Thank You ESPN's Pat Forde

For analyzing the game correctly -

"The final score is closer than the game played out. The Buckeyes had 106 more yards of total offense and gift-wrapped 10 Wolverines points with a botched center snap and a tipped-ball interception deep in their own territory. They were a minus-three in the turnover department -- two of them utterly unforced -- but never really had to sweat in the final 15 minutes.

Michigan only led for 6 minutes and 29 seconds Saturday, all in the first quarter. It only had a single fourth-quarter possession with a chance to tie or take the lead. The Wolverines went three-and-out on that possession, and Ohio State promptly drove 83 yards for a 42-31 lead. School was out at that point."

In my viewing of ESPN's post-game coverage, I was sick of the Chris Fowler/John Saunders "we need a rematch." How is that fair? Michigan did not win their conference. Does anyone remember to the last 2 national championship game contenders that didn't? (SEE: Nebraska being demolished by Miami, and Oklahoma - losing either to LSU or USC, I can't remember).

Look, I don't fear playing Michigan again. We won't give them 3 turnovers and 10 points. Lloyd Carr with more than 14 days to prepare - not so good. Tressel is a genius when given that much time. No, I don't want to have to defend this National Championship like we've had to defend the 2002 one. If we play Michigan again, and don't play a one loss USC or a one loss SEC team, there will be people questioning the validity of our title. Michigan had their shot and lost. Time to move on.

Great minds think alike

Apparently EA Sports shares my vision.

Michigan Week - Part 3: Reason for Optimism

Perhaps it is because when I first really started paying attention to Ohio State football, Woody lost the last 3 games of the 10-year war. And even though Earle Bruce won more than he lost, I feel he gave away 2 games to Michigan. And Cooper, well, let's not even go there.

The end result is that in those 25 years I watched Michigan go 17-7-1 against the Bucks. Six times during that span Ohio State was ranked higher going into the game and lost. And when they were both ranked in the top ten during that time, Michigan went 7-0. That sort of outcome breeds insecurity and doubt. A restlessness that has been etched into our collective psyche and our brain has been wired to find that feeling whenever the big game arrives.

But you have to stop and ask yourself "Why do I still feel that way?" Bruce and Cooper are gone. Tressel is 4-1 v. Michigan and won more big games in a shorter period of time than anyone in Ohio State history. He doesn't chew his fingernails on the sideline like Cooper did. Tressel has a plan - a well thought out plan - and can make in game decisions better than OSU's previous coaches, or that whiny goofball on the other side of the field. He has recruited incredible players, implemented systems which enable them to showcase their abilities, and kept them humble and team-oriented at the same time.

Then you have Troy Smith. The man has ice water in his veins. He has beaten Michigan twice. He's won v. ND, at Texas and at Iowa in the past 12 games. He can make plays. Chad Henne can execute what has been called, but only Smith can make something out of nothing. He sees the field like no other and finds the other team's weakness.

Michigan is very good. But this group does not know victory like we do. When the game is tight, whom do you trust? Tressel and Smith or Carr and Henne? And Michigan is not "due" for a win. Woody lost to Michigan 3 straight years. Cooper started out 0-5-1, and lost 5 of his last 6. Michigan is not the only team that can win multiple years in a row. Woody was 16-7-1 from 1952-1975. He won 4 in a row from 60-63. He was 3-0-1 from '72-'75. The Buckeyes are allowed to win 3 in a row, and Tressel is allowed to go to 5-1 v. the Wolverines.

Ohio State has too many weapons. Our defense is underrated. We can play more quality players per game than they can. Our coach has a decided advantage over theirs. We now have the psychological edge and momentum. And we have Brent Musberger, who appears to be in the booth for our biggest wins these last few years. Don't be nervous. If Troy isn't, no reason for you to be.

Sticking with the vision: Ohio State 28, Michigan 20.

Michigan at Ohio State - The Vision

It came to me as clear as a bell. Oh, Happy Day!

Michigan 7 3 3 7 - 20
Ohio State 7 14 0 7 - 28

1st
Mich - Hart 2 run (Rivas kick) - 10:03
OSU - Smith 2 run (Pettrey kick) - 5:12
2nd
Mich - FG Rivas 37 - 13:25
OSU - Ginn, Jr. 31 pass from Smith (Pettrey kick) - 6:19
OSU - Gonzalez 12 pass from Smith (Pettrey kick) - 1:33
3rd
Mich - FG Rivas 28 - 4:12
4th
OSU - Pittman 5 run (Pettrey kick) - 11:11
Mich - Arrington 10 pass from Henne (Rivas kick) - 0:41

Michigan Week - Part 2

What does Vegas know? Expecting to see anything from "pick 'em" to OSU +3 (purely home field advantage), I was shocked to see this:

Ohio State - 6.5

My initial reaction is "that's too much, I'd take Michigan." But Vegas probably knows that will be the natural reaction and that much of the money will come in on Michigan. That's very bad for Vegas - if it is a close game. But if Ohio State wins by 7 (or more) Vegas makes a lot of money. Last time I checked, Vegas is in the business of making a lot of money. They must think the Buckeyes are going to win by more than a touchdown. I can find no other explanation, especially after looking at the statistics.

Michigan Week - Part 1

The tale of the tape. Statistics today, analysis to follow (sorry for the formatting):

The tale of the tape:

Ohio State Category Michigan
20 - 179.5/game Rushing Offense 12 - 194.5/game
37 - 221.8 Passing Offense 82 - 178.4
19 - 401.3 Total Offense 34 - 372.9
8 - 35.82 Scoring Offense 26 - 29.36

11 - 90.2 Rushing Defense 1 - 29.9
23 - 171.5 Passing Defense 65 - 201.5
8 - 261.7 Total Defense 3 - 231.4
1 - 7.8 Scoring Defense 5 - 12.1


24 - 36.95 Net Punting 77 - 33.89
34 - 10.85 Punt Return Avg. 35 - 10.82
54 - 8.27 Punt Return Def. 53 - 8.24
84 - 18.58 Kick Return Avg. 47 - 21.13
28 - 18.49 Kick Return Def. 94 - 21.96

3 - + 14 Turnover Margin 8 - + 12
20 - 4.82 Penalties per game 24 - 5.00
29 - 42.18 Pen. yds per game 50 - 45.91

13 - 3.00 Sacks 2 - 3.64
10 - 7.55 Tackles for Loss 9 - 7.64

11 - 1.18 Sacks allowed 19 - 1.27
7 - 4.09 TFL allowed 18 - 4.45

5 - 51.1% 3rd down offense 51 - 40.1%
16 - 30.6% 3rd down defense 1 - 25.0%
13 - 70% (7/10) 4th down offense 2 - 80% (8/10)
96 - 61.5% (8/13) 4th down defense 23 - 36.8% (7/19

14 - 31:56 Time of Possession 1 - 34:04

Northwestern

As I write this, I really don't have a good feel for how this one will turn out.

On paper, the stats make it look a lot like Indiana and Minnesota. Northwestern cannot pass the ball. They are 104th in passing offense and average one more yard on the ground than through the air. They are also 105th in scoring offense at 16.1/game - and that includes the 38 points they put up on MSU. Defensively, they don't stop the run or the pass (71st and 80th) and they are 75th in points against. Even though they can run, they don't control the clock (84th in TOP) and they turn the ball over (-5 for the year). They are woeful at 3rd down conversions (92nd - 34.4%), and woeful and stopping teams on 3rd down (82nd - 40.3%). They can't punt (100th), and don't make tackles for loss (105th). Our stats in all these categories should be well-known by now.

History makes this game feel like Illinois. The Bucks last 4 visits to Evanston have not gone well. While we are 3-1 s/u, we are 0-4 ATS. In 2004, Nw beat the No. 7 Buckeyes in OT, 33-27 (we were 11 point favorites). In 2002, our freshman RB fumbled 3 times and we won 27-16, despite being ranked No. 5 and favored by 25. In 1998, No. 1 OSU beat the Wildcats 36-10 but did not cover the 28.5. In 1994, the No. 7 Bucks were favored by 15, but squeaked out a 17-15 win. In all of these games, Northwestern was unranked and had a record of .500 or worse.

The spread for this game is 23 with a conservative over/under of 43. This year, the Wildcats are 0-2 as a home dog, getting blasted by Purdue 10-31, and choking one away to MSU 38-41. Weather should not be a factor, as the most recent forecast I saw was 52 degrees with winds only at 13 mph.

I think the difference between Illinois and Northwestern is their respective defenses. The Illini were able to take advantage of Alex Boone's absence and show why Tim Schaefer should not be playing much. They stacked the box and our conservative play calling helped. Also, Beanie Wells' fumbling problems took away one of our weapons and allowed Pittman to get beat up. Northwestern does not have the defense that Illinois had, and I think the coaching staff will make adjustments so that we don't have a repeat. And when you think about the Illinois game, it really was not that bad. We were up 17-0 and driving to another score in the 3rd when Wells fumbled. If he holds on, it probably goes to 24-0 and we have no worries.

All that being said, I would take the 23. If Ohio State gets up, I would not be surprised that several people starting resting to avoid an injury. I hear we have a pretty big game coming up. MTB says:

Ohio State 7 14 7 7 - 35
Northwestern 0 3 3 10 - 16

Illinois

Here it comes. This is the game that we haven't seen all year - well, with the exceptions of the first of half of Cincinnati and the first 3 quarters of Penn State. What I mean is that this is the game where the heavy favorite struggles against an inferior team and puts some doubts in the minds of Buckeye fans as to whether we are "the team" this year.

Now, before you get all worked up, let me assure you that Ohio State will win. Also, you will be thankful that this performance occurs this Saturday instead of November 18. But there is something in the statistics as well as a feeling I have that this will not be Indiana/Minnesota, Part 3.

Illinois runs the ball better than we do (21st v. 22nd). Okay, it's not much, but it's still good. Their passing is suspect (60 yards less per game than us), but they can move the ball. Their trouble is that they can't put it in the endzone or through the uprights. Illinois is 89th in scoring at 19.78/game. And part of the problem is that they are 116th in turnover margin and are (-11) for the year. So, they move the ball and then decide they are tired of having it.

That puts their defense at a disadvantage, who probably have to defend a short field frequently, and subsequently their defense is 87th in scoring giving up 26.11/game. Looking at the rest of the stats, their defense is not bad. 53rd in rushing, 37th in passing and 39th in total defense. Maybe it's because the other teams don't have to move it very far, but I don't think that is the entire story. Illinois is poor in time of possession, so the Illini defense is out their a lot. To have these half-decent stats after being out on the field more than the opposition says something. One last stat is that Illinois plays low scoring games. They are 2-5 in the over/under meaning they underachieve when it comes to the total points Vegas says both teams will score.

Yes, this is Illinois team that is 1-4 at home and lost to Syracuse and Ohio U. in Champaign. They are also 2-8 in their last 10 November games. But this is where the feeling comes in. Illinois is 10-11straight up v. the Bucks in the last 21. They are 16-5 ATS in those games. The Buckeyes have won the last 6 in Champaign, but 4 of those were by 8 or less, and one was in overtime (you may remember that one). In each of those 6 Illinois was not ranked and they had losing in records in 5 of those 6, so it's not like the Buckeyes were battling good Illini teams. We have struggled against poor Illini teams.

There is every reason to believe that 2006 will be just like 1998 and 1996. OSU was undefeated in those years, Illinois was sub-.500, and OSU was 30 point favorites in both and covered 41-0 and 48-0. But I think this is the game where our third down pass gets batted down, dropped, or the receiver slips. Where we miss the blocking assignment or we get the hold that puts us back. Where the opposition's punt takes the crazy bounce and goes 70 yards. The game where Pittman and Wells put 3 on the ground. I think this is going to be a very frustrating day for the Buckeyes and their fans.
Take Illinois plus 26.5, and bet the under (48). But just remember, you'll be glad this game happened now and not in 2 weeks.

MTB says:

Ohio State 3 7 7 10 - 27
Illinois 3 6 0 6 - 15

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Is it just me, or will this post be nearly identical to last week's? In looking at the stats, Minnesota is nearly identical to the Hoosiers.

Let's start with their defense: 96th v. the run, 86th v. the pass, 97th overall, and 66th in scoring - giving up 23 points per game. That is after playing Div II North Dakota State last week, at home, and only winning 10-9. Minnesota has been a road dog twice this year and failed to show up. They lost 42-17 at Cal, and 48-12 at Wisconsin. They were a road favorite at Purdue but lost 27-21.

On offense, we all expect Minnesota to have a great running back (or two) and control the game by controlling the clock. Well, this is not that Minnesota team. Their offensive numbers are not atrocious: 38th in rushing, 64th in passing, 49th overall and 48th in scoring. What that means is they gain 10 less on the ground than OSU, 40 less through the air, 50 total, and 9 points fewer. They are 111th in TOP (27:30), and a miserable 97th in 3rd down conversions (33.3%).

The line is currently Ohio State by 27. I think Vegas has finally gotten wise to the fact that Tressel is not going to post 40 points per game, let alone 50. The over/under has been reduced to 50 (as opposed to past games of 55, 56). I always thought Minnesota gave us trouble, but Ohio State is 31-2 v. the Gophers since 1969. I guess it is because the games in the Metrodome are always close and Mason led his team to that 29-17 upset of 2000 at the Shoe. Aside from that one Cooper debacle, the Buckeyes have POUNDED the Gophers in Columbus: 34-3 (2002); 45-15 (1998); 45-0 (1996); 52-23 (1990); 42-9 (1987); 33-0 (1986); and 69-0 (1983) - I could go on but why?

I think the Buckeyes will break out of their typical pattern of starting slow and revving up in the 2nd and 3rd. The reason is that our offense is converting 50% of our 3rd down plays (10th in the nation), while Minnesota's defense allows opponents to convert 44.1% (99th). In short, they won't be able to get us off the field.

MTB says:

Minnesota 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 10 14 10 3 - 37

Indiana

This is a few days late because I actually took a friend's advice and did some work - for my job, that is. I don't know if the extra time helped with my analysis of the Indiana team, though.

My chief question - how is this team 4-3? Their last 3 games, they've given up an average of 37.5 points per game, been outgained in each game, and given up 500 yards on defense 2 of the last 3? They also lost to Southern Illinois (I-AA) and UConn, while eeking out a win v. Ball State by 1.You look at the statistics and there is not a single redeeming fact to support this team. 87th in rushing offense, 45th in passing, 72nd in total, 48th in scoring. On defense, it gets worse: 102nd v. the run, 84th v. the pass, 97th overall, and 97th in scoring defense. They are 110th in offensive 3rd down conversions, and their defense is 71st, allowing opponents to convert 39% of the time. They are 91st in Time of Possession, 94th in sacks and 62nd in sacks allowed.

My conclusion? Indiana must have had some big plays against bad teams. Illinois is bad. Iowa is not supposed to be bad, but I read where the Hawkeyes were missing 7 or 8 players due to injury. So, the Hoosiers are an illusion. Ohio State lost to Indiana in the 'Shoe in Earle's last year, 1987. You would have to go back another 36 years years to find another loss to the Hoosiers in Columbus, and that was Woody's first year. We are not due to lose to these guys until 2023.

So, the question becomes will the Buckeyes cover? The spread is 30.5, which with today's new faster paced games, may be hard to achieve. But I just found a stat that says "all-time, Ohio State has held Indiana to 9.9 pts/game average." That is mighty impressive. I am not worried about the Buckeyes overlooking Indiana for 2 reasons: (1) For unknown reasons, several of the computers have us at No. 3 behind USC and scUM; and (2) I read a quote in the Plain Dealer a few weeks back from one of the seniors talking about how Troy Smith and the other seniors relish playing in the Shoe. These guys realize their careers at OSU are ending and they want to make every home game special.

I think that with Indiana's pourous run defense, we will see a steady diet of Pittman (if healthy), C. Wells and M. Wells. That will make the game go fast. But, because I am not convinced that Pittman is 100%, or that Mo Wells can get more than 1.3 yards per carry, and that Ginn and Gonzo will be telling Troy Smith to throw them the ball because they are open on every play, I think we hit 40 (finally!). With Indiana's historical average, even I can do the math:

MTB says:

Indiana 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 14 14 0 14 - 42

Bonus Prediction - Michigan at Penn State

Michigan at Penn State - I'm calling it, making it a lock that it WON'T happen, but here goes anyway:

No one can run on Michigan (No. 1 at 40 yds/game), but no one can run on Penn State, either (No. 14 at 75 yds/game). Both teams give up significant passing yardage because teams cannot run against them. Morelli gets maligned as Penn State's QB, but Henne has thrown almost as many picks as Morelli in 60 fewer attempts. Morelli's thrown 5 in 184 attempts, Henne 4 in 122. Henne's efficiency numbers are better because he throws bombs to Mario Manningham. But Manningham ain't playing, is he? The loss of Manningham means Henne loses half of his passing yardage, 75% of his TD throws, and 40% of Michigan's total scoring.

The absence of Manningham will force Carr to try and grind up yardage (and clock time) on the ground. Michigan is No. 17 in rushing offense at 195 yards per game. However, with the complete absence of a deep threat, Penn State's already stingy defense will be able to put 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop the run. When PSU has the ball, their rushing offense is No. 20 at 191 yards per game going against the No. 1 rushing defense. But Penn State has the speedy wideouts that the Wolverines lack.

Saturday night in Happy Valley. That place will be rocking. Michigan will not score early and often as they did in ND to take the crowd out. And PSU is a different team at home than on the road, winning by an average score of 34-8.

An undefeated Mich - OSU game goes down the drain with Llllloyd:

Penn State 13, Michigan 10

Michigan State

This is a dangerous team - in theory. History tells us so. In 1972, the No. 5 Buckeyes lost to an unranked MSU team in East Lansing, 19-12. In 1974, Ohio State was No. 1 and fell again to an unranked Spartan team 16-13 (with the controversial goal line score/no score as time ran out). And, of course, Ohio State was No. 1 in 1998 when the once-again unranked Spartans came to Columbus, rallied from 24-9 down to win 28-24. Most, if not all, Buckeye fans recall those bitter losses.

But, then again, Ohio State was No. 1 when it faced Mich. State in 1969, 1970 and 1973, and the Buckeyes won all 3 of those games - with the 1970 win a 29-0 shutout in East Lansing. Since 1975, the Buckeyes are 8-2 at MSU, and those two losses can be explained. 1988 was Cooper's first year and his team was horrible. 1999 was the year our team imploded (instead of theirs) on its way to a 6-6 finish.

The winner of this matchup has won by 10+ points in 10 of the last 12 contests. Yet, even some of those were close. OSU trailed MSU 28-24 with 5 minutes remaining last year, and in 2004 Ohio State trailed 19-17 when Ted Ginn's big run after the catch put OSU in front with 3 minutes to go.

Ohio State is a 15 point favorite this year. I cannot find any year in which OSU has been a double digit favorite at MSU. Three times OSU was a double digit favorite in Columbus and failed to cover each time.

The history with MSU scared me so much that I needed to settle down with some cold hard facts. First, MSU is playing without their leading rusher (Javon Ringer - injury) and their best receiver (Trannon). Next, while the offensive statistics between the two are similar, MSU is 86th in scoring defense, while Ohio State is now 1st. Another huge area is offense and defensive lines. While MSU can open holes for their running game, they are only average in pass protection, ranking 64th in sacks allowed. On the other side, their defensive line cannot get close to the QB. MSU ranks 104th in sacks, and 108th in tackles for loss. OSU's defense is 9th in the nation in sacks and 7th in tackles for loss.

If Ohio State gets up early and forces MSU to pass, this could be a blowout. Pitcock, Laurinitis, et al. will spend all day getting to know Drew Stanton. However, if the game is close and MSU can pound away with their cannon ball second string RB (Caulcrick) they could keep it close. I'm not sure if the MSU crowd will bother to show up, let alone be into the game. I think MSU is too undermanned to hang with the Buckeyes, and I am not impressed with John L. Smith as a strategist or gameday coach. I think Tressel will remind the Bucks of our history with MSU and come up with a strategy to make sure the ghosts of '72, '74 and '98 do not repeat themselves here.

MTB says:

Ohio State 7 10 10 7 - 34
Mich. State 0 7 7 3 - 17

Bowling Green

Going to go out on a limb and say the Buckeyes win Saturday. The next question is by how much?

While the Buckeyes are 11-0 v. the MAC since 1992 (Tressel is now 6-0), Ohio State is only 4-7 ATS (Tressel 3-3 ATS). That record will be difficult to improve upon especially with the line at 34.5.

The Buckeyes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when favored by 30 or more. Tressel is only 1-1 having beaten Illinois last year 40-2 when the Buckeyes were giving 34. The year before, Ohio State was favored over San Diego State by 30.5, but won a squeaker 16-13. Meanwhile, BG is 2-2 ATS when they are getting 30+ points. They were getting 39 from OSU in 1997 and while the Bucks won 44-13, the Falcons still covered the spread.

Statistically, these two teams have similar yardage averages on offense and defense. Ohio State is 34th in total offense (386 yds/game), BG is 52nd (362 yds/game). Buckeyes are 37th in total defense (293 yds/game), while the Falcons are 41st (299 yds/game). The key is scoring. Here the Buckeyes have a big advantage. Ohio State averages 32.4 pts/game v. BG's 23.8. Defensively, Ohio State gives up only 9.8/game, good for No. 5 in the country, while the Falcons clock in at No. 101 giving up 30.0 pts/game. And Bowling Green has given up those points to Wisconsin, Buffalo, Florida International, Kent State and Ohio U. None of these teams are offensive powerhouses as they rank 37th, 96th, 106th, 78th and 98th respectively. In fact, only Wisconsin comes close to averaging the Buckeyes weekly output.

Final factors - BG has a sophomore QB backed up by 2 redshirt freshmen.

This should (hopefully) be over with quickly. The fact that BG gives up the same amount of yards as we do but 3x as many points makes me think their offense turns the ball over and/or their punting game stinks and the opponents have a short field with which to work. Either way, our offense should go through them easily. An issue will be when does Tressel bench the starters and give the 2nd and 3rd stringers a chance. That may impact the final, but I think the Buckeyes cover the huge spread.

MTB says:

Bowling Green 0 3 0 7 - 10
Ohio State 14 17 14 3 - 48

Iowa thoughts and prediction

Big Ten night games and Coach Tressel do not mix. After a win at home v. Northwestern, Tressel is 0-3 since. That's a concern. However, all 3 of those losses followed a bye week, so maybe it's the week off that is the problem.

Iowa, historically, has not been the problem. The Buckeyes are 11-2-1 straight up and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games versus the Hawkeyes. Going back 23 years and including Hayden Fry's signature 20-14 win versus the No. 3 Buckeyes in 1983, Ohio State is 7-2-1 in Iowa City (and 8-2 at the Shoe). In the last 5 games at Iowa City (including 2004's crushing 33-7 loss) Ohio State still outscores Iowa by an average of 34-20.

When the 2 teams are ranked, it has been all good for Ohio State. Last year, we were No. 8, they were No. 21, Ohio State wins 31-6. In 2003, we were No. 8, they were No. 9, Ohio State wins 19-10. In 1997, we were No. 7, they were No. 11, Ohio State wins 23-7. In 1996, we were No. 2, they were No. 20, Ohio State wins 38-26.

Iowa won't roll over. They are 5-3 s/u and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home underdog. Also, the home teams is 7-2 ATS since 1995 in this series. The current line is 6.5 after opening at 7.

These teams are incredibly even as far as statistics go, with 3 exceptions. Ohio State is No. 16 in the nation in turnover margin at + 5, while Iowa is No. 79 at -2. In net punting, after the return, Ohio State nets 39 yards, while Iowa's average punt only goes 35 yards before the return. Most importantly, Ohio State's defense is No. 4 in 3rd down conversions, giving up first downs only 2 times out of 10. Iowa, meanwhile, is No. 100 allowing opponents to convert 50% of the time.

Those three stats play right into Tressel's style of play. Ohio State will be able to convert some 3rd downs, pin Iowa deep, and the Buckeye defense will force a punt. Iowa's punting is poor, so Troy Smith and the offense will have a short field to work with. Ohio State should jump on top, then sit back and pick off a few Drew Tate passes.

Iowa has not played anyone yet this year. They struggled at home versus Iowa State, who was then blown out by Texas. Iowa's games have also been low scoring as they have finished "under" in all 3 of their contests. The over/under here is 43.5.

MTB says:

Ohio State 7 14 7 0 - 28
Iowa 0 7 7 0 - 14

Penn State

Ohio State has a clear advantage in the trenches. Penn State returns only one offensive lineman - LT Levi Brown (who Mel Kiper has in his Top 10). Everyone else is new. Their QB is also new, and a lot less mobile than last year's Michael Robinson. Pitcock and the rest should be able to get to him when he drops back. They need to because PSU returns their explosive wideouts. If Morelli has time to throw, we could get burned.

Their defense is just as depleted as ours as they lost 3 DL and all 4 DBs. They do return a great LB corps, but their success depends on the DL tying up the OL. Our OL experience and Tressel's ability to throw in a wrinkle (e.g., extra TE v. Michigan) will negate the LBs. Notre Dame torched this defense for over 100 on the ground and more than 300 in the air. We can do the same or better.

Penn State has beaten Akron and D-IAA Youngstown State. They got thrashed on national TV v. the Irish. Thus, they have padded their stats against the weaker teams, and as we saw last week, the Irish defense is not that great.

Initially, I thought the 17 point spread was too much. But then I looked again at the 6 games these two teams have played in the Shoe since 1993. Ohio State has outscored Penn State by a total of 169-45 (avg score 28-7). The Nittany Lions have been held to single digits 5 of 6 games. The Buckeyes have covered in all 6 of those, and the underdog in this game is 0-8 v. the spread in the last 8 contests.

This is not the same Penn State team as last year. Their offense is down, and their defense is down. Our defense is bending but not breaking, and our offense is scoring at about the same pace as the end of last year. Weather-wise, the forecast says the rain should hold off, for what that is worth.

MTB says:

Penn State 7 0 0 0 - 7
Ohio State 3 10 7 10 - 30

Cincinnati

Here's More Than Buckeyes (MTB) weekly prediction:

No fear of a letdown for 2 reasons: (a) thanks to Florida State barely beating Troy, Air Force falling one point short of Tennessee, and Akron defeating NCState in Raleigh, there's plenty of material for Tressel to show the team that they cannot take any time off; and (b) Troy Smith. Did you listen to him after the game? The guy has gone from an "athlete" with a questionable character, to someone I hope my son role models. Accepts no credit, gives it to the coaches and offensive line. No revenge versus Texas - every win is a good win. This guy is having a dream season (only 2 games in) and has the leadership and the will power to compel the team to play well. I think he realizes that he has only a few more games left in Ohio Stadium and he's going to make the most of them.

Other reasons - our defense, while impressive, still needs a lot of work. I'm sure the coaches pointed out plenty of missed tackles in film and is embarrassed by our giving up nearly 200 yards per game rushing so far. Another is Cincinnati - they are not that good. They cannot keep up with our offense. If we get up by 10 or 14, they will not come back. This is not the Cincinnati of 2002 where we barely got by. Nor is this Marshall of 2004 in which we needed a 54 yard FG from Nugent. They are worse, and we are better.

Tressel has never lost to an unranked non-conference team. Ohio State is 6-0 under Tressel coming home after a road win. Unless we turn the ball over 5 times, this should not be a problem. We may not cover the 29 1/2 point spread, but we will win comfortably.

MTB says:

Cincinnati 3 7 0 6 - 16
Ohio State 7 17 14 3 - 41

Believe it or not - here were my predictions for No. Illinois and Texas (which I was unable to publish prior to vacation):

OSU 10-0 v. the MAC in the 14 years. Tressel is 5-0. But the Buckeyes are only 3-7 v. the spread (Tressel is 2-3). But he's never had an offense like this one.

Bucks haven't lost a home opener since 1978. In their last 14 home openers they are 11-3 v. the spread. No. Illinois is 0-12 straight up, but 8-4 ATS v. the Big 10 since 1992.

The Buckeye offense gets it going early forcing NIU to abandonned a controlled running game and effectively limiting the role of the Huskies great RB Wolfe. The Buckeye defense plays better than expected and OSU covers the 18 point spread.

Final - Ohio State 38, Northern Illinois 17.

Bonus Pick - As I will be in Arizona all next week, here's a take on the Texas game. Texas is supposed to have this awesome defense, but USC scored 38 on them, and we should have scored more than 22 but we had to settle with FGs. Our offense will be better than game 2 of last year and Texas will not have Vince Young to carry them back.

The Buckeyes rarely play a non-conference road game, and Tressel is 2-1 in them with the only loss being at UCLA in year one of his regime. Look to the bowl games for more evidence. Tressel is 4-1, winning 4 in a row. Despite being No. 1, the Buckeyes will probably be an underdog in Austin. That's okay, the Buckeyes were dogs in 3 of Tressel's 4 bowl wins.

Final - Ohio State 31, Texas 24

Go Bucks!

NFL Preseason and injuries

The cry has gone up that the NFL's system of 4-5 preseason games needs to be shortened because too many (star) players are being hurt.

News flash - professional football is a violent game. To paraphrase the old adage: it is not a contact sport, it is a collision sport.

A bit of history here. In the old days - pre 1980's - NFL players used to take the entire summer off. The players also made less money so they had other jobs. They would get woefully out of shape and needed a 6-week exhibition season just to get into shape. Growing up, a guy next door played football so well that he ended up playing tackle for the Miami Dolphins. I can still recall the images of him coming to his parents' home for a week prior to training camp and trying to get back into shape running up and down our road.

In 1978, the NFL expaned from 14 regular season games to 16. Simultaneously, they decreased the preseason schedule from 6 to the current 4 games. A rise in salaries in the 1980s - due in part to the 3-year presence of the USFL - also led to a rise in workout ethic. Players stayed in shape throughout the off-season and teams began conducting mini-camps and other "voluntary" workouts. We started hearing about Roger Craig's hillside runs and teammate Jerry Rice's off-season regimens.

The fans want their stars to be healthy for the regular season. That is understandable. If I were a Redskin fan, I would be upset that Clinton Portis was injured on the first series in the first preseason game. But shortening or eliminating the preseason does not solve the injury crisis.

LeCharles Bentley - former Buckeye All-American - and current Cleveland Brown, was injured on the first play of the first PRACTICE of training camp. He is out for the year. Others, such as Minnesota safety Tank Williams, were injured in practice and lost for the season. Point? Injuries happen in football all of the time.

Imagine this - the NFL eliminates the preseason games or reduces them so that Clinton Portis does not play prior to the regular season. Then, on the first series of the first regular season game, he goes down with a serious injury. I believe that Michael Wilbon of the Washington Post (see link above) and ESPN Radio's Mike Greenberg would write an article about how the preseason games are necessary so that the players receive some "game conditioning" and are used to being hit. Perhaps preseason critics would then argue that Portis would not have been hurt if he had played in some exhibition games.

Jim Lachey, another Buckeye legend, was recently on the radio talking about training camp. He said the one year he held out of camp - and this was years into his career - on the day he returned to camp, he noticed a big difference in his skill level versus those that had been in camp. The message was that even if you are an All-Pro caliber player, you need practice time. If you need practice time, you probably are going to have blocking and tackling. If you have that, you will probably have injuries. The violence of football produces predictable results.

What if Portis would have been hurt during an inter-squad scrimmage versus an exhibition game? Would there be an article in the Washington Post about practice? (Practice? We are talking about practice?). I doubt it.

Players in the NFL are going to get injured. Each day, each week, each game, each season. Your number is going to come up sometime, someday. Clinton Portis had his come up in Preseason game No. 1. Had there been no preseason, it may have come up in practice the next day. Or, maybe it would have come up five minutes into Game No. 1. You can make all the changes to the schedule you want but you cannot change that fact. If you do not want your stars hurt, keep them out of practice and out of the preseason. But be prepared to have a star that is rusty and susceptible to injury because of that rust.

Net Neutrality and Buckeye fans

Imagine this scenario - you cannot view the 2006 version of Penn State v. Ohio State game because you cannot get to a TV or the game is regionalized and you get to watch Oregon v. Arizona instead. You do, however, have access to a computer and decide to listen to the great Paul Keels call the game on the Buckeyes' flagship station 1460 The Fan's website. You log on to the internet, type in the address, and . . . you wait. And you wait. And you wait some more. Then, one of two things happen - either you get a message saying the page won't open, or it does open, but the connection is so poor and slow that the game is already at half over by the time your connected (and after that you only hear every 10th word Paul says).

This is more than a poor connection. This is a deliberate denial of access or an intentional slowing down of the signal. Freedom to access any website at any time coming to an end.

Cannot believe it could happen? Well, there are two large groups out there telling the government that it will happen, and soon, but for two very different reasons. Welcome to the issue of "Net Neutrality." How we got here is too long and complicated for me to understand, let alone describe, but Law Professor Tim Wu, has written numerous papers to help frame the issues and the debate.

In one corner, we have the "Deregulationists." These are the internet providers (such as AT&T, Bell South, and Verizon) who claim ownership of cable/DSL lines ("pipes") that bring the internet to you. They say that because of the increasing amount of internet traffic, you won't be able to get to the 1460 site. When the primary source of internet traffic was data, there was plenty of bandwidth (space) for the traffic to flow. But more and more the internet is handling voice and video which take up much more bandwidth. If you do get through, your connection may be very slow.

The Deregulationists' solution is to create a "tiered system" which essentially discriminates internet traffic based upon content. Voice and video get preferred bandwidth space if the content provider (such as 1460 The Fan) pays the Deregulationists a fee for that preferred space. The remaining internet traffic gets use of the non-preferred space.

In the other corner are the "Openists." These are the content providers (such as Google, Microsoft, Yahoo), as well as bloggers, and consumer advocacy groups. These are the people arguing for "net neutrality." Their argument is that the internet providers have never been able to discriminate based upon content before, and they should not be able to now. You, as the user, have been able to access any site you wanted to on the internet. Voice and video has been treated the same as e-mail, no matter the source. The openists' fear is that the providers' tiered system will essentially deny or limit your ability to access some sites.

Their scenario is this - you want to visit 1460 the Fan, but the station has not paid the internet provider money, while a competitor has. You cannot get through to 1460, but the provider lets you get through to the competitor. Your freedom is restricted based upon which companies pay money to the providers.

In a way, this would be very similar to how cable TV operates. I cannot get OLN to watch hockey, or the Do-It-Yourself network, because my cable provider does not offer those channels. Your internet selection would be limited based upon decisions made by the providers.

So, the Openists' solution is to have the government to step in and create regulations that preserve net neutrality. The Deregulationists want the government to stay out of the way and allow the free market system to work.

Normally, I am a free market kind of guy. Government does few things well, and typically regulations increase costs for companies, which are then passed onto you and me, the consumers. But, after reading Charles Wheelan's book "Naked Economics", I am now convinced that in some areas we need government intervention.

When an industry is deregulated, price becomes the primary margin of competition, presumably because consumers care more about price than service (e.g. airline industry). Many times that is good, but not so with all things. As Wheelan states, "anyone who tells you that markets left to their own devices will lead to socially beneficial outcomes is talking utter nonsense." There is great social benefit in allowing internet users the freedom go wherever they want. Based upon the Deregulationist position, a free market will not lead to that outcome.

The Deregulationists say that content providers are using their pipes for free and they are missing out on revenue that is rightfully theirs. They also claim that with this new income stream, they can build a better pipe system for the future.

The Openists say this is hogwash. The companies have benefitted from millions of dollars in public subsidies to lay their pipes on public land, while other industries have been required to pay the government fees to use the land. The companies already pocket fees from content providers, so no one is riding for free. Creating a tiered-system provides no incentive for the Deregulationists to expand the system - keeping a bottleneck of traffic keeps the increased fees coming. Also, the lack of competition gives the companies no incentive to make the system better - because who else can you turn to for internet access in your area?

There are bills in the House and Senate right now which would affect which group's vision of the future becomes reality. Both sides are trying to influence Congress to adopt their position. This is something each blogger and internet user should pay attention to because either way, we are affected. The internet as we currently know it may be in its last days. And if you cannot get a Buckeye game on television, an listening to Paul Keels describe the game on the web may soon not be an option.

No. 1 and Tipping Points

As this blog is titled "More Than Buckeyes", I would be remiss if I did not first address the initial USA Today Coaches' Poll which has Ohio State ranked No. 1. Yea. Woohoo. I think that most of the Buckeye Nation is content with being No. 1 but realize that it doesn't really matter now. Recall 2003 when the Buckeyes opened up at No. 2, and while they their first 3 games, they dropped to No. 5. All that matters is where you are at the end of the season. (E.g., Tennesse, No. 3 in first 2005 poll, finished 5-6).

It did, however, lead me to wonder how many times Ohio State opened up the season as No. 1. I have results of every game from 1968 on, with only Associated Press rankings (as the Coaches' Poll is only a recent creation - beginning in 1991). Ohio State opened up as the No. 1 team four other times - 1969, 1970, 1980 and 1998. They finished 4th, 5th, 15th and 2nd, respectively. In 1969, 1970 and 1998, they lost only one game each year (Michigan, Stanford, and MSU), so that bodes well for 2006 (the 1980 team was coached by Earle Bruce and obligated to finish 9-3).

The fact that Texas is currently ranked No. 2 leads to the potential 1 versus 2 match-up on September 9 (assuming both teams get through their opener and the coaches don't change their minds). So, you ask, how many times have the Buckeyes been involved with a regular season No. 1 v. No. 2 matchup? The Answer - None (since 1967, that is). In the Bowl season, they have been involved in two, which are two of the most famous games in Ohio State history. First was the 1969 Rose Bowl, when the Super Sophs of No. 1 OSU slashed the Juice-led No. 2 Southern Cal Trojans (please note my apologies in failing to avoid the tasteless OJ Simpson pun there). The other was a game you may have heard of - the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, when the No. 2 Buckeyes vanquished the great enemy of the South, Miami, in double OT. I was there for that shining moment.

What about that team up North? Well, none of the great Buckeye-Wolverine matchups involved 1 versus 2. The closest that series came was three matchups of No. 1 versus No. 4 (1973 and 1975 when Ohio State was on top, and 1997 when Michigan won their mythical National Championship).

A No. 1 v. No. 2 matchup in the regular season is so rare, that I have only found 4 such instances in the past 30 years. (1966 - Notre Dame tied Michigan State; 1969 - Texas defeated Arkansas; 1971 - Nebraska defeated Oklahoma; and 1993 - Notre Dame upset Florida State). As I am always looking for some sign that will bring joy to the Buckeye faithful, I offer these tidbits: In each game, the No. 1 was the visitor, just as Ohio State will be the visitor in Austin; the top-ranked team was 2-0-1 in the three games not played at South Bend - I'm eliminating the FSU-ND game because games played at Notre Dame are of questionable statistical value, i.e. strange things happen there. There have probably been other games - 1985/1986 Oklahoma v. Miami, Fl. may be another - but the point is that these games are very rare and the No. 1 team has done well.

Maurice Clarett - Update

Had he taken his one year suspension, and stayed for all 4 years of his eligibility, Maurice Clarett would be a senior at Ohio State this fall. Instead of wearing No. 13 on the No. 1 team, Clarett is being fitted for a longer prison number at the No. 1 penal institution. You see, early Wednesday morning, Mo made an illegal left hand turn in his SUV. When the police flipped on the lights, he did what he used to be very good at - avoided being caught. He led police on a high speed chase and forced them to blowout his tires in order to stop him. Now, you may think that's all, but just like a Ginsu knife offer, there's more. He would not get out of the car, and when he did, he would not cooperate so the police tried to Taser him. A taser works on most people because they don't wear bullet-proof vests! But Clarett was wearing this new fashion accessory and so the police had to use mace to subdue him. This incident, coupled with his upcoming trial for armed robbery - he flashed a gun at two people when he stole their wallets in January - means that my long held prediction needs to be altered. You see, back when the first Clarett problems surfaced in 2003, I predicted that Dateline NBC would do a story on him around 2007, and they would not find him in the NFL, but rather working at a car wash in Youngstown. I now formally amend the location for that prediction to the state penitentiary at Lucasville.

It's a sad and pathetic fall for someone with so much football talent. You wonder where the "Tipping Point" occurred and when Clarett was past the point of being saved. For those of you unfamiliar with "The Tipping Point" - author Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book about little changes that make huge difference, and changes that happend quickly and unexpectedly. He gets the name from epidemiology describing when a virus reaches critical mass. The Clarett situation does not exactly fit with Gladwell's book, but yet I wonder at what in the timeline when Clarett was inevitably headed for destruction? Was it his outburst at the 2003 Fiesta Bowl when he was upset that OSU would not fly him back to Youngstown for a friend's funeral - even though Clarett was terrified of flying? Was it in July of '03 when he filed that police report alleging $10k of stuff stolen from a car he "borrowed" (wink, wink) from a local dealer - a report that turned out to be false? Was it when he was suspended from the team for the 2003 season and then sued to NFL to be eligible for the draft in 2004 - a ruling that was initially granted in his favor, and then overturned? Or, was it not until he was drafted by the Denver Broncos in April 2005, but later cut in August 2005 - because he refused to practice and wanted the trainer fired? At some point

It's possible that the Tipping Point occurred prior to Clarett even enrolling at OSU. Maybe his course was set in stone by then. In that case, we should turn to Gladwell's other best-seller "Blink", which deals with rapid cognition. This is thinking that occurs in the blink of an eye. It is not intuition, but rational thought that occurs on a subconscious level, but thought that we cannot yet verbalize because we are not fully aware of it. As it applies to Clarett, could Tressel and other OSU coaches have looked at Clarett while recruiting him and determined instantly - don't recruit him, he's bad news. Gladwell says we can do this, we do do this, and that we are correct much more often than we are wrong on those instant judgments. This is counter-intuitive thinking as society tells us to "get all the facts" because you "don't judge a book by it's cover." But by getting more facts and taking more time, we rationalize Clarett's behavior and make excuses for it. We also think that we can be the Florence Nightingale and change this talented player's bad habits.

We are seeing that coaches cannot change players and keep them from making magnificent errors in judgment. Open up Espn.com and see what is going on at Oklahoma, Auburn, San Jose State, Miami (Fl.) and other schools this fall. The coaches know these guys are of questionable character, yet the pressure to win and win now is so great, that they look the other way and go against their own good judgment. Clarett may be the most spectacular flame out in College Football history, but he most certainly won't be the last.

Right-wing Media Bias?

Someone actually started a website to detail the "significant conservative to right-wing bias in mainstream U.S. media." I kid you not. Apparently, they ran out of evidence after 1.5 years and folded shop right after the 2004 election. It would be funny except - oh yeah, it is funny.

The First One

If you are reading this then you have stumbled upon it by accident or have way too much time on your hands. Like any other blogger, I think my opinions have value. More than that, I have a variety of interests that connect me with several different sets of people. I also have an unquenchable thirst for knowledge. As I research various topics for my own education, I find that I end up sharing that information with various friends. This blog will continue that trend from a centralized location. In turn, it is hoped that others with similar interests will tune in and find something they like.

For example, Buckeye Commentary (an excellent source for all things Buckeyes) directed me to Blue-Gray Sky, a Notre Dame site which is breaking down OSU's Fiesta Bowl touchdowns in exquisite detail.

Or, if you are not ready for football yet, check out Real Clear Politics' response to Time Magazine's cover story about the end of the Bush doctrine of Cowboy Diplomacy.

The point of this blog is that I have decided to take action and see where it leads. As such, I have decided to follow Steve Pavlina's suggestion of "fire" then "aim."

Hopefully, this blog will be informative and entertaining. If so, it may provide some value to those who read it. Thank you for taking the time to read this first post.