30.

Cal starts Freshman Jared Goff (9) at QB and while he’s No. 1 in passing yards per game, he’s 60^th in passing efficiency with a rating of 137.2.   He has 3 INTs to go with his 4 TDs.  Neither Miller nor Guiton are officially ranked in passing efficiency yet, but Miller had a rating of 157.05 v. Buffalo, and Guiton had a 129.89 rating v. SDState, so that gives you a comparison.   From the highlights above, you should remember RB Brendan Bigelow (5), who busted two long runs v. the Buckeyes.  He’s back and has 33 carries for 136 yards.   Freshman Khalfani Muhammad (29) has 16 rushes for 82 yards.  Both are in the range of 5’9” 180 so they are the small guys who are supposed to bust the big plays, but that has not happened much yet.   Since Goff throws nearly 70% of the time, Cal has a host of players who have caught passes.  Sophomores Bryce Treggs (1) and Chris Harper (6) get the most attention.

There is no one on the Cal defense to note.

Ohio State is 6-1 v. Cal, but the last visit to Berkeley was 1972 (we won 35-18).  The more important stat for me though is how the Buckeyes do with non-conference away games.  The answer?  Pretty good.   Since 1982, Ohio State is 12-2-1 on the road v. non-conference opponents who are not from the Pac-12.   But, against that conference, the Buckeyes are 2-5.  Hmm.  We have lost to USC and Washington twice, and once to UCLA, while the two wins were against Arizona and Washington. 

The Buckeyes enter the game as the No. 4 team in the latest AP poll, and Cal has not fared well in recent matchups against a top 10 team.  They have dropped 7 straight and are 3-4 ATS in that time.  In home games, they are 0-4 S/U and 1-3 ATS.   Since Cal is under new management, I looked at Sonny Dykes record against top opponents when he was at La. Tech.   The Bulldogs were 0-3 S/U and 2-1 ATS v. top 25 teams in his three years there.

The last cause for concern is that this is technically a night game (because it starts after 5 p.m. ET, even though it will be 4 p.m. PT at kickoff).  The recent versions of the Buckeyes are not at their best on the road under the lights with losses at Nebraska and Miami, and a narrow win over Indiana last year.   

So, we know Cal with throw a lot and we think that Cal will score.  We know that Cal will allow Ohio State to score.  So, at first blush, the O/U of 66 seems like it should fall.   Ohio State started out as a 15 point favorite and that has increased to 16 with the information that Braxton Miller may be ready to play.   I don’t know if it will matter too much if Braxton plays or not, because the Cal defense is just that bad.   And if my memory is correct, Guiton has played some QB on the road and he doesn’t seem like a guy who is going to be fazed.   I think our defense is much better than Portland State’s and probably better than Northwestern’s.   I think Jared Goff will not see another secondary like ours.  I think it will be a close game for 2.5 – 3 quarters with the Buckeyes eventually pulling away and covering. 

Schaef says:  Ohio State 47, Cal 30.

San Diego State

The good thing about posting this on Wednesday is that you have plenty of time to run to Walgreen’s, Rite Aid, or CVS to get your Tums, Rolaids, or Maalox.   You will need them Saturday as Ohio State plays the dreaded “Second Home Game.” 

I’m not exactly sure when the curse began, but my research points to 1987 when an unranked Oregon Ducks team gave the No. 5 ranked Buckeyes fits until we squeezed out a 24-14 win.   Since then, almost every season that Ohio State opens up with two home games played on consecutive weeks, the results are – how shall I put this? – less than impressive and sometimes downright scary.  Sure, there are some outliers – in 1996, Ohio State opened with a 70-7 whooping of Rice followed by an equally impressive 72-0 pounding of Pitt.  The next year we handled BG 44-13 in Week 2.   But that is about it.  (Note 2002’s 51-17 victory over Kent State came two weeks after our game one win over Texas Tech).

Since 2003, there have been 9 seasons in which Ohio State opened with home games in the first 2 weeks.  We are 7-2 straight up (2005 loss to Texas; 2009 loss to USC), but 2-7 ATS (we covered v. USC, and then against Miami, Fl in 2010).   Some of those heartburn games include Marshall in 2004 (24-21), Akron in 2007 (20-2), Ohio in 2008 (26-14), Toledo in 2011 (27-22), and UCF last year (31-16).  And another one of those games was against the very same San Diego State Aztecs that are coming on Saturday.  In 2003, after Krenzel and company disposed of Nationally Ranked Washington in Week One, we were a 30.5 point favorite v. San Diego State.   We won 16-13, and needed a Will Allen 100 yard INT return for a TD to win, as Krenzel was an awful 5-20 for 76 yards, and we committed 12 penalties for 124 yards.

This is actually San Diego State’s fourth trip to Columbus in the past 13 seasons.  In 2001, our game with them was delayed from September 15 to an open date in October due to 9/11.   Even though we were unranked (3-2), we were still a 22.5 point favorite.   San Diego State scored first and led 12-6 at the half, but Ohio State managed 3 second half TDs for the win.  In 2003, San Diego State scored first again, but the Buckeyes led by 3 at the half and each team traded FGs in the very tense second half.  In 2005, San Diego State was a 27.5 point underdog, but scored first (again) on the first play of the game with an 80 yard TD strike.  We shut them down after that, allowing only 3 first downs, and slowly ground our way to the 27-6 win. 

So, we have Ohio State’s horrible history in Second Home Games, combined with San Diego State, who has scored first each of the three times they played the Bucks, and who has covered the spread in each game.  With Vegas rating Ohio State as a 28 point favorite with an over/under of 54, this should be an easy bet.  Take the Aztecs and bet the under.

Yet, San Diego State lost last week.   Not only did they lose, but they lost at home to FCS’ Eastern Illinois, when the Aztecs were favored by 14.   Oh, the score was Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19.   So, maybe they suck?   I don’t think so.   I think last week was a combination of a lot of bad things for the Aztecs.   They have 15 starters returning from a 9-4 team that tied for the MWC title and played in a bowl game.  They have a good running game that they had to abandon when they fell so far behind last week.   Their QB ended up throwing for a career high in attempts, but also tossed 4 INTs which compounded their problems.  San Diego State has arguably the best front 7 in MWC (much like Buffalo & the MAC), but that defense was put in poor positions v. Eastern Illinois.   You can bet that they are going to want to prove that they are not as bad as they looked last week.  They will play better.   Pay attention to Junior RB (4) Adam Muema, who rushed for almost 1,500 yards last year.  Also, you will see a lot of Junior MLB (42) Jake Feeley, who led the Aztecs in sacks, and was 2^nd in both Tackles for Loss and Total Tackles. 

Now, I am sure Meyer will want the Buckeyes to iron out their problems from Week One v. Buffalo, and we get Roby, Barnett, and Rod Smith back.   And Urban is 43-4 in games in August & September, and beat SD State twice while at Utah.  The Aztecs are 0-11 in their last 11 v. Big Ten teams, and Ohio State is 7-1 v. teams from the Mountain West.   But this is not about the S/U win, because I think Ohio State wins this game.   The issue is the spread, and frankly I am shocked that the Vegas line has gone up from 24 to 28. 

Coach Rocky Long took over from Brady Hoke and is doing a great job.  They are 7-3 on the road, 2-4 v. Top 25 teams, and 5-2 after a loss with him on the sidelines.   They will play much better than they did last week, and Ohio State will win, but I don’t think it will be a blowout.   I cannot ignore the history of the Buckeyes’ of the Second Home Game nor the success San Diego State has had.  Take the Aztecs and the points.   The o/u is a push.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 34, San Diego State 20.

Fulham - Newcastle

What a great way to start a Saturday!  (Proper) Football with Fulham at 10:00 followed by The Ohio State University (American) football.

This is Martin Jol's 101st match as Manager of the Cottagers and so far he 36 wins and 25 draws against 39 losses.  If they were all league matches it would be 133 points/300, which is . . . not great.  It equates out to roughly a 50 point season in the EPL.   But where Jol has done better than expected is away from Craven Cottage.  52 of those 100 matches have been on the road, and he has 13 wins and 14 draws against 25 defeats.  Coming away with points more than 50% of the time is something Fulham fans have not been accustomed to.  As great as Roy was, one away win was what was expected and often seen.

Our trips to Newcastle under Jol have both been 1 goal losses.  In August 2011, Fulham looked impressive for large chunks of the match, only to fall behind 0-2 on Leon Best's brace.   Clint Dempsey's goal in the 88th minute narrowed the margin, but no equalizer was found.  Last April's match was particularly cruel as Papa Cisse found the net in the 3rd minute of stoppage time in an otherwise evenly matched affair.

Newcastle seems to be in greater disarray this fall with Manager Alan Pardew being the favorite to be the first manager sacked this season.  They have certainly failed to impress in two matches so far, being routed 0-4 at Man City, then playing to a scoreless draw at home to West Ham.  I think the Cottagers are much closer to West Ham than City, so I expect to see a similar result this Saturday.

I believe we will need a few more matches before all the kinks can be worked out among our returning players and our new signees.   I think Jol will need several matches to figure out which combination of midfielders will provide Fulham with the appropriate pace and attack.  Because of this, I fear our attack this Saturday will be lacking.  Fortunately, we will be playing the Magpies and not the Gunners who found space easily and often.   Our defense shut down Sunderland and should do the same to Newcastle.

Unfortunately, this leads to a 0-0 draw, but one point at St. James Park is better than none, and 4 points from 2 trips to the NE is even better.

Buffalo

And so it begins again . . .

Of course, you know by now that the Buckeyes have won 34 consecutive home openers with the last loss being . . . anyone? Anyone? Buehler?  Buehler?  Penn State in 1978 (Art Schlichter’s first game).  Ohio State has won those 34 by an average of 23 points.   Buffalo is up next and as you may know the Bulls are in the MAC.   Ohio State is 17-0 v. the MAC since 2000 and the Bulls are 1-5 v. the Big Ten with their only win coming just 113 years ago v. Penn State.   Yes, you read that correctly.   They beat PSU in 1900.  The Bulls have won a total of 9 games in the past 3 years, so naturally Ohio State will roll and cover the 35 points Vegas has set for the spread.

As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend.”

Last year, Buffalo went down to Georgia (then ranked No. 6) on the 2012 opening weekend and played with the Bulldogs, losing only 23-45 in a game much closer than the score indicated.  FYI – Georgia was a 38 point favorite.   In 2011, the Bulls went to Pitt, and although they were a 30.5 point underdog, Buffalo played the Panthers tough, eventually losing 16-35.   Two huge point spreads against major conference teams, and both times the Bulls not only covered, but made the games interesting.

Now imagine this scenario:  Braxton Miller looking to pass, and 2-time 1^st team MAC LB Khalil Mack (No. 46 in your program, with an NFL ready body of 6’3” 250), who by the way would have led the Buckeyes in sacks, comes streaking in unblocked and Braxton doesn’t see him.   The collision occurs and Braxton doesn’t get up.    I worry about that.   And if you think I’m overreacting, well, you are correct.   But, we had a lot of luck last year.   A lot of luck.   Everything resorts to the mean and I cannot help but think that some bad breaks may be coming.   Khalil Mack will be drafted in April and he’s a bad m---f---.   We need to be aware of him and not let him hit No. 5.

Buffalo can stay in games because they run, they run well, and they don’t abandon the run despite the score.   Senior Branden Oliver (32) missed 5 games last year and still had 820 yards.  He had 1,400 yards 2 years ago.  When Oliver was out, Devin Campbell (21) had 3 100 yard games.   And they are not piling up yards on the weak sisters of the MAC, as the Bulls put up 200 yards rushing v. Georgia.  Given the newness of our front 7, Buffalo’s rushing game could keep our high powered offense off the field and kill some clock.  Unsure of who will start at QB.  Senior Alex Zordich (15) likes to run and throw, but he missed the last 4 games.  Sophomore Joe Licata (16) came in and threw the ball very well, but does not run.  So,  two completely different styles.   When Buffalo throws, it goes to Senior Alex Neutz (19).  Neutz had almost 40% of Buffalo’s receptions in 2012 as he compiled eye-popping stats of 65 catches for 1,015 yards and 11 TDs. 

On defense – did I mention Khalil Mack already? – the Bulls have 7 returning starters (all juniors and seniors) and arguably the best LB and DB corps in the MAC.

Now, if this all sounds like doom and gloom, don’t worry.  Ohio State will win and win by double digits.  I mean, in the past 14 years as a Division I program, Buffalo has won a total of 39 games.   None of those wins are against a team from one of the major conferences, unless you give them credit for beating Rutgers in 2000 when Rutgers was not Rutgers yet.  My point is that the Bulls should not be underestimated.

That being said, I think the Buckeyes do win big and even cover the 35.  I think we have too much talent on offense and I think our defense will be able to focus on stopping the run.   And even Luke Fickell covered v. Akron is his first game as head coach.    I don’t see Buffalo getting more than 13, and I see our offense putting up at least 50.   So, take the Buckeyes and give the points, and bet the over (55.5):

Schaef says:  Ohio State 56, Buffalo 13.

FYI – Current forecast for Saturday in Columbus:  90 with a chance of a T-storm.   Hot and humid.  Buffalo will have 60 players, Buckeyes should dress 85.  Just sayin.