Michigan

After Saturday, this was my first reaction.

But then, I met this kid and I knew I needed to get my act together and fast.

Sure, our chances at defending our National Championship in the CFP have gone from 90% to 10%, but how often do you win a NC anyway?  We’ve played for 4 in the past 14 years.  That’s not too shabby.  Sure it hurts when you lose the NC game or fall just short, but you get over it.   You don’t get over a loss to the Maize and Blue.   You. Just. Don’t.

And so, while I thought about mailing it in this week and giving you a 2 sentence (“I don’t know. I don’t care.”) preview – like the marines at Guantanamo, that little crying kid wants me on that wall.  He needs me on that wall.

Going to Ann Arbor is not as intimidating as it used to be.  The Buckeyes have won 5 of the last 7 in Michigan Stadium.   Sure, Brady Hoke beat us his first year at UM, but he beat a team that was 6-5 and run by an interim coach.   In 2007, after Ohio State blew an undefeated season losing to Illinois in the Shoe, the Buckeyes went up to Ann Arbor and beat a nationally ranked, Lloyd Carr led Michigan team, 14-3.   Even Earle Bruce was 3-2 in Ann Arbor against Bo.  Home field does not matter much here.

One stat that is troubling is that 6 of the last 7 UM coaches have won the Game their first time out (only Rich Rod in 2008 failed to do so).   But even though this is a rivalry game, the higher ranked team has gone 14-4, with one of those losses being when the teams were ranked #5 and #4.   And if you excuse an 0-5 stretch during the Cooper years, the higher ranked team was 14-6 in the 20 previous matches.  As I type, I don’t know where the CFP Committee will rank the two teams, but using the AP and Coaches as a guide, Ohio State should be around No. 8 and Michigan around No. 12.

Early in the season, Michigan’s defense was the hot thing.  But that squad has given up 126 points in their last 5 (MSU, Minn, Rutgers, Indiana, and PSU).  Meanwhile, the Silver Bullets have given up 132 points in their last 9 games.  (Disclosure – if you add up Michigan’s last 9 games you get 133 points against.  That’s pretty even).  Michigan hasn’t played many QBs who like to run, but when they have, they’ve given up over 100+ yards.  And it isn’t that the QB burns them, it appears to be the threat of the run that can turn into more yards for the RB (witness Indiana RB Jordan Howard going off for 238 yards).

This is not your typical Wolverine team on offense.  Much like Sparty, they lack a big time, give me the ball RB.  De’Veon Smith is a very good player, but overall Michigan is 81^st in rushing offense.  They managed only 62 yards rushing v. MSU and 87 v. PSU.  QB Jake Rudock certainly will not beat you with his legs.  Harbaugh will look to pound the ball to get to 3^rd and 5, then Rudock will complete a pass to TE Jake Butt, or WR Amara Darboh.   They will get the first down and keep the clock moving.   Michigan is No. 2 nationally in Time of Possession.  They will want to shorten the game and keep our O off the field, much like MSU did.

Obviously, the big question for Buckeye fans is whether this team (including coaching staff) will implode after last week’s fiasco, or bond together and come out better.  There’s still something to play for too.  I just cannot see this team turning against itself and falling apart.  The defense will be fine - it’s whether the offense can gel.   They proved against Penn State and Rutgers that they can, so I have more than hope.  The weather should be better this Saturday, and this team has ALWAYS played better on the road than at home.  Want proof – Ohio State is 48-4 under Meyer; 27-2 in Columbus, 4-2 in neutral site games, 17-0 in true road games.

This is Ohio State – Michigan.   You don’t need extra motivation, but here is some:  Ohio State went from being a virtual lock in the CFP to a 1.5 dog (over/under is 45).  Meyer and the Buckeyes are 6-0 S/U and 6-0 ATS as an underdog.  Redemption will arrive at 3:25 p.m. in Ann Arbor, Michigan.  Then, we will root for Penn State, but don’t expect a miracle.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 28, Michigan 20.

Michigan State

“The only constant in life is change.”  - Heraclitus of Ephesus (535 BC – 475 BC).  Or, maybe not.  I wasn’t around back then so maybe he didn’t say that.  But someone did.  Sometime.  I think.

This is the last game in the Shoe for Seniors LT Taylor Decker, C Jacoby Boren, RT Chase Farris, HB Braxton Miller, TE Nick Vannett, DT Adolphus Washington, DT Tommy Schutt, DT Joel Hale, and LB Joshua Perry.  It’s also likely the last home game for QB Cardale Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Michael Thomas, DE Joey Bosa, LB Darron Lee, S Vonn Bell, and S Tyvis Powell.   That’s enough to make for some strange sounds Saturday.   But we had this changing of the guard in 1970, 1976, 1981, 1995, 2003, and in 2006 (just to mention a few years that huge classes left) and we will have it again.   So, let’s raise a glass or bottle to these 9 seniors (there may be others) and these 7 underclassmen and say “Thank you for being a Buckeye.  We loved having you here.”

Okay, finally, after ten long weeks. Seriously, after Va. Tech, this game has been coming for sooooo long many Buckeye fans are like this guy.  But the Ohio State “preseason” is over.   Our “real” season officially begins Saturday.  Hopefully, it will be 5 games long.

Call me crazy, but I almost wish this game was in East Lansing.  In the last 35 years, the Buckeyes are 11-2 at Spartan Stadium winning by an average of 18 ppg, with some pretty big blowouts (wins by 38, 32, 31 and 24). Contrast that to our 8-3 record at home with the average winning margin being only 10 points.  Since 1979, Sparty has not lost by more than 14 points in Columbus, so I take notice. [You may want to read that again].  Maybe it’s because they are a team “fighting with a vim!” (They should change one of the lines to “Fight, Fight, Go Green White” but I digress).  MSU won in their last visit to Columbus, 10-7, but the Spartans have not won in back-to-back trips to the Shoe since 1951 & 1953. 

As much as people talk about how Ohio State has struggled, MSU has done the same.  2-7 ATS as a favorite with close wins over Purdue, Rutgers, and a miracle finish over TTUN.  Depending on your point of view, you could say lady luck ran out in Lincoln, or they got hosed by a terrible call.  Either way, this is not the Spartans we are used to seeing.  Right now, MSU is 92^nd in rushing offense.  Their leading rusher, L.J. Scott, has 519 yards.  What in the name of Lorenzo White is going on up there?  And their normally stout defense?  Sparty is 11^th in the B1G in passing yards allowed. Long time DC Pat Narduzzi left the East Lansing sidelines/press box to take over the HC position at Pitt and MSU may be missing him.  Of course, they gave up 49 to us and 41 to Baylor in 2014, so maybe there were cracks in the foundation then that are more apparent now.

Fortunately for them, they have QB Connor Cook whose gaudy 32-4 record as a starter rivals Urban Meyer’s 48-3 record as Buckeye HC.   The key question is “how is Cook’s shoulder?”  He sat out the 2^nd half v. Maryland as a precaution (and because, well, it was Maryland) and he says he’ll play.  But how effective will he be?   Will he look like Connor Cook or maybe more like the November 2015 version of Peyton Manning? One well-timed hit from Bosa or Washington could dramatically alter the course of this game.

As for the Buckeye offense, with RT Chase Farris securing long-term employment as a revolving door at the Polaris Mall after his playing career is over, will we be able to mount any passing attack to hit Sparty where they are (statistically) weak?  MSU has a good pass rush, but when we line up with a TE on Farris’ right and one behind him even Dantonio might think a pass is coming.  Maybe our gameplan will be to allow DE Calhoun & Co. to run upfield without opposition and hit them with a screen or draw or flat pass.  Either way, Barrett is going to have to watch his right flank.  Zeke should get his 100 but it will be tougher to come by.

I am flabbergasted that the Vegas line opened up at 13 and has now increased to 13.5.   The Sharps must know that Cook’s shoulder is not close to 100% as that is the only explanation that makes sense.  MSU is a big game team.  With Cook, they are 4-1 v. Top 10 and 7-3 v. Top 25.  Add to that their history in Columbus, I would expect the line to be closer to 5.   Game time weather promises to be a wonderful 43 degrees with rain.   Even if Cook cannot throw or is severely limited, this promises to be a close, lower scoring affair.

I think the Buckeyes win.  I do think you ought to excuse small children from the room and remove all fragile items in the surrounding area.   It’ll be squeaky bum time throughout the 4^th quarter and most of us will age more than we need to.  But in the end, OSU will survive and advance.  I’d take MSU with the points and bet the under (53).

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 28, Michigan State 25.

P.S.  You didn’t think for a minute that I would leave out my favorite video, did you?  Here’s your daily moment of zen, courtesy of John L.  Serenity now! 

Illinois

Last week we had to deal with “Ski-U-Mah.”   This week it’s “Os-kee-Wow-Wow.”   Apparently, unlike Ohio, marijuana initiatives did pass in the Big Ten West.

Champaign-Urbana in November sounds like an inhospitable place.  Although I haven’t been there, I’ve been close, and my memory is that it is flat, windy, and about 10 degrees colder than the thermometer says.  Not bad enough that you’ll need one of these, but still mighty chilly.  And yet, despite these drawbacks, the Buckeyes love to play at Memorial Stadium.

Ohio State has won 10 consecutive games at Illinois.   The Illini’s last 6 wins in the series have all come in Columbus (but sometimes losing a shoe is not the same as losing in the Shoe).  Their last win at home was 1991, a true B1G contest that ended 10-7. (Further nostalgia:  OSU featured QB Kent Graham, RBs Carlos Snow & Butler By’not’e, while Illinois had coach John Mackovic, QB John Verduzco, and RB Kameno Bell).  Those of us who are “older” remember the headaches Illinois and HC Mike White caused in the 1980s, but I was surprised to find out that Earle Bruce was 7-2 against them.  It was John Cooper (aka G—D---- Cooper) who was only 8-6 v. Illinois (so it wasn’t only scUM that he could not defeat).  The Senator was 5-2 against the Illini but many of the games were too close for comfort. 

Urban Meyer so far is 3 for 3 with an average score of 56-24.  But that was against Tim Beckman who isn’t coaching anymore simply because he “employed a wide array of motivational tactics that violated sports medicine standards and protocols.”  So, he (allegedly) called kids with concussions too “scared” to play and (allegedly) threatened to remove your scholarship if you went to a trainer for evaluation and treatment. So, he (allegedly) physically and (allegedly) verbally abused players.  Is that too high a price to pay for going 12-25 overall and 4-20 in the Big Ten in return?  Where are your priorities Illinois?   #sarcasm

Anyway, former Western Michigan HC Bill Cubit has taken over and the result is that the Illinois defense has dramatically improved.  The Illini have improved 70 or more places in the rankings for Rushing defense, Total defense, Scoring defense, 3^rd down defense, 1^st downs allowed, Pass efficiency defense, and interceptions.  Yes, you read that right – over 70 places.   They have gone from giving up 456 yards/game to 342, and giving up 34 ppg to 21.7.    Their offense?   Not so much.   Illinois is 98^th in Rushing Offense, 108^th in Pass Efficiency Offense, 97^th in 3^rd down conversions, and 123^rd in net punting.   Their defense has to be good because the offense goes nowhere and the punter gives the opposition good field position.  Meanwhile, the Silver Bullets have moved up to 12^th against the rush, and 9^th in Pass efficiency defense.  So, J.T. and the offense should get the ball often and Jalin Marshall’s returns should put the ball near midfield or better.

If Cardale was at the helm, then it would be Minnesota, part 2.   While I like Cardale, clearly he’s not the same guy as he was last December/January.  J.T. will be back and as good as Illinois’ defense is, you can run on them.  Iowa went off for 278, North Carolina for 254, and Nebraska for 187.   What’s more is Illinois has yet to face a QB that can run like Barrett.  Only UNC was close and their QB rushed only 9 times but for 106 yards.   Every other QB Illinois has faced has been more of a pocket passer.   Barrett carrying 18 or more times on Saturday will be an eye opener for them.

Since a huge upset in November 2007 (I can’t recall who they beat) Illinois is 1-20 v. ranked teams.  They are 1-4 S/U as a dog in 2015 and 2-3 ATS.   The line opened at 17 but is now down to 16.  I don’t know why.  Maybe it is the speculation about whether Barrett will start.  If Jones was starting, I’d take the points.  But I fully expect J.T. to play the entire 60 minutes and he and Zeke will run wild, much like Braxton and Carlos did.   Our defense should shut down the offense similar to what PSU did to Illinois (27 rushes for 37 yards, and 17-44-130 yards passing).  I don’t even care what the weather will be like.  Give the points and bet the over of 55.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 49, Illinois 14.

Minnesota

So, I’m not ashamed to admit that this is the first thing I think of when we play Minnesota.  In case you were wondering, this is the second.  Or maybe it is this.

Where was I?

Oh, yes. Minnesota.   I think this game will be decided by each team’s 2015 FEI Rating for Field Position.  Ohio State is No. 1 and Minnesota is No. 109.  Full disclaimer – I have no idea what this statistic means but I am under the impression that being first is good and being 109^th is bad.  So we got that going for us.

For some reason, we rarely play Minnesota.  The first meeting was in 1921.  In 94 years, this will be only the 52^nd meeting between the schools and the first in Columbus since 2009.  Ohio State is a strong 44-7 against the Gophers, with nearly identical records home (22-3) and away (22-4).   Even more impressive is that the Buckeyes have won 37 of the last 39 matchups (losing in 2000 at home and 1981 in Minneapolis).

Minnesota’s offense is not very good statistically.  I was under the impression that Gopher games moved along quickly because they are low scoring affairs with an emphasis on running.  But Minnesota’s offense frequently stalls and they have punted 50 times in 8 games (compared to 34 for Ohio State).  So, their average length of games has been 3:22, meaning this one ain’t getting over until probably 11:30 p.m.

Despite J.T.’s suspension, Vegas has the Buckeyes as a 23 point favorite, with the o/u at 53.5.  The Gophers are 0-1 ATS this year as a Road Dog (v. 2-0 ATS as a Home Dog).  Minnesota is 10-8 ATS in B1G road games in the Jerry Kill era, but a more impressive 7-2 in their last 9.  As noted above, there have been no trips to the Shoe during that span.  Historically, Minnesota has not fared well in Columbus going 1-3 ATS in their last 4 trips.

My initial reaction is that with Cardale back at the helm, our offense will stagnate against a good defense.  However, I think Jones will be playing with a chip on his shoulder and have something to prove.  I think our offensive line will revert to the last 3 games of 2014 and play at a higher level for Cardale.   Also, Minnesota is coming off a very emotional game last week v. Michigan and I think it will be difficult for them to sustain that emotion.  So, I think I’m giving the points and taking the under, both by the narrowest of margins.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Minnesota 13.

Idle week

Some sobering news:  Braxton Miller, Zeke Elliott (Jr.), Michael Thomas (Jr.), Vonn Bell (Jr.), Joey Bosa (Jr.), Joshua Perry, Tyvis Powell (Jr.), Darron Lee (R.So.), Adolphus Washington, Taylor Decker, and Jacoby Boren all have only 2 games left in the Shoe. 

Some bonus picks this week since the Buckeyes are idle:

B1G –

Rutgers at Wisconsin (-20.5):  Wisconsin won 37-0 last year in Piscataway.  This one is in Camp Randall.  Badger defense pretty good.  Give the points.  PREDICTION:  Wisconsin 34, Rutgers 7.

Nebraska (-10.5) at Purdue: No one has suffered more heartbreaking losses than the Huskers.  This won’t be one.  Decent Purdue team now turning into who we thought they were. PREDICTION:  Nebraska 38, Purdue 17.

Maryland (+10) at Iowa:  Hawkeyes undefeated but not dominating. Iowa only 3-9 ATS when favored by double digits. Maryland O will keep this tight. PREDICTION:  Iowa 30, Maryland 21.

Illinois (+5.5) at Penn State:  Illinois 1-2 in Happy Valley, but losses were by 3 and in OT.  This will be close – take the points.  PREDICTION:  Penn State 24, Illinois 21.

Michigan (-14) at Minnesota:  Gophers won last year and have won 3x in AA since 1978.  Haven’t won in Minneapolis during that time and haven’t held the Little Brown Jug in consecutive years since 62-63.  Michigan 6-0 in rematch after loss, with average margin 21.  Wolverines been waiting two weeks to hit something.  PREDICTION: Michigan 35, Minnesota 7.

Other –

West Virginia (+14) at TCU:  Last three times played games decided by 1, 3, and 1, with a single OT and a double OT.  2^nd consecutive road game for Mountaineers and they are 3-1 ATS in those.  Upset special alert.  PREDICTION:  TCU 40, West Va. 37.

Clemson at NC State (+10):  Tigers coming off big win at Miami and have Florida State next week.  This is classic trap game. NCST beat No. 7 Clemson in 2011 in Raleigh.  Upset special alert number 2.  PREDICTION:  Clemson 30, NC State 27.

Random thoughts on TWD

Almost 48 hours have passed, so anyone who doesn't know that Glen may have died in last Sunday night's episode of AMC's "The Walking Dead," I'm sorry to play the spoiler.  I don't know how you could have missed it as the internet is full of stories speculating whether Glen actually died or not.

For those of you not familiar with the setup (or as a simple refresher), Glen and another survivor, Nicholas, were trapped in an alley while a herd (500+) of zombies came at them.  They struggled to the top of a dumpster for safety.  Nicholas, who had been suffering from PTSD (or some other condition) concluded their situation was hopeless and used his last bullet in his gun on himself.  The result of the shot was that Nicholas fell into Glen, and the two of them fell off the dumpster into the hoarde.  Glen is seen lying on his back while the zombies rip into a body.  But was that body Glen's?

This is where most of the stories center themselves.  They go frame by frame to look at how the bodies fell, the positioning of the body the zombies are tearing up, etc.

While this is fascinating, it misses a very important point.  Glen has been around since episode number one.  He was the second post-apocalyptic human that Rick met, and Glen has been with us ever since.  If he is going to die on the show, the show is going to give him a proper sending off.  The scene described above occurs 3/4 of the way through the show and we never return to the alley.

Instead, this scene was more about Nicholas' redemption.  He was a punk who didn't know what he was doing - but thought he did - when we met him.  He even tried to kill Glen.  But Glen showed him compassion and helped turn Nicholas around into a valuable, contributing member of the group.  His journey was complete just before he and Glen were stuck in the alley.  Having been "saved" by Glen, Nicholas could take himself out knowing that at least he had done some good in the last weeks.

Glen is too important a figure to simply be a side note in Nicholas' death scene.  So, Glenn is likely alive.  However, I think TWD's ploy may backfire because the situation looks very grim as Glen is on his back, pinned down by his dead friend, while 500 zombies surround them.  TWD better serve up a believable story of how Glen could possibly survive this situation or it risks alienating viewers with what could turn out to be a cheap gimmick.

Rutgers

First of all there’s this (just because).

Ok, on to Rutgers.  I wish I could get excited for this game, but alas, no.   With J.T. Barrett back at the helm, I’m just too optimistic.  Plus, there’s no history with Rutgers other than last year’s game.   In case you don’t have time, here’s a summary of what J.T. and the offense did with its first few possessions:   TD, TD, TD, Punt, (defensive TD), TD, halftime, TD, TD, and TD.    It was 49-7 midway through the 3^rd quarter, backup QB Cardale Jones was playing, and after having watched the OSUMB’s awesome “Classic Rock” halftime performance, you had seen enough.

So, why would you expect anything different this year now that Urban has finally made the choice that so many of us thought should’ve been made on Labor Day?  Especially since with JT running the show, Ohio State covered the spread for the first time since Va. Tech?  And when factoring in that Rutgers is 1-9 v. ranked opponents and Meyer is 13-0 in B1G road games? 

Well, did you know that in 7 of those 13 B1G road wins, the Buckeyes have won by a TD or less (including Indiana this year)?  So, we have a tendency to keep teams in the game.  And Rutgers gave Michigan State all Sparty could handle in High Point Solutions Stadium (yes, that’s its name) only two weeks ago.  And Rutgers has a decent offense?   Okay – that’s all I got.

Look, with JT running the offense, the Buckeyes will be back scoring 50+ per game.   Zeke and JT will both rush for 100+ yards, and with all that running, eventually some pass plays are going to open up.  Rutgers is pretty decent against the rush but they will need to commit their safeties to try and stop both 15 and 16, and that will open up Miller, Marshall, and Thomas for big plays.  Rutgers will have some big plays against our defense because that’s what we do.   But unlike Schutt’s wrist, we won’t break.  And, if Rutgers is without its star WR Leonte Carroo, well then, it will be a slaughter worse than 2014.  Oh, and in case you were wondering, Sophomore QB Chris Laviano is more like PSU’s Christian Hackenberg than IU’s Zach Diamont or Maryland’s Perry Hills.

The Buckeyes are once again the 8:00 p.m. ET ABC national game with Chris, Kirk, and Heather.  Why?  Because this week’s slate of CFB games is pretty poor for tantalizing matchups.  Plus, Piscataway is a de facto suburb of NYC, so ABC wants to draw in that crowd, and Ohio State always draws viewers.  Basically, more money will flow here than from Iowa State-Baylor, West Va.- TCU, or Clemson-Miami.

Vegas has the Buckeyes a 21 point favorite and the line hasn’t moved much since it opened.  The sharks probably figured Urban was going with JT, but failed to factor in his effect over a full 60 minutes.  After 5 consecutive ATS losses, that’s understandable.  (There is no over/under posted yet which is odd).  If Carroo were healthy, then I might consider taking the points.  However, he’s not and I think his effectiveness will be limited.  Laviano won’t kill us with his feet, and our Nationally ranked No. 4 pass efficiency D should be solid.  I think the offense continues its roll from the end of last week and posts a big number.   Take the Buckeyes and give the points (and go the over if 60 or less):

Schaef says:  Ohio State 52, Rutgers 21. 

Way Too Early B1G East Tiebreaker

Ohio State fans are a funny lot.   One moment they are relishing Sparty's improbable come from behind victory over That Team Up North.   The next moment, they are concerned that TTUN may still win out, including a win over the Buckeyes.  So, what happens if Michigan State beats Michigan (DONE), Ohio State beats Michigan State, and Michigan somehow beats Ohio State?

To make this work, we have to make certain assumptions.   First, we need to have all three end in a three-way tie at 7-1 in conference, with their only losses to each other.  That means Ohio State wins every game but The Big Game, Sparty wins every game except its trip to Columbus, and Michigan wins out.  The Big Ten tiebreaking system has seven steps for a three-way tie.  If at any point, one team gets eliminated in the comparison, then you resort to head-to-head to determine the winner.  So, if Ohio State beats Michigan State, it wants the tiebreaking system to eliminate Michigan as soon as possible.

Step No. 1 - The records in games against each other.  This will not resolve the matter because they will all be 1-1 against each other.

Step No. 2 - Records within the division.  Still nothing.  Each team will have one loss, all coming against an Eastern Division opponent.   Moving on to . . .

Step No. 3 - Records v. teams finishing next in standings, in order (team 4, then 5, then 6 and finally 7).   Well, under my scenario, OSU, MSU, and UM will all be unbeaten v. these four teams.  So, still no resolution.

Step No. 4 - Records versus all common conference opponents.  In other words, did y'all play the same teams from the West?  Sadly, no.  Michigan drew N'western and Minnesota.  Ohio State plays Minnesota too (and Illinois), but MSU has Purdue and Nebraska.  So this step is inapplicable.

Step No. 5 - Highest team ranked in the CFP poll at the end of the B1G season, UNLESS the teams are one spot away from each other in which case the head-to-head meeting will take precedent.

Finally, we are getting somewhere, but we are going to have to make some more assumptions.  First, let's assume that when the CFP comes out, Ohio State will be in the top 4 (likely) and after beating an undefeated MSU, the Buckeyes will be a solid 1 or 2.   Let's also assume that at the time of that matchup, MSU is No. 6 in the poll, because: (a) Baylor and TCU don't play each other until Nov. 27 so both should be in the top 4; (b) if Clemson beats FSU at home they will still be unbeaten; and, (c)  the winner of LSU-Bama has got to be in the top 5.  If Utah is still unbeaten, the Sparty is likely No. 7 or 8.  When the Buckeyes beat the Spartans, Michigan State probably drops to 10 or 12 in the poll, which is probably right where Michigan will be after winning 4 straight.  So, going into the Ohio State - Michigan game, Ohio State will be No. 2, Michigan State No. 10, and Michigan No. 11.

While the Wolverines' victory over Ohio State would be devastating, the Buckeyes probably drop only to No. 6 because (a) it's a road loss to a highly ranked opponent, and (b) other top teams will be losing that weekend.  Either TCU or Baylor has to lose. It's also rivalry week and someone else may fall.  Even if they don't, 6 looks like the logical number.  But the Committee cannot put a one loss MSU above OSU considering the Buckeyes just beat them the week before.  And, it would be difficult for the committee to put a 2-loss Wolverine team above MSU.  So, Ohio State will probably be No. 5 or 6, MSU will be 8 or 9, and Michigan will be 9 or 10.

Under this scenario, Ohio State wins the tiebreaker and would represent the East in the B1G Championship against Iowa (likely), who may be undefeated themselves and ranked anywhere from No. 5 - 10.  If Ohio State beats a highly ranked Iowa in Indianapolis, it would be difficult for the Committee to keep the defending champs out of the 2nd CFP.

But wait!  What if Ohio State is No. 6, Michigan is No. 7, and Michigan State is No. 8 in the CFP poll after the B1G regular season?

Then you go to Step No. 6 - Best overall win percentage.   Ohio State and Michigan State will both be 11-1, while Michigan will be 10-2.   Michigan will be eliminated from consideration.  Head-to-head resolves the difference now and Ohio State's win over Sparty on Nov. 21 sends them to the Championship.

Penn State

“I see a red ‘Shoe and I want it painted black.”  I got to admit that I am excited at the prospects of seeing this on TV in a few days.  But while some are excited about the new black uniforms and the “Black Out” for this week, unfortunately there are many whose mood about the Buckeyes can best be described as “black.”  For those of you that still have angst about the manner in which our squad has achieved their 6-0 record, click here.

Yahoo Sports’ Pat Forde can say we are the worst first-half team of any season-long No. 1 team ever.   Jeff Sagarin can rate the Buckeyes as the 13^th best team.  Facebook can even have an anti-Ohio State page.   

None of that matters.  Survive and advance.  USC? Oregon?  Arizona State? Georgia? Auburn?  Thanks for playing.   You guys didn’t take care of business and now with six games left, the CFP isn’t even a topic of discussion.   Oh, and our schedule?  Sorry it’s backloaded.  Sorry Virginia Tech isn’t what they were when we scheduled them years ago.  Sorry Penn State could not beat Temple in Week One so that they would be undefeated, or that the random B1G draw put Northwestern on Michigan’s schedule and Illinois on ours.   If things stay close to what they are now, we will play a ranked team the last 5 games (MSU, UM, B1G championship, playoff semi, and playoff final).  You win those 5, haters can just shut up.

“But, John, we don’t look good.”  Yes, and No.   But things are starting to gel on offense now.  J.T. Barrett running the show in the red zone is a good thing.  I think he will eventually be the QB on a full-time basis.  But even if he isn’t, the offense is getting back on track.   No one was worried about our defense until the last two weeks.  But IU’ burned us with misdirection and a running QB.  So did Maryland.   PSU QB Christian Hackenberg, MSU QB Connor Cook, and UM QB Jake Ruddock are redwoods compared to what we’ve been dealing with.  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.   One game at a time.  Let the rest sort itself out.

In Ohio State-Penn State matchups, the higher ranked team has won 22 of the last 24 meetings.  Penn State beat us in 2008 (Terrelle Pryor’s freshman year) and 2011 (Luke Fickell as HC), but their trips to Columbus have usually ended in disaster.  24-6;  38-7;  28-9; 45-6;  13-7;  21-10;  28-6;  38-14;  and 63-14.  Do you notice a trend in the PSU scoring?   No more than 14 points in 9 games.  Even the two years they won they scored 13 and 20.  (Note – both years PSU was higher ranked than us too).  This year, the Nittany Lions bring in an offense that is 103^rd in the nation.  86^th in rushing, 99^th in passing, 92^nd in scoring, and 112^th in sacks allowed.   Hackenberg cannot and will not run to cause us problems.  Our D-Line will be pinning their ears back and going after him, while our LBs will be focusing on stopping the RBs.  Yes, their D has impressive statistics, but I think our offense is finally figuring stuff out.  Besides, in years past PSU has always had a good defense and yet we continually put 20, 30, 40 points on them.

But what does Vegas say?   Well, here’s where I find the most telling sign.  The oddsmakers listed the Buckeyes as 21 point favorites, but the public has bet that line down to 17.  So far this season the line has been going the other way and OSU ends up not covering.  The Bucks have 5 consecutive losses ATS.  In the first half of the year, everyone expected the Buckeyes to blow out all opponents, but the team “underperformed.”  Expectations are now reduced just when the Buckeyes are turning a corner.  If you imagine a graph, picture the lines for the expectation and performance reversing course.

Coach Franklin is doing well at State College, but he has a very poor record as a “big game” coach.  0-6 v. Top 10 and 1-10 v. Top 25.   Penn State’s program is 8-16 ATS as an away dog since 2002.   I think everyone is expecting a battle Saturday night.  I think this will be more like a Rhonda Rousey fight and come Sunday you are going to be singing this.  Or, maybe this.  Anyway, give the 17 and bet the over (48.5).  

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Penn State 14.  

Maryland

So, the 2015 offense is averaging the same yards per play as the 2014 offense, but the 2015 version has 5 more turnovers.   And the 2015 offense is only converting 37.5% of their red zone possessions into TDs (6-16), compared to 2014’s 75% (21-28).   So, I asked an expert his thoughts. 

Seriously, does anyone have a clue what is going to happen this weekend?   I know this – a few weeks ago we started discussing how this year’s Buckeyes were reminding us of last year’s Seminoles.   Then the national media finally caught up with our astute group and made the same comparisons.

Florida State was 3-11 ATS last year.  1-6 as a home favorite.  One difference between 2014 FSU and 2015 OSU is in the first 5 games FSU played much better teams than OSU.  The Seminoles were favored by MORE than 20 only twice, while the Buckeyes have been favored by LESS than 20 only once (-13.5 at Va. Tech).  FSU wasn’t supposed to be destroying teams and yet they still got dogged by the media for only winning by 6, 6, and 15, when they were favored by 18, 10, and 18.  As the season wore on, FSU’s lines decreased even more (5 of last 7 games the Seminoles were favored by 10 or less) yet they could only cover twice, so the problem wasn’t really overinflated lines created by Vegas.

Part of the Buckeyes’ problem is the Vegas lines.  We were supposed to blow out Hawaii, No. Illinois, Western Mich., and Indiana.   Average line:  OSU by 33.  Average margin of victory: OSU by 19.  Now, 19 point victories aren’t bad at all and certainly better than what FSU was doing last year.  However, you cannot cover 33 point lines when your offense is scoring 32 points per game.   At this point last season, our offense was cranking out point totals such as 66, 50, 52, and 56 in weeks 3-6.   Which leads us back to the question we’ve been asking ourselves for three weeks:  will this weekend be the weekend when the offense starts clicking on all cylinders?

Well, Maryland certainly does not appear to be a formidable opponent.   They gave up 48 at home to Bowling Green.  They lost 6-45 at West Virginia in their only road game so far.  They were shut out by Xichigan last week.   Senior QB Caleb Rowe (7) has thrown 7 picks in the last 2 weeks, and 12 picks in 4 games.  If he plays, that’s a sad sign for the Terrapins.   Maryland has great special teams players in K Brad Craddock (15) and returner William Likely, Jr. (4).  It’s likely that between Likely and Craddock, Maryland will score on us.  But not much.

Vegas has us as a 33.5 point favorite, with an over/under at 54.5.   As I said before, I’m no math major but in order for us to cover and keep the overall point total at 54, that means Vegas thinks Maryland won’t score much either.  I get the feeling that whichever way I decide to go, the opposite will happen.  I think the defense will keep Maryland to 10 points.  And I read how the offense is on the verge of breaking out.  This would certainly be the week.   Call me old-fashioned, but I cannot predict it until I see.  I think you take the Terps and the points.  Stay away from the o/u.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 35, Maryland 10

Indiana

I wonder if the Buckeye players feel this way.

4-0.  No. 1 in the nation.  And yet I polled some Ohio State fans on how they feel about the season so far.  Here are the results.

But nothing gets the blood boiling and the nerve ends tingling like . . . Indiana?  The Hoosiers are 12-70-5 against the Buckeyes.  That’s a .167 winning percentage.  The Buckeyes have won 20 straight with IU’s last win being 1988.  Sure, there have been some closer games, like last year’s 42-27 or 2012’s 52-49.   But a closer look reveals that last year we turned a 14-20 deficit into a 42-20 lead in about a quarter.  The game in Bloomington we actually led 52-34 with two minutes left.  So, even the close games aren’t that close.

Could this Indiana be different?  They are a top the B1G in Total Offense and Scoring Offense.  And they are on a 5-game win streak.  This is the first time since 1942 that both Ohio State and Indiana have been undefeated entering the game.

But, Indiana is also dead last in Total Defense and 12^th in the conference in Scoring Defense.  You can really slice through them via the air, so it is imperative that Cardale have a decent game.  BTW, the Hoosiers are 0-15 against No. 1 teams including 0-5 v. the Bucks when we are top ranked.

One important fact to note from the IU Athletic office:  • IU’s staff and players will “go pink” in support of breast cancer awareness. 

Vegas has us as a 21 point favorite with the over/under at 67.  The Buckeyes are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 on the over, usually not coming close.  Indiana is the opposite 3-1 ATS and 4-0 on the over.  A lovely day in the mid-50s with occasional rain is in the forecast.  IU was 2-10 ATS off a S/U win, but after 3 straight they are now 5-10.  Coach Kevin Wilson is 6-6 ATS as a home dog, which doesn’t help me at all.  The only stat that really jumps out at me is that IU has covered in the last 4 meetings with the Buckeyes.   That stat, along with IU being 3-0 after a S/U, and 3-1 ATS this year, and the Buckeyes poor performances seems to be pointing toward taking the Hoosiers and the points.

Well, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QHHGHve_N0

I think getting out of Columbus gets the Buckeyes more focused and they will be sharper.  I think our defense controls IU and they will allow us to make big plays.  Weather won’t be a big deal.   Zeke will.  Give the points, take the under.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 44, Indiana 17.

Year to date:  3-1 ATS; 1-3 on over/under

Western Michigan

So what will happen on Saturday?  Let me bring in my spokesman to clarify what will happen.

Known Knowns – Hey.  The Silver Bullets are pretty good.  No. 5 in Total Defense.  No. 5 in passing yards allowed.  No. 4 in pass efficiency defense.   No. 11 in scoring defense.  And we have not allowed a rush of 20 yards or more – 1 of 4 teams to have that distinction.  We also know these people will be awesome.

Known Unknowns – How will this guy perform (especially on this diet?):

Cardale Jones ‏@CJ12_  Sep 16

Honestly, all I ate today was two chocolate chip cookies and five peanut butter cookies

More

Will the slobs block?  Will Zeke get the 20-25 carries we all think he needs?  Will you be satisfied with this person as your sideline reporter for the game?

Unknown Unknowns – Well, I don’t know what I don’t know.

This is the first time TOSU and WMU have hooked up.  The Broncos have almost completed their goal of losing to every B1G team having gone 0-13 over the past 7 seasons to 9 different teams.  (After Saturday, only Penn State, Wisconsin, Rutgers & Maryland remain).  They do have former OSU Grad Asst and reigning MAC Coach of the Year PJ Fleck on the sidelines.  They also return 6 All-Mac offensive players as well as 2014 MAC’s Offensive player of the year and Freshman of the Year, Jarvion Franklin.  And their QB has thrown for over 300+ yards in each of the first three games.  So, their offense is supposed to be pretty good and you will undoubtedly hear this a few times on Saturday.

As for their defense . . . well . . . let’s just say they are not proficient in stopping . . . anyone.  The Broncos are giving up 225 yards/game on the ground, and they have surrendered 10 rushing TDs in 3 games.  Their passing defense stats are acceptable, but probably only because it is so easy (in theory) to run on them.  

The line opened up at -28, but it is now up to -31.5, with the over/under at 61.   The money seems to indicate that bettors believe the Buckeyes will get their offense woes ironed out.  If there ever was a time to get our act together, it would be this week.  This is not a stout defense with an All-American DB.  The Buckeyes SHOULD be able to move the ball down the field rather easily even with the Broncos stacking the box waiting for the run.  However, WMU has one of the best offenses in the MAC and did put 24 up on MSU.  I don’t think we completely stop them – just slow them down (and then they should sound like this – by the way, is it just me or does this guy look like our own Don Powell with shaggy hair?)

Buckeyes are 1-2 ATS and WMU is 2-1.   The Bronocos are also a very nice 8-3 as an away dog over the past 2+ seasons.  Our offense is not gelling.  Even if they were, I think I would still advise you to take points, but bet the over.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Western Michigan  24.

Northern Illinois

Sorry I’m a bit late with this but I’ve been at the Happiest Place on Earth.  No, not here.  I meant here.

In my rush to pack, get the dogs to the new kennel, and mow my yard, I forgot to set the DVR for Hawaii.  So, I missed watching the game, but followed the action via ESPN GameCast while stuck in line at Aerosmith’s Rock and Roller Coaster.   What I cannot understand is that we seemed to dominate the game statistically for the first 3 quarters, but could not score.  So, maybe conventional wisdom was right – maybe the players were groggy from the short week and had a VT hangover.   They still almost covered though and pitched a shutout.

So, do we overreact and think that this year’s Buckeye team is last year’s FSU?  A team that has superior talent but struggles every week to find their mojo and a way to win?  Or, does Urban Meyer kick this team’s collective a—and get the boys in the right frame of mind this week?

Northern Illinois has only played TOSU once before and that was in 2006 when we were No. 1.  I didn’t remember that we got up 28-0 early in that game.  What I remember was this on the 2^nd play of the game.  We ended up winning 35-12 and covered the 17 point spread, but RB Garrett Wolfe ran for 171 and caught 5 passes for 114 more.  He was scary and actually led 1-A football in rushing that year.   Fortunately, he graduated and they don’t have anyone nearly as talented.  What they have been is consistently good.  The Huskies have won 5 straight MAC West titles and have been either 12-2 or 11-3 in each of the last 5 years.   And thanks to this man, we all know how good the MAC is.

NIU is only 5-21 in road openers, but have won 3 straight including two against Iowa and Northwestern.   The Buckeyes are 67-1 at home against unranked non-conference opponents.    The current line is OSU by 34.5 with an over/under of 67.   Normally, I’d say that Urban gets the boys ready to play and we post 55 or so and win by 40.   However, T-storms are scheduled to run through Columbus just about kickoff.  I think that holds us back a bit.  Also, I’m not sure how Urban feels about our FG kicker so we may eschew a 3-point attempt and go for it again on 4^th in Husky territory, which may not be successful.  Northern Illinois will grind it out on the ground shortening the game as well.  So, I’m suggesting you take NIU and the points, and bet the under.   

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Northern Illinois 17.

Hawaii

Are you ready for some haka?  

The Rainbows come to Ohio Stadium Saturday to play on national television (Big Ten Network) and collect a check for $1.2 million.  With a round trip being 9,020 miles, that’s $133/mile (in case you were curious).  Hawai’i needs that sizeable check because the athletic department ran a $2.1 million deficit in 2013.   Hawai’i will play Wisconsin at Camp Randall in 2 weeks and should receive another $1 million.

There is no real risk of Ohio State losing Saturday.  The Rainbows are 1-6 in games played in the Eastern Time Zone (it will be a 9:30 a.m. local time start for them).   Hawai’i is 0-3 v. No. 1 ranked teams – losing by an average of 53-10, and are a pathetic 19-52-2 in nationally televised games.  Recent history has not been kind as they have lost 9 straight non-conference road games.

They do have Max Wittek at QB though.   I know what you are thinking.   Wittek was a 5-star recruit who won the backup job at USC behind Matt Barkley.  However, Wittek eventually got beat out by Cody Kessler during his Sophomore year and decided to transfer.   So, while he has talent, he still plays for Hawai’i. 

The line started at -38 but is now up to -40, with the over/under being 59.5.  We all remember the 2^nd game blues under the Tressel/Fickell years (2003 – San Diego State; 2004 – Marshall; 2007 – Akron; 2008 – Ohio; and 2011 – Toledo).  In each the Buckeyes were favored by huge margins, but instead had to eek out victories.   Tressel was 7-7 ATS v. Non-conference opponents when Ohio State was a 25+ favorite.   Meyer is already 4-2.  However, with the big game Monday night, the late return to Columbus (Cardale tweeted at 3:41 a.m. that they were back) and the short turnaround, this sets up to be a game that is closer than anticipated.

Don’t.  You. Believe. It.

While the Tech win was great, there was plenty to improve upon.  The coaches will be all over the players this week to make that improvement.  If this was a sleepy Noon kickoff, I might feel differently, but it’s at 3:30.  Oh, did I mention that Bosa, Wilson, Marshall, and Smith finally get to play?  Think they are itching to get out there?   And I think there was a steeper talent drop off in the Tressel years than now.  When Cardale exits and Barrett comes on, J.T. is not going to just hand the ball off.  We are going to run the same offense whether its Cardale, Zeke, Marshall, Braxton, and Thomas, or it Barrett, Samuel, Dunn/Ball/Weber, Smith, and Wilson.  How are we not going to score?  And often?

I had a vision that the next several weeks [read: Nine] the AVERAGE score was going to be 56-14.   Too many weapons on offense against a defense that Phil Steele has rated as one of the worst in the Mountain West Conference.  Big days all around. “You get a touchdown!  You get a touchdown!  Everybody gets a touchdown!”   Give the points and Ohio State takes care of the over/under by itself.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 66, Hawai’i 7.

Virginia Tech

Let me start the season off with this message for any of you returning to this blog: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PirVtiJuvDs

And a hearty welcome for any newbies to the site. 

So, basically, each week I will tell you that Ohio State will win each game by 20+ points on our inevitable march to the National Championship, right?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdoOaDmFuO0’

Va. Tech’s Lane Stadium is an intimidating place to play.  Coach Frank Beamer is 134-39-1 there and the Hokies are 18-1 in their last 19 home openers.  Oh yeah, and they did this to us last year. Tech has 16 returning starters, listed just outside the Top 25, and we are playing without suspended starters Joey Bosa, Corey Smith, Dontre Wilson, and Jalin Marshall, as well as injured 2^nd string WR Noah Brown.  Suffice to say:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBknAcTaMiI

Should you be concerned?  Yes, you should be.  Should you remove all sharp objects from your home?  No.  Let’s start with Lane Stadium shall we?  Yes, Beamer’s win total there is impressive, but the Hokies are 7-6 at home the last 2 years.  They have lost at least one home game in 14 of the last 15 seasons.  Conversely, the Buckeyes have lost only 6 times in 9 years at the Shoe.  Lane Stadium as an impenetrable fortress is a myth.

As for Virginia Tech’s 16 returning starters, that was from a 7-6 team.  We have 14 starters returning from a 14-1 team.  Essentially, the same two teams that lined up last year are lining up again.  “But they beat us,” you say.  So they did.  However, it is not like they dominated us in every aspect of the game.   We outgained them, the turnover battle was a draw, we missed two FGs in the first half, and yet it was still 21-21 in the 4^th.   The difference in the game was that our brand new O-line had not yet gelled and our new Redshirt Freshman QB was still learning on the job.   Those two factors were completely different by November 1, and the Hokies will not see the same thing this time.

I respect Frank Beamer and his DC Bud Foster.  I really do.  But Nick Saban had a month to prepare for us and we beat ‘Bama.   We’ve had a year to digest film of the Va. Tech loss and I think we will be ready.   I think J.T. Barrett should get the start because I think the offense works best with him, and I think he will be best prepared to handle whatever new wrinkles the Hokies have in store.  Then again, 12 Gauge (Cardale Jones) beat ‘Bama, so he could do it as well.  Tech’s defense will be good.  Very good.  But their offense is still trying to sort it all out.  To beat the Buckeyes (especially the Buckeyes as they currently exist) you need to score 40.  Am I wrong about that?

This will mark the 4^th time in the last 7 years that Virginia Tech opens with a top 5 team.   They lost all 3 prior meetings, two of them at home.  Ohio State is currently favored by 12.   Tech has been a big dog (double digits) only 4 times in the past 15 years.  They are 1-3 S/U in those games.   And here’s a little known fact:  in 2013, Va. Tech went on the road and beat East Carolina, Miami, and Georgia Tech, but in 2014, those same three teams won the rematch in Lane Stadium.   Add to that the fact that since 2010, Ohio State is 8-0 seeking revenge from the previous season loss, and wins those rematches by an average of 14 ppg. Proof.

The first game of the year is always difficult to predict.  I think the first 3 quarters will be close.  But I think where they dominated the 4^th quarter last year, we will dominate this year.  This time, the last two touchdowns go to us and we pull away to a solid, workmanlike win.

Schaef Says:  Ohio State 34, Va. Tech 17

2015 Kentucky Derby: A Tale of Two Trainers

            The 141^st run for the roses will once again feature a full field of 20 three-year-olds gunning for racing immortality.  However, this year’s version of the Kentucky Derby will feature two of the best trainers in the business essentially going head-to-head.

            Bob Baffert, with his noticeable white hair and dark sunglasses, has been a Derby fixture ever since he burst on the scene in 1996 when his Cavonnier lost a photo finish to D. Wayne Lukas’ Grindstone.  At the time, Lukas was the king of thoroughbred trainers with Grindstone giving him his third Derby and ninth Triple Crown victory.  Baffert paid his dues in the much less glamorous world of Quarter Horse racing during the 1980s and early 90s.  Eighteen years younger than Lukas, he was seen as the young upstart challenging Lukas’ dominance.  Baffert quickly succeeded as witnessed by his near Triple Crown misses with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, and War Emblem in 2002.   Since then, Baffert has sent a number of high profile contenders to Louisville, including Pioneerof the Nile, Lookin At Lucky, Bodemeister, and Chitu.  But it has been 13 years since he has won at Louisville and only one other trainer, Carl Nofzger, won another Derby after such a long span (17 years).

            This year, Baffert has his best shot at returning to the Winner’s Circle with American Pharoah (intentionally spelled this way and not “Pharaoh”), who is the early favorite to win.  Pharoah is the son of Pioneerof the Nile, who finished 2^nd in the 2009 Derby to Mind That Bird, and he has been extremely impressive in his path to the Derby.  He has won his last 4 races with relative ease, including an 8 length romp in the Arkansas Derby three weeks ago.  Pharoah is not padding his record on weaker competition as those four wins came in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes races.  He appears to be sharp as his last two workouts have earned a “bullet,” meaning he was the fastest horse to train at that distance that day.  Jockey Victor Espinoza, who won last year’s Derby on California Chrome, will ride Pharoah on Saturday, which only adds to this colt’s impressive statistics.  In any other year, American Pharoah would be the overwhelming favorite.

            But this is not an average year for the Derby, or for Baffert, as he will also saddle the likely second choice, Dortmund.  Named for the German football (soccer) team, Dortmund is the son of 2008 Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown, and has put together his own impressive resume.   Dortmund is unbeaten in six career starts, including the Santa Anita Derby and one win at Churchill Downs last November.  As the track is sometimes unfriendly to first-time racers, Dortmund’s success over this course gives him an advantage.  Jockey Martin Garcia will be aboard and he won the 2010 Preakness with Baffert’s Lookin At Lucky.

            But this article is not about the two favorite horses, but rather two trainers.  The other is Todd Pletcher, who was Lukas’ top assistant in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and helped Lukas establish his lofty status.  Pletcher set out on his own while Baffert’s horses were dominating the Triple Crown in the late 1990s and early 2000s.  But history tends to repeat itself, and Pletcher, thirteen years younger, was threatening to knock off Baffert as thoroughbred racing’s top trainer.  Pletcher topped the purse money winnings in 2004, 2005, and 2006.  In 2007, Pletcher sent a record five horses to the Derby.  He won four straight Eclipse Awards as top trainer from 2004-2007.  Yet, despite his success with other races and other tracks, Pletcher did not win a Derby until 2010 with Street Sense.  As with other sports, to be considered truly “great,” you must win multiple times.  Even though Pletcher has sent a number of horses to the post since, including another five in 2013, he has not managed to get that elusive second win.  Known as “the best in the business except for the first Saturday in May,” Pletcher wants to and needs to improve on his 1 for 40 record.

            This year, Pletcher’s bringing four more colts to Louisville, but his top entrant is Carpe Diem, winner of 4 of 5 career starts.  His only non-win was a second in last fall’s Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  Most recently, Carpe Diem won the Blue Grass Stakes at nearby Keeneland and will be ridden by 2011 Derby winner John Velasquez, who has been on Carpe Diem in all of his starts.  The only bad news for the horse is that he drew the suboptimal post position number 2.  He will likely have to use some of his speed to avoid getting pinned on the rail by the eighteen other horses on his right.  He has also had some gate problems, and he will be in the starting gate a long time while the other horses load.

            Pletcher is also bringing Materiality, winner of the prestigious Florida Derby.  Materiality is the son of 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner, Afleet Alex.  He has won all three of his career starts, but unlike every other horse entered, Materiality did not race at age 2.  He will be trying to break one of the Derby’s oldest jinxes as no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing at 2.  Jockey John Velasquez has ridden Materiality for all of his starts, but since he is going to ride Carpe Diem, Javier Castellano will get the call.  While Castellano has been in almost every Derby since 2005, his best finishes are one fourth and a seventh.

            To be sure, some other horse and trainer may win, but it is much more likely that one of these four will receive the blanket of roses on Saturday evening.  If it is American Pharoah or Dortmund, it will mark the return to the top for Bob Baffert with his fourth Derby win, and it will end his 13 year drought.   However, if it is Carpe Diem or Materiality, it will be the elusive second Derby for Todd Pletcher, and he can toss aside the unflattering nicknames and labels.

            American Pharoah, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, and Materiality all like to be near the lead, so when they turn for home it is quite possible they could be side-by-side.  As for me, I’ve always been a fan of Baffert, I loved Big Brown, and I follow soccer very closely.  So I have to go with Dortmund, who will edge out Pharoah, by a nose.