Xichigan

Three things I know:  (1) I am thankful for my family, my general physical and mental health, and you guys;  (2) holiday air travel is too crowded and very expensive, but I’m doing it anyway; and (3) I cannot predict an Ohio State – Michigan game accurately to save my life.

How about my low scoring affair between No. 1 & No. 2?  Nope.  Largest point total ever (until 2013).   How about my blowout between undefeated Buckeyes and offensively challenged Wolverines?  Nope. One point squeaker while making Devin Gardner look like the next Drew Brees.

Michigan is 1-3 both S/U and ATS away from Ann Arbor.  They are 0-3 S/U and 1-2 ATS as Road Dog.  And against ranked teams this year, Michigan is 0-2 S/U and ATS.  The Maize & Blue have scored 45 points in 4 road games while giving up 101.   Their offense is 113^th in passing, 114^th in Total Offense, and 111^th in scoring.   They are 119^th in turnover margin, 107^th in Net Punting, and 106^th in First Downs.   Their coach appears to be a lame duck and they are not guaranteed of a bowl game.   Not surprising, Vegas has the Buckeyes favored by 21.   Wow!  It looks like I just typed twenty-one.  Let me look at that again.  Holy crap!  It is 21.  AND YET, get this, the over/under is 41.5.   I dare you, I double dare you, to find another line like that.   Vegas is basically saying, one team will score a bunch and the other team not so much. (A bit of perspective, during the 2 years The Game was played in Columbus in the Tressel v. Rich Rod era, the Buckeyes were favored by 17 in 2010, and 20 in 2008 – a year in which Michigan went 3-9).

Pencil in a 31-7 Buckeye victory?  Not so fast my friend.  Michigan is playing for pride – just like last year and see how close that turned out.  They are playing for a bowl invitation.  They are playing for Hoke – make fun of him all you want – but that guy is a class act.   Remember the Buckeye fan who named his cancer “Michigan”?  Hoke invited the kid and his family up last year’s game and gave the HIS TICKETS and visited with them on the field before kickoff.  He’s a good man.   I’d like him to stay.  But unless he beats “Ohio” and wins a bowl game . . .

Those Michigan stats?   Wolverines are 9^th in rushing defense, 9^th in total defense, 21^st is scoring defense, 13^th in first downs allowed, 2^nd in fewest penalties per game, and 5^th in fewest penalty yards per game.   Michigan’s offense may suck, but their defense is going to make you earn your victory.

Ohio State is a young team (more bad news for the Maize & Blue).  I can see us coming out a little too pumped up.  J.T. Barrett’s first few passes sail over the heads of his receivers.   A couple of defenders hit a guy a second after the whistle and there is some drive sustaining yellow laundry.  Next thing you know, it’s the middle of the 2^nd quarter and it is a tight game.  Then the kids get tighter, Michigan gets confident, and Urban Meyer gets more gray hairs.

This is the Devin Gardner I want to see.  And I think I will see something like this once or twice.  But I’m also going to see Devin Funchess in the end zone once or twice too, and I’m going to hear this more than I want to.  But, in the end, the Buckeyes will have too many weapons and enough answers to solve the Hoke-Gardner conundrum.   If I was a betting man – and hey, look at that, I am – I would take Michigan and the points and bet the over.   (Probably just guaranteed 30-0 Buckeye victory.  And if I did, bully for me).

Until next week . . . I leave you with this.   Go Bucks!  O – H!!

Indiana

Sigh.   How can we get excited about a game against a school whose fight song says:

“Indiana, oh Indiana

Indiana, we’re not Purdue,

Indiana, oh Indiana

We suck so bad we’ll lose to you.”

Don’t believe me?   Click here. (And pay close attention to the directions on how to make the “I” then “U” symbols with your arms).  Side note – I got accepted to IU’s law school and gave very serious consideration to going there.   God, I’m glad I didn’t.  Double sided note – I dislike Tom Crean.  Immensely. But I digress.

Remember when IU went into Columbia and upset No. 18 Missouri?   Yeah, neither do I.  But apparently they did and it was good for the B1G.   Well, apparently they had Nate Sudfeld at QB then, but he went down with an injury in the Iowa game and they’ve lost 5 straight and been outscored 193-86.   During that time they’ve lost to offensive juggernauts like Rutgers, Penn State, and that team up North.  Please re-read that last sentence again.

And our history against Indiana – well I’ve put together a video of highlights from past games for you.   We are 69-12-5 against the Hoosiers.   We’ve won 19 consecutive matchups.  Aside from that nightmare stretch in 1987-1988, you have to go back to 1951 to find another Indiana victory.  And Indiana comes into this matchup with some astounding statistics – 116^th in passing offense, 101^st in passing defense, 88^th in scoring offense, 104^th in scoring defense, 107^th in turnover margin, 120^th in 3^rd down offense, 125^th in red zone defense, 104^th in fewest penalty yards – I could go on. . . there are more bad stats.    After giving it some serious thought, I cannot come up with a key play from any Indiana game, let alone a key game in the series.   I did find this though (go to 54:00 exactly).

Last year, the Buckeyes won 42-14 in the cold and snow.   Both our offense and defense are better than last year.  Unfortunately, tomorrow is supposed to be mid-40s and showers, which may slow down our passing game, and Indiana does have a decent RB.  The line is Ohio State -34.5 with an over/under of 64.5.  Since Sudfeld went down, Indiana only covered once (barely against Penn State) and the rest of the games have not been close.  The Hoosiers inability to score also means the under isn’t a bad play.

The Buckeyes will not lose focus – not sitting at No. 6 in the latest poll and not with style points being critical.   That being said, look for most starters to be pulled early in the 3^rd quarter to save them for scUM and the B1G Championship.  I think I’ll take Indiana and the points and the under, just because the Hoosiers will get a late score against our 4^th team defense.   I also think we will rush for nearly 400 yards and the game will be a quicker one. 

Schaef says:  Ohio State 42, Indiana 13. 

Minnesota

When I think about playing the Gophers this week,  the first thing that comes to mind is this.

Really, there’s not a lot of recent history with this team.  I mean, the last time we played Minnesota was 2 head coaches again, 2 QBs ago, and I think the second year of TCF Bank Stadium.  Of the “traditional” B1G teams, we’ve only played MSU less times than the Gophers.  What history there is – well, it’s not pretty for Minnesota. The Buckeyes have won virtually every matchup (including all of them in Minneapolis) since 1981.   That’s 23 of the last 24 (the exception being Glen Mason’s upset of the No. 5 Buckeyes in 2000 -Cooper’s last year).   Ohio State is 43-7 in the 50 matchups, an .860 winning percentage.   Let’s put it another way – if you go back 110 years and take ALL the teams we’ve played at least 10 times in our history, the Buckeyes have a better winning percentage against only one other team . . . Indiana.  In case I’m not making my point clear, when Minnesota plays Ohio State, this is usually what happens to the Gophers’ hopes of victory.

This year may be different though.  Minnesota is 7-2 and just blew out a decent Iowa team.  They are ranked No. 25 by the College Football Committee.  And we get the Gophers after an emotional win v. Sparty.  At 11:00 a.m. CST.  In snow.  (Did you know – Minnesota is 8-2 in their last ten 11:00 a.m. starts?)

Here’s what you need to know about the Gophers – they play from ahead.   They get down early, it’s tough for them to come back because they have the 120^th ranked passing offense in the nation (in fairness, they did come back from deficits v. Illinois – LOSS, and Purdue – WIN, but those were against Illinois, and Purdue).   They are not going to methodically drive down the field either, as they are 104^th in first downs.  What they are going to do is play good defense and not make any mistakes.  They will wait for you to make them then capitalize.  If they get up early, they are going to go all Rowdy Roddy Piper on us and put us in the sleeper hold.  We will wake up on the bus to the airport with a loss wondering what happened to us.

The line is currently Ohio State -14 with the over/under at 56.5.   I’m scared about a letdown.  I’m concerned about the weather.  I am concerned about the Gophers.   On the other hand we are rolling.   We got mo.   And maybe the Gophers are hungover from last week’s big win in the Floyd of Rosedale game.  And in looking at Minnesota’s schedule, there’s not a lot of tough wins out there – save Iowa.  I’m going to say we don’t let them get the early lead and we continue our offensive prowess.   I will even predict that the Buckeyes cover – barely - in a 35-20 final.  And I guess I’m taking the under.

Michigan State

First, some fun.  This never gets old.  Ever.

Anyway . . . so this is what is it (supposedly) like in the SEC every week, huh?  The de facto B1G championship game in Week 9 in East Lansing.  Sparty looks impressive, but let’s take a closer look.   MSU has defeated Nebraska, and lost at Oregon.  Excluding FCS Jacksonville State, Sparty’s other 5 FBS opponents are a combined 16-28 with none being over .500 and none of them will probably go bowling (yeah, that includes you Michigan).   Meanwhile, OSU has lost to Va. Tech, and excluding Kent State (essentially an FCS team), the rest of the Buckeyes’ opponents are 28-28.  I would not be surprised if 5 or 6 of them end up in a bowl.   So, yes, MSU has some pretty gaudy statistics, but have they beefed up that resume on a schedule that is weaker than the Buckeyes?

The Answer:  No.   And who cares?   Schedule aside, Michigan State is pretty awesome.    If they are properly motivated, I would put them up with any team in the country.   And they should be motivated for Saturday’s tussle.  Yet, here’s a nugget or two for you:  Ohio State is 28-14 v. MSU, including 14-5 in East Lansing.  Dantonio is 2-3 v. the Buckeyes, but 0-2 at home.   In 2012, No. 14 Ohio State beat No. 20 MSU 17-16. (the play you remember is at the 2:30 mark). So what was the difference in us winning away in 2012 but losing 34-24 in Indianapolis last year?   I don’t think it was poor coverage by our secondary or poor tackling by our defense.  Rather it was third down conversions.

In 2012, the Buckeyes were 6-13 on 3^rd downs (with the last one being a knee at the end of the game).   Only one play was a run for Carlos Hyde.  All the other attempts were Braxton Miller runs or throws to Philly Brown.  Distance did not matter.   We converted, kept the ball, improved field position, and eventually won.  MSU figured that out last year as we went 1-10 on 3^rd downs in the championship game.  The only one we converted was a Carlos Hyde run.  The other 9 attempts were Braxton runs or incomplete passes.   Distance didn’t matter as we could not convert even short yardage situations.  MSU was not going to let Braxton beat us, but our offense did not adjust to try something different, like, I don’t know, perhaps giving Carlos Hyde the ball on 3^rd down.

Let’s pause for you to admire the gift/curse that is Arianna Grande.  Unless you are a dog whose ears bleed when she sings. (2:30 here).  If all this is lost on you, my apologies.

Back to Braxton.  He’ll be in a warm-up suit on the sidelines.  Meanwhile, MSU has had 2 weeks to game plan for J.T. Barrett and had the benefit of seeing how Va. Tech and Penn State frustrated him/us.  Our offensive staff must design a game plan to add protection for Barrett, especially on 3^rd down.  Also, if MSU keys on Barrett running on 3^rd down, we need to give them a steady diet of Elliott and Samuel.  If the Buckeyes can do a half-decent job on 3^rd downs (or not even get into a 3^rd down situation on offense) they can win this game.

ESPN Game Day will be there and one positive is that Michigan State is 2-4 when Game Day comes to East Lansing.  Another positive is that for MSU’s gaudy stats noted above, Ohio State’s stats in all categories actually match up nicely with MSU’s.  (page 2 on link).    I was sure this was going to be a 10-14 point win for Michigan State, and I thought that Vegas would put the line at OSU +6 and it would be easy money for you.   Well, the Vegas line is OSU +3.5, which instead of investing my son’s college tuition on MSU, instead causes me some pause.  Have I gone too far in my pessimism?  Are the Buckeyes better than I think and is Michigan State not so great?  . . . Nah!  Our New Year’s Eve Peach Bowl invite v. Notre Dame will get engraved at about 11:45 p.m. Saturday night.  Take the Spartans and give the points, and bet the under (57.5).

Schaef says:  Michigan State 31, Ohio State 21.

Illinois

Why bother?  I mean, not this blog/e-mail/chat.  I appreciate those of you who read this and actually look forward to it.  I even appreciate those of you who delete it as soon as it hits your inbox. 

No, I’m talking about Ohio State’s season in general.   I have seen a vision of the remainder of the season and it depresses me.  I see it as plain as the graying man-stache that lays just north of Mike Bonfiglio’s upper lip (inside joke - sorry).  The bleakness of the future is causing me to drink.  Well, not “causing” me if you want to be technical about it, but causing me in so much as adding to the reasons I drink.  I believe the Ohio State season currently checks in as Reason No. 43, but I digress.

Let’s discuss Illinois, briefly, shall we?  With a win on Saturday, The Ohio State University will tie the record for consecutive B1G victories with 20 – held by The Ohio State University.  The teams from 2005-2007 set the mark, only to have the streaked broken by . . . Illinois.  Go here to have the lime juice poured into your paper cut.  That was Illinois’ last win in the series.  Of course, each of their last 5 wins in the series have come in Columbus.   This was not one of them. (Go to the 14:50 mark to see someone lose a shoe.  P.S. You can hear my cheers in the background if you listening closely enough).   But this is not your Mike White Illini.   This is your Tim Beckman version, which is to say it is sort of like the Mike White version, except not as good.  Or, just not good.  At all.  10-22 overall and 2-18 in the conference says a lot.

“But,” you say, “they beat Minnesota last week!”   And Virginia Tech was once 2-0 and ranked No. 17.  Anomalies happen.   Look – Illinois has trailed after 3 quarters in every game this year.  EVERY GAME!  Let me tell you who was on Illinois’ schedule:  Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, Texas State, Washington, Purdue, and several other B1G teams – none of whom have been Ohio State or Michigan State.   Now, granted, in four of these games Illinois was able to come back.  At home, in the cozy, wind-blown confines of Memorial Stadium.  On the road?  Yeah . . .  not so much.

Illinois does have a “big play” offense in that they are 17^th in the nation in plays of 20 yards or greater (I cannot verify this stat anywhere so I will trust the University’s athletic department on this one).  They are No. 1 in the Big Ten in passing offense, and No. 8 in Net Punting.  Here are the other categories in which Illinois is highly ranked.     On defense, they resemble the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Let me put it this way – in the last two games in the series, Urban’s teams have scored 52 and 60 points.   I think it is safe to say that no matter how bad the weather is Saturday night, we will score between 52 and 60 on Illinois.

Unlike Penn State, Ohio State will be able to step on the throat of Illinois so that this does not became another game that elevates my blood pressure and ages me 10 years.   And for those of you scoring at home, I will be in attendance on Saturday.   The Buckeyes are 12-1 in the last 13 I have attended (the only blemish was a 17-20 loss v. Wisconsin in 2001, Tressel’s first year).   My 29-5 overall record at the Shoe includes 2 wins over Illinois.    Vegas has the Buckeyes as a 28-point favorite.  A little math here:  56 – 28 = 28.  Illinois won’t score 28, so take the Buckeyes and give the points.  Unless the over is 72, bet the over.

As for the rest of the season, if you want to know, read on.  If not, see you next week.  Maybe.

MSU’s defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, is the best college assistant coach in the country.  He has two weeks to game plan for us, and he has the Va. Tech and Penn State tapes.   I’m guessing that Vegas will make us a 6 point dog.   MSU will beat us by at least 10, maybe 14.   It will be easy money.

We will take care of Minnesota by 10 on the road, and Indiana by about 20 the next week.  Michigan will come in trying to win for Brady Hoke’s last game, but we should beat them by 14-17.  

We end the season 10-2 and we will be off to a New Year’s Day bowl in Florida – Citrus or Outback most likely.   We will get matched up against the 4^th or 5^th team from the SEC, which will probably be someone like Ole Miss.  Ole Miss’ defense is every bit as good as MSU’s, and better than Va. Tech’s or Penn State’s.   You get where I’m going with this.  So, 10-3 with no quality wins (except the annual pummeling of UM).  It will be a disappointing ending to a hollow year, I’m afraid.  But, I will still cheer like crazy for the “Eleven warriors brave and bold.”  Go Bucks!

Penn State

When I was much, much younger, without my parents’ knowledge, I sent my penny into the Columbia Record House and received 11 vinyl albums in return (and obligated my parents to buy 8 more at “regular club prices” over the next 3 years).   Along with Bachman-Turner-Overdrive, Elton John, and other rock/semi-rock acts, I also purchased “Serenade” by Neil Diamond.   I think I played “Longfellow Serenade” over 1,000 times.  However, I discovered that at school no one else was listening to Neil Diamond – or they would not admit to it.  So, I jumped off the bandwagon but continued to follow his career from afar.   And Neil cranked out the hits for the remainder of the 70s and 80s.   Then, after a dip in his popularity, he saw a resurgence in his popularity in the mid-90s and early 2000s.   Sports teams played “Sweet Caroline” during or after games.  He was on “New Year’s Rockin’ Eve” and “American Idol.”  But for the past few years, I have not seen him and not heard from him - until this morning when I learned that Sirius/XM channel 147 has become (temporarily) the Neil Diamond Channel.  I drove into the parking lot listening to the end of “September Morn” live in concert in 1992.

Penn State reminds me a lot of Neil Diamond.  About the time I was buying “Serenade” Woody Hayes and Joe Paterno met in back-to-back years in a home-and-home series.  Both times the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions were ranked in the AP top 7.  Both times it was a low scoring affair, and Woody emerged victorious twice.   Penn State was the epitome of uncool with their name-less jerseys and black high tops.  Since they weren’t in the B1G, I followed them from afar.  They stayed relevant during the 80s (with two mythical National Championships – including a Luke Skywalker blowing up the Death Star moment in the 1987 Fiesta Bowl – go to 10:35 mark here).  Then they were down, bounced back a little in the mid-2000s, but since then have been an afterthought.  Yes, they beat us three years ago during the Fickell era, but I treat that as an aberration.  I haven’t given Penn State much thought until this morning.

I am ready to say that the Ohio State offense and QB J.T. Barrett are very, very good . . . against bad defenses.   Next week against Illinois, we will again top 50 points and 500 yards.   Unfortunately, Penn State is not a bad defense.  In fact, quite the opposite.  The Nittany Lions are No. 1 in the nation in Rushing Defense, No. 6 in Total defense, and No. 6 in Scoring defense.  On the surface, those statistics seem fairly imposing.   But digging deeper we find that Penn State only allowed Rutgers to score 10 points.  We gave up 17.    They limited Michigan to 18 points, but UM is, well, um, bad, and for most of the 2^nd half had to play their 3^rd string QB, so . . . whatever. 

On the flip side, Penn State’s offense is bad.   Very bad.  As a colleague of mine noted, QB Christian Hackenberg has not just taken a step back this year, he’s taken 5 steps back.   Remember how bad Barrett was against VT in his 2^nd game?  Barrett had a QBR of 26.7.  That’s pretty darn low.  Hackenberg has had 3 QBR ratings equal to or worse so far this year!  Maybe the problem is their No. 118 rushing offense not giving him any support.  Maybe it’s their punting game, which is also 118^th in the nation, never giving him field position.   Or maybe it’s just that Hackenberg has regressed.  He has thrown for 1 TD in the past 4 games.   One.   From my view he seems well-positioned to carry on the tradition of “Pick Six University” (history here and here).

State College is no longer a scary place to play.   Ohio State has won 4 of the last 5 and beaten PSU when ranked and unranked.   The Buckeyes have won the last 3 by an average of 16 ppg.  The line is currently at -13.5 with the Over/under at 51.   The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS and 5-1 on the over, while PSU is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 with the under being the play in 4 of their last 5.   The higher ranked team has won 21 of the last 23 matchups, and the Nittany Lions are 3-11 v. ranked opponents since 2010.  At night, on the road, against a pretty good (ranked) defense, you think I should be conservative and take the points.   But you would be wrong.  Penn State may stop us more than other teams have, but Hackenberg’s inability to move their offense and their poor punting, will give us the field position edge.  Our offense will eventually score and score again.  PSU will have to throw and we will get other pick six.   I like the Buckeyes to cover and I like the over.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 40, Penn State 16

Rutgers

The much anticipated matchup of the No. 2 and 4 teams in offensive passing efficiency has finally arrived!

It may be hard to get fired up for the first ever meeting with the Scarlet Knights, but put away your preconceived notions about Rutgers because this team can play.  In Week One they went out to Pullman, WA and upset the Cougars in a 41-38 shootout.   They went to Navy and allowed 200 fewer yards rushing than the Buckeyes did a few weeks earlier.    They are 5-1 right now, although the schedule sets up to where they might not win another game the rest of the year.

Rutgers will go as Senior QB Gary Nova (10) goes.   He has 7 INTs this year (which makes me wonder how they can be No. 4 in passing efficiency – I guess it is because all of his passes are completed to someone).   He chucked 5 of the 7 in the Penn State game, so the stat appears worse than it really is.   He also threw for 404 yards against Michigan.  Rutgers lost starting RB Paul James to a torn ACL, and initially used Justin Goodwin (32) as a replacement but now rely upon  5-8, 175 lbs Desmon Peoples (6) to get the job done.   While Nova can distribute the ball, most of the time he targets Jr. WR Leonte Carroo (4).  Rutgers doesn’t do anything dramatic on offense, as most of their stats – save passing efficiency – are middle of the pack. 

In looking at their defense, the stats are the same with the exception of sacks and red zone defense.   Rutgers has 24 sacks on the year to rank 3^rd nationally.  Red zone defense is sort of a misleading stat because in tracks scores you have given up once a team crosses your 20.  For example, Ohio State is 106^th in RZD at .917, because the opponent has scored a TD or FG on 11 of 12 possessions.   But OSU has only allowed an opponent into the red zone 12x in 5 games (which obviously ignores all the big plays UC converted for scores).  Contrast that with Purdue, who is 30^th in RZD, but has allowed 33 trips into the red zone and 25 scores.   As for Rutgers, they rank 26^th at .750, allowing 18 scores (14 TDs) in 24 trips.  Perhaps they sack the opponent on 3^rd down and force a longer FG which is then missed.  I’m not sure, but something is going on there.

How about some completely irrelevant but “fun” stats, hmm?  The game is on ABC (or ESPN2).  Rutgers hasn’t won on ABC since 2006.  Coach Kyle Flood is 0-4 v. ranked teams, and Rutgers has not beaten a ranked team on the road since 2008 (per Rutgers A.D.) or 2009 (per Phil Steele).  Rutgers will play before their largest crowd ever on Saturday, breaking the 103,925 mark set when they played at Tennessee in 2002.  Ohio State has won 17 consecutive B1G regular season games.  The record is 20 set by – Ohio State (2005-2007).   If the Buckeyes win against Rutgers, Penn State, and Illinois, they can try and break the record at Michigan State.  Coach Meyer has not lost an October game since 2010.  Ohio State is 13-2 at home after a week off, including 11 consecutive wins.   Urban’s teams are 37-3 with more than one week to prepare.  It’s Homecoming and the Buckeyes are 67-19-5 in HC games.  If you will be traveling to a soccer game (like some of us) you can find the game on Sirius Channel 84.  Blah, blah, blah fishcakes you say.  What about Vegas?

The sharks have Ohio State as a 19.5 point favorite with the over/under at 59.  The line has not moved since it opened.  Rutgers is 4-2 ATS including 2-0 on the road and 2-0 as a road dog.  The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS, with the only blemish being the loss to Va Tech.  The over has been the play in most Buckeye games. The question is whether the Buckeyes, who have been firing on all cylinders since the Hokie massacre, can pick up where they left off.   The bigger unknown is which Gary Nova will show up for Rutgers?   The guy who can throw for 400+ yards, or the guy who likes the other color jerseys?  I was a woeful 4-7 last week ATS so take the next two lines with the proverbial grain of salt.   I think Ohio State does pick up where it left off and puts up big points and numbers.  But there is something about Rutgers that sticks to you like gum on a shoe.  I think they hang around in the background and a late score covers the spread.  

Schaef says:  Ohio State 45, Rutgers 27.

Maryland

It’s pretty intimidating playing Maryland when you realize the Terrapins have NEVER lost a B1G game in their history.  Ohio State will try and end that streak Saturday at noon.

Maryland is 4-1, with road wins over South Florida, Syracuse, and Indiana and a home win v. James Madison.  They lost at home to WVa on a last second FG.   But when I look at the stats I wonder ‘how has Maryland won any games?’  They do nothing exceptionally well.   Comparatively, the Buckeyes are significantly better in almost every key category.  I was able to make some sense of them though and 3 things stood out.

First, Maryland’s defense in 89^th in total yards, and 107^th in first downs allowed.  Not surprisingly, Maryland is 79^th in time of possession.  But, Maryland is 5^th in red zone defense.   They bend, but they don’t break. 

Second, Maryland is very good in the return game. 5^th in punt returns nationally (1^st in B1G) with 2 TDs already, and 20^th nationally in kickoff returns (again 1^st in B1G), although former Buckeye recruiting target, WR Stefon Diggs, is 11^th nationally on his own with 29.4 ypr.  So, if they do force a punt or concede a FG, they are going to give themselves good field position.

Lastly, they have a strong, accurate kicker.  Junior Brad Craddock is 10/10 so far this year and 6/6 from 40+.  If Maryland gets the ball across midfield, odds are they are going to come away with some points.

INTERMISSION:  Did you know that the campus with the most ESPN College Game Day visits is Ohio State?  The Buckeyes have hosted Fowler, Corso, and Herbstreit 13 times and won 10.  The last visit was November 13, 2010 when Penn State came to town.

Maryland opened a 10 point underdog, but the line has decreased to 8.5.  The over/under is 58.  Saturday’s forecast is 65 with only a 20% chance of rain.  Cincinnati scared me, and if the ref had called Eli Apple for defensive holding instead of offensive interference on them when it was 36-28, I wonder how that game would have ended.  Maryland has the experienced QB and the WRs to cause us major headaches and we could see several long pass plays.  Their defense is better than the Bearcats so we won’t have nearly as easy a time on offense.  Coach Randy Edsall is 0-8 v. Top 25 teams, so this could be a signature win for the program.  His team is 3-3 ATS as a home dog. 

I see a similar game as Cincinnati, though without the early turnover in our favor and without the Swiss cheese opposition defense.  I see a slugfest of big plays from Maryland v. a pounding from the OSU rushing game.  I’m really tempted to take Maryland and the points, but I think the Buckeyes will score late to cover.

Schaef says:  Ohio State 37, Maryland 27.

Cincinnati

I really don’t know how I feel about this one.

Honestly, 10 days ago I was certain UC would beat us. I watched them as they lit up Toledo and moved the ball so easily through the air.  QB Gunner Kiel is finally playing football and threw 6 TDs in his first game.  If you don’t know his story, as a high school senior he committed to Indiana.  Then changed his mind and committed to LSU.  But before signing day, he enrolled at Notre Dame.  He got beat out by both Everett Golson and Tommy Rees, so he transferred to Cincinnati and had to sit out the 2013 season.  His uncle, Blair Kiel, played QB at Notre Dame and his brother Dusty played QB at Indiana.

I really, really dislike the ESPN view that Cincinnati is a “ho-hum” game for the Buckeyes  http://espn.go.com/college-football/powerrankings

(the 22 year old intern who wrote that should be canned).  Over the past 7 seasons, UC has won 76 games and has a .731 winning percentage.  That puts them in the top 10 of all FBS schools.   They have former Ole Miss, Auburn, and Texas Tech coach Tommy Tuberville at the helm, and they played in 2 BCS bowls in the last 6 years.  This is not a football team just showing up to collect the $800,000 check from Gene Smith.

Now, as awesome as UC’s offense is (and by awesome I mean, well, awesome) they apparently suck on defense.  And by suck, I mean, well, they suck.  Pick a statistical category and you are likely to find the Bearcats at the bottom (106^th in Total D, 112^th in Pass efficiency, 113^th in 3^rd down conversion defense, etc., etc.).   Had they played Oregon and Florida State that would be one thing.  But they played Toledo and Miami (Ohio), both at home.  I think Tressel was still our coach the last time Miami won, yet they hung with the Bearcats until the very end last week.   So, who is Cincinnati?  Really?

 Vegas apparently does not think much of them because Ohio State is a 15.5 favorite.  I spit my bagel out all over my computer screen when I saw that.   The over/under is a surprisingly low 64.   Now, I know we brought in Chris Ash to revamp the defense, but I’m not sure the project is complete yet.   I think Cincinnati will spread us out and Kiel is good enough in only his 3^rd collegiate game to find the right receiver, no matter how much pressure we put on him.   I expect the Bearcats to score in the 30s.   I also expect their defense to give us chance after chance after chance to score as well.  The question for the Buckeyes are can they take advantage of those multiple opportunities and not shoot themselves in the foot.  Somewhere in the 4^th quarter, either the OSU offense will fail to convert a key 3^rd down or the Buckeye defense will rise up and stop the Bearcats.   One of those will decide the game.   15.5?  Waaaaay too much.  UC is 4-0 ATS as a road dog.  Under Tuberville they were 2-0 S/U as a road dog.  Take the Bearcats and the points and the over.  Set the DVR to record for at least 4 hours because this won’t be over until at least 10:00 p.m.  As for the final:

Schaef says:  Ohio State 38, Cincinnati 34.

Kent State

We won’t learn anything from this game.

Sure, Ohio State will win and win convincingly against Kent State and will likely cover the 32 point spread.  But the Golden Flashes are no measuring stick in any shape or form.   Kent State is 0-2 having lost at home to both Ohio and South Alabama.  The Golden Flashes are 2-23-1 in road openers and have lost 6 straight by an average of 28 ppg.   This team was supposed to be much improved off of their 4-8 season a year ago, but clearly there are problems – mostly on the offensive side.  The team has yet to rush for 100 yards total in 2 games.    Passing is not much better as Sophomore QB Colin Reardon’s QB ratings for the first two games have been 65.6 and 34.1 (contrast that to J.T. Barrett’s 84.8 and 26.7).    Their defense has not played that poorly but still has given up nearly 200 yards rushing per game.  I attribute that mostly to the fact that the offense cannot stay on the field.

Kent will watch the film of Va. Tech and realize that if they blitz Barrett they can force some errors.  However, the Golden Flashes DBs are not the same caliber as the Hokies.  Plus, I sincerely hope that the OSU coaching staff spent the week helping Barrett identify blitzes and practice throwing to the hot receiver.   On the other side of the ball, our 3^rd down defense must get better.  Given Kent State’s rushing woes, they should be looking at a lot of 3^rd and longs.   At that point, I expect our defense to look like Va. Tech and bring extra bodies to force early throws on 3^rd down, rather than sitting and letting Reardon find an open receiver.   Of course, with Noah Spence returning and the existing talent we have on the DL, we should (in theory) be able to overwhelm the young KSU OL by simply rushing four.

I expect our offense to run our typical sets with no special modifications for Kent.  This will be a glorified scrimmage for Barrett to get use to hot reads, slants, and shifting up into the pocket – all in preparation for Cincinnati in 2 weeks (FYI – the Bearcats still have not played a game and finally start their season this Saturday night).  Urban and Tom Herman will feature the running game and both Ezekiel Elliott and Curtis Samuel could top 100 yards.  Ohio State will win 51-10 and cover the 32 points.   But at the end of the day, Buckeye fans will have the same insecurities and uncertainties about this team.  Each and every positive will be met with a “Yeah, but . . . “ due to the opponent.  So take the Buckeyes, give the points, and bet the over (currently at 50.5).   After this, we will have 2 weeks to work out other kinks in preparation for Cincinnati, a game if it were being played this weekend would scare me to death.

Virginia Tech

“You are green, it is true. But they are green also.  You are all green alike.” – Abraham Lincoln to General Irvin McDowell, July 1861.

Virginia Tech may technically have 9 starters returning on offense, but it was the newcomers that made the biggest impression in their opening week win over William & Mary.   Texas Tech transfer (12) Michael Brewer started at QB and went a respectable 23-30-251 with 2 TDs and 1 INT.   Freshman RBs Shai McKenzie (22) and Marshawn Williams (42) were heavily involved, as McKenzie had 9 carries for 106 yards and 1 TD, while Williams went 12-41.    And Freshman TE Bucky Hodges (7) led all receivers with 6-38-1, and Freshman WR Isiah Ford (1) was next with 4-43-1.  Where the experience lined up for the Hokies was the offensive line which consists of 4 seniors and 1 sophomore.  We all know that the Buckeyes have their share of green players in QB J.T. Barrett, RB Curtis Samuel, a new OL, among others.

But when you think of Va. Tech, you should think of defense and special teams.  But both have been in decline the past two years and the overall record reflects that (7-6 in 2012, 8-5 in 2013).   Tech lost 5 of its top 9 tacklers from 2013 and returns only 5 starters.   They did limit William & Mary to 76 yards rushing and 117 passing, but then again, it was William & Mary.  The Hokies only led 20-9 with 4 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter before 2 late TDs stretched the margin to 34-9 and covering the 23.5 point spread.

The other thing you think of with Va. Tech is Lane Stadium and how intimidating a place it can be.  Thank god we are not there Saturday.  Instead, the Hokie youngsters get to come to the Shoe.  On a Saturday night.  Under Coach Frank Beamer, Va. Tech has not fared well v. AP Top Ten teams (3-11), nor when leaving campus (1-8).  Their only win over a top ten team in the past decade was over No. 10 Miami, but that was when Virginia Tech was No. 9.    In fact, most of Virginia Tech’s true road games at top ten opponents have involved Miami, Fla.    They did play at LSU in 2007 and got scorched 48-7, but then you have to go all the way back to 1992 when they played at No. 10 Syracuse.   What I am saying is that even when Virginia Tech was a top ten powerhouse, they did not do so well v. highly ranked opponents – named Miami or otherwise – away from Blacksburg.

Under Tressel, the Buckeyes used to experience a 2^nd game let down, but that seems to be cured under Meyer.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has struggled mightily lately in their first road game after easy home wins.

The line is Ohio State -11.   Urban is 15-0 at home.  Two blowout wins (Nebraska 63-38 and Penn State 63-14) have come at home at night.  Even the 2013 Wisconsin game we were up 31-14 through 3 quarters and still covered the spread.  Va. Tech won’t run the triple option, so our run defense should look a lot better.  They will throw though, so our secondary will finally get tested.  But Ohio Stadium holds 40,000 more than Lane Stadium, and the fans will be loud – drunk, and loud.    

Prediction:  Ohio State 44, Virginia Tech 24.

Kentucky Derby 2014

            It is an annual rite of spring. Three-year-old thoroughbreds gather in Louisville, Kentucky to go a distance none of them have raced before.  Men dress up in nice suits, women wear spectacular hats, and people drink a whiskey and mint concoction that no one orders for the other 364 days of the year.  And I write a column about the race in which I tell you that the only certain thing is the uncertainty of the race.

            But not this year.  No, I am still writing a column, but there is no uncertainty in 2014.  That is because there is one horse who is the one to watch, the one to bet to win, and the one who will win.  That colt is California Chrome.

            Doubters come up with some reasons why he may not win.  He will be the favorite, but that jinx has been broken four times in the past ten years (Smarty Jones, 2004; Street Sense, 2007; Big Brown 2008; and Orb, 2013).  He has never raced at Churchill Downs, but his trainer, Art Sherman, has plenty of experience at the track.  Sherman was even an exercise rider for 1955 Derby winner Swaps.   Chrome may not be perfect but what he does have is a solid base of race experience and high stakes race wins in impressive fashion.

            Do yourself a favor and go to www.Bloodhorse.com.  They have all of the Derby prep races there for you to watch. Take a look at California Chrome’s San Felipe Stakes win, which was essentially a match race against Midnight Hawk.  Then look at Chrome’s easy win over Hoppertunity and Candy Boy in the Santa Anita Derby.  In both races, when he turned for home, Chrome separated himself from the field easily and without need for a whip.  He has a gear that other horses do not, and frankly a name that just sounds good.

            His path was made much easier when Florida Derby winner Constitution had to drop out due to injury.  The second best horse now may be Bob Baffert’s Hoppertunity, but if he could not come within six lengths of Chrome at Santa Anita, why should anyone think he can beat Chrome now?  Questions linger over Arkansas Derby winner Danza, whose past was so inconsistent that he went off as a 40-1 long shot.  He also received a dream ride when pre-race favorite Bayern strayed from the rail and allowed Danza to sneak through.  Ride On Curlin, who was second at Arkansas, deserves some consideration, especially considering that Calvin Borel will be aboard in the Derby.  But Borel likes to keep his horse very far back early and then pass the other horses along the rail. If the gaps on the inside are not there, he will eat up too much ground going wide.  Even with a perfect ride, Ride On Curlin probably does not have enough speed to catch Chrome.

Wicked Strong won the Wood, and performed very well in New York, but very poorly in Florida.  He may also have a problem with large crowds and he is going to see his biggest crowd ever in Louisville.  General A Rod, despite his name, has a pedigree that suggests he could win.  Then again, he could not finish ahead of Wildcat Red in either the Fountain of Youth Stakes or the Florida Derby, and Red is going to be in the field on Saturday.  As for Wildcat Red, he has never had a bad race, but the Derby distance may be just too far for him to carry his early speed.  He’s a good horse to bet for second or third.

            For once the choice is clear.  There is no horse entered that has matched California Chrome’s results.  He’s good on paper and he’s great on the track.  And barring a bad post-position, an off-track, or simply bad luck, there is no reason to think that Seattle Slew’s great-grandson won’t be in the winner’s circle late Saturday, adorned with a blanket of red roses, and poised for a Triple Crown run.  Of this, I am certain.

Schedule Outlook for Fulham and Relegation Fight

As I write this on 13 January, 2014, Fulham sit in 16th place with 19 points and a league worst goal differential of -24.   But there is some good news.   If Arsenal defeat Aston Villa today, the bottom 11 teams of the EPL will be within six points of each other.  In my limited experience for following Fulham (7 years) I cannot recall so many teams fighting to stay up.  Usually, there is one team who was a lock for the Championship (Derby County, QPR) and 5 or 6 teams fighting not to finish either 18th or 19th.  But this year the chasm has formed between 9th and 10th place, leaving all below to fight for survival.

I took a look at the remaining schedules to see if there was some clue as to what may happen the rest of the way.  Truthfully, I was looking for a "silver lining" for all of Fulham's supporters - a statistical lifeline that we could collectively cling to.  I am sorry to report that my findings were not what I had hoped.

With 17 matches remaining, each team from Hull and Aston Villa on down the table has either 8 or 9 at home and the other number on the road.  More home games usually are beneficial to a team as some turn in Jekyll and Hyde performances depending upon the venue (e.g. Hull City:  18 points + 7 GD at home, 3 points, -7 GD away).  While Fulham have been consistently poor in both locations, they have only 8 home matches versus 9 on the road.

I then looked at how many times each potential relegator plays a Top Nine team, and where they play them. Strike two to Fulham as we have to play all 9 of them (West Ham and Sunderland are the only other two that do).  From this analysis, things look rosy for Hull City and Aston Villa.   Hull only play 7 of the top 9 and they get 6 of the 7 at KC Stadium.  Meanwhile, Villa get 8 of the 9, but 6 of them on the road where the Villains have been playing much better.  Swansea, WBA, Stoke, and Crystal Palace also only have to play 7 of the 9.

What will be even worse for Fulham is that 8 of our next 10 are against Top Nine teams.  So, we could be taking a beating for the next two months without much to show for it in the way of points.  But that also means that 5 of our last 6 will be against bottom teams.  We could make up ground at the end while teams like West Ham (who finish with 5 of 7 against top teams) could be dropping like a stone come springtime.

The end result of my review is that it looks like 6 teams fighting for 3 spots (15th, 16th and 17th, that is):  Norwich City, Fulham, West Ham, Cardiff City, Sunderland, and Crystal Palace.  All but Palace have 8 or 9 matches against the top nine.  Cardiff and Sunderland play most of those on the road.  While Norwich has 9 home matches remaining, 5 of them are against top nine clubs, with the others being Hull, Stoke, WBA, and Sunderland.  With the Canaries being a -17 GD on the road, those home matches will be key and there does not appear to be many wins there.

My off the cuff run through of the rest of the season has Fulham going 3-7-7 for 35 points and I have them safe, only by virtue of winning on the last day at home v. Crystal Palace.   I see Palace, Norwich, and Cardiff going down and the number to be safe being 32. In short, the next several months are going to be squeaky bum time for Fulham fans.

Orange Bowl - Clemson

Yeah, pretty much I forgot we had a game tonight until a friend reminded me.  I think a lot of fans are feeling this way.  The Orange Bowl would have been great had we lost earlier in the Big Ten (say Wisconsin or Northwestern) and couldn’t make the Big Ten Championship, but after 12-0 . . . meh.

The biggest story is not whether the players will be motivated to play (they will), and it is not the injury/suspensions (we have many, they have none).   Rather, the key factor in the game is uniform choice.  The Buckeyes will be wearing the home Scarlet jerseys, but not the regular uniforms, but the alternate ones.   Why is this a big deal?   In the Buckeyes’ past 15 bowl appearance (tracking back to the 1997 Rose Bowl – Joe Germaine to David Boston with 19 seconds left), we have worn our away Whites 11 times (including 9 of the last 11 times).  The two times we wore Scarlet were the 2008 BCS game v. LSU (a 38-24 loss which was closer than the media would have you remember) and our 2004 Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma State.  I don’t know why Tressel always preferred to go with White, but he did.  FYI – I could have gone back further but those numbers would have been skewed because Cooper lost virtually every bowl game early in his tenure.   If you want to know the complete history back to the 1984-85 Rose Bowl:

8-8 in White jerseys

3-5 in Scarlet jerseys

0-1   in unknown (1990 Liberty Bowl v. Air Force)

But I digress.  Urban will have the boys ready to play and I think the team will be highly motivated after that MSU loss.  The trouble is they are playing a very good (and healthy) Clemson team.  Taj Boyd is a really good passer and he has two excellent WRs.  NFL good.   Given our defensive, and especially secondary, woes, I fear it will be a very long night.

But that is my feeling, which is often times wrong.   This is Urban’s first bowl game for the Buckeyes.  He’s 7-1 in the bowls.  4-0 in BCS bowls (Fiesta, BCS, BCS, and Sugar).  He has Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde and a huge offensive line.  There are many reasons to be optimistic.   And, let us not forget that Clemson has a history of folding like a cheap chair if they get punched in the mouth and fall behind early.  

But, I cannot do it.  I see Boyd to Watkins over and over again in my sleep.   Sorry Buckeye fans, Schaef says:

Clemson 44, Ohio State 34.